When Dylan Shiel, who is the most maligned he’s ever been and also playing the best football of his career, kicked consecutive fourth-quarter goals to seemingly end Fremantle’s bleak resistance, things started to make a bit of sense for Essendon.
It was a horrible game of football on Saturday night at Marvel Stadium, the type of game you hope that no first-time watcher of the sport is ever beset with.
But Essendon looked like they had escaped – they had wrenched themselves away from the dreadful, drunken arm-wrestle, and finally asserted their class to dismiss the Dockers.
It is never so easy for the Bombers, though. As soon as they pulled away, the Dockers dragged them back into the mud, a series of odd late Fremantle goals prolonging what would have been suspense if any fans or viewers had been interested in anything beyond walking away from this game and never thinking about it again.
Had Jesse Hogan – who was bad on the weekend and seems to be bad two weekends out of three – converted an open snap at the death, the Dockers would have had just over a minute to snatch a comical victory.
The late almost meltdown combined with the painful general play of everything that preceded it only mires Essendon in more uncertainty.
What is clear: the Bombers are not great, not horrible, but they do look great, and they do look horrible.
Something is glaringly absent. But even though it’s glaring, it’s hard to identify exactly what is wrong.
On paper, the team still looks a tier above solid, undoubtedly why the premiership market has accorded Essendon too much respect all season. In the flesh they justify the hype in spurts, when class on the inside combines with pace on the outside and two monsters to kick to inside 50.
But most of the time it’s just plodding. You close off the freeway and Essendon can’t drive on residential roads. Their skill level, broadly, is poor, and they don’t operate with much of a plan.
Too often their performances disintegrate into confused dashes and mistimed passes. Redemption often only comes with individual moments.
A constant at Essendon is the sublime core strength of Shiel and Jake Stringer. Shiel moves like a wonderful mixture of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, powerfully pattering his steps to navigate tight spaces and then bursting away with a mean, upright acceleration. He moves like sporting gods, but outside of the movement, there’s little magic about Shiel, only solid production.
Stringer has become maybe the most special player on the team. His numbers are not astounding, but the threat of him is. The strength in his legs is absurd and he has made holding his ground an art-form. He will never be prolific enough to be a superstar, but his moments are magnificent.
Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images
So too are those of Joe Daniher, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia. The forward line, in stretches, looks like the most menacing in the league. Daniher, when he is on, is more imposing than any other forward in the game. His size is vicious, his talent incomprehensible.
But Daniher’s almost games – like his collection of nearly moments against Fremantle – likely won’t be withstood by his teammates against the best teams.
Daniher’s future is immeasurably bright, and his team’s future is, well, measurably bright – and perhaps a little further in the distance than many thought a month ago.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
It will be disappointing if Daniher has OP again, he has some groin problem and it will take a couple of days to find out. It was surprising that he came back for the Collingwood Anzac Day match in the way he did, no doubt he was very keen to play and that is part of the problem — he needs to be held back. Essendon supporters will be entitled to be upset if he played in that match against medical advice and would be interested to know who drove that decision.
IAP
Guest
Yep. You need to be either highly skilled (ie. Hawthorn, West Coast) or a ball winning machine (ie. Richmond, Bulldogs) to win a premiership. They are neither.
asd
Guest
Few bugs to sort out they will get there
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
He dropped off about round 3. I must admit, the way my teams going this year sometimes I have trouble getting on here the day after at times.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Daniher will never be great until he kicks shots from 30m out in front, a bloke having 10 shots and missing 8 is no good for their own or team morale, total momentum killers. Kennedy has 10 shots he kicks 8.2, Daniher has 10 shots he kicks 3.7 I'd say Daniher is probably the more talented of the two but that counts for little, Kennedy will end up as an all time great, Daniher might be just a Justin Kotshitzke or a Dan Bradshaw if he can't get his kicking sorted out. Good players, not great.
The Brazilian
Roar Rookie
Don't worry about Grumpy Cat, Billbob. He has no sense of humour, rather an inflated sense of self. Keep up the good work.
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
Should read OP flaring up again
Neil from Warrandyte
Roar Rookie
Reported that Daniher won’t play this weekend and perhaps beyond. OS flaring up again.
Powa
Roar Rookie
they have one of the more talented forward lines, and that seems pretty important this year
Billbob
Roar Rookie
Haha your cracking lol round 12 buddy
Cat
Roar Guru
Don't care what some johnny come lately 'recons'
Billbob
Roar Rookie
I recon a weak tiger can run wild on a so called strong cat
Cat
Roar Guru
Don't think a strong side is needed to beat Sydney this year.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I doubt that it is possible to win a premiership in the absence of a dominant backline. At the moment, I see Essendon's backline as middle of the road. I think that they will have to change their current strategy as I do not see it winning enough games during the season to get them into the four. Even if they did get into the top four, free kicks are harder to get in the finals and that negates the opportunity for forwards to score. Consequently, a strategy of high scoring over to cover a weak defence is less successful in a final.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
Seano, good odds ($18, $21?) are available for Daniher to be best on ground and he does rise to big occasions on the MCG.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Interestingly both Langdon and Moore to miss this week. One could argue the Swans get the weakest Pies side all year. No Langdon, Moore, Adams, Cox, Elliott. De Goey to return though and possibly Sier to play his first game of 2019.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I think part of the issue with Ben Rutten is that Richmond with Hardwick has been build around miserly defence. But Essendon has never given the impression that are building forward from the full back. Last year Essendon had the 11th best defence based on points against. This year, they currently run 10th. In relation to the frees issue, Essendon are either badly coached in relation to frees against because for the last couple of seasons they are always in the highest group this year about fourth. Collingwood by comparison are well coached in relation to not leaking frees and have been among the lowest in this stat since Buckley took over. I think that Essendon tolerate frees in order to slow the game and the ball coming out of their forward line. Interestingly, free kick differential is not a good predictor of ladder position but frees against is an effective predictor. This could be that winning teams have the ball longer and are more likely to be infringed. Also that winning teams have a greater spread of talent and players trying to cover good players are more likely to infringe even near goals in the hope that pack frees are less likely to be paid.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
I agree. Buckley made the comment that, the new rules would change the game but was not certain how it would play out. I think that like a couple of others he was already prepared to adjust his strategies according to what he saw from other coaches. Interestingly, after those first three rounds, Collingwood has looked solid despite having been challenged by a number of quite different game plans. I think that the strategy that looks hardest for Collingwood is WCE. And, the match up with players is Geelong.
DJCJ
Guest
Agreed. This is why their midfield need to be more clinical when they get the ball. When they are, they are a dangerous side going forward. YET the Bombers countered the man-on-man arrangement beautifully on Anzac Day. The last ten minutes of the 1st Q was the difference when the Pies kicked 3.2 to 0.0 (lets not mention a couple of holding the ball frees or 2 separate 50sec shot clock allowances to Thomas in the last 3 mins!), so why haven't they been able to replicate that since? They were very disciplined that game and finished it full of running. This is why many observers saw the Anzac Day game (despite the loss) as a turning point for the side - able to play both styles of footy. The "coup" of getting Ben Rutten from Richmond in as defensive coach is not being translated on field it appears.
Fat Toad
Roar Rookie
Collingwood also run some players a long way forward. For this to work you need to be able to trap the ball in the forward zone and then be able retreat quickly. Part of the risk of travelling a long way forward can be managed by have a couple of defenders capable of leaving their man to intercept mark, something that Moore and Langdon have done quite well.I have felt that a lot of the goals scored against Collingwood have been where teams have been able to get the ball out of the defence quickly, St Kilda seemed to be able to do this well in patches last week.