No side has failed to live up to expectations at the Cricket World Cup more consistently than South Africa, and it looks as if the Proteas are in for yet another tournament in which they don’t make the final.
South Africa World Cup squad
Faf du Plessis (c), Aiden Markram, Quinton de Kock (wk), Hashim Amla, Rassie van der Dussen, David Miller, Andile Phehlukwayo, JP Duminy, Dwaine Pretorius, Dale Steyn, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi, Chris Morris, Imran Tahir, Tabraiz Shamsi.
There’s plenty of proven talent in South Africa’s 15-man squad. Seven players, including current skipper Faf du Plessis, were part of the 2015 tournament which ended in that incredible semi-final loss to New Zealand, and some of the new faces – Kagiso Rabada, for example – are bonafide international stars.
The only question prior to the squad announcement was whether Hashim Amla or Reeza Hendricks would be included, and the selectors rightly decided to give the more experienced Amla the nod. Anrich Nortje was originally in the squad, but a fractured thumb saw him ruled out and replaced by Chris Morris.
Strengths
Bowling. Hardly a surprise given which side we’re talking about, is it?
With Dale Steyn, Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi, the Proteas have a fearsome first-string pace trio. Everyone knows Steyn and Rabada’s quality, but having Ngidi, who averages 21 and has a strike rate of 24 in ODI cricket, as the third paceman adds a depth to the attack which few other nations have.
Unusually for a South African side, their best bowler heading into this tournament might be a spinner. 40-year-old Imran Tahir has been enjoying a superb last 12 months in one-day cricket, snaring 23 wickets at an average of 20 and a strike rate of 29.
His miserly economy rate – his overs have cost fewer than 4.5 runs over the past year – gives du Plessis a wonderfully reliable option through the middle overs and at the death.
(AAP Image/David Mariuz)
On top of the four front-liners, Andile Phehlukwayo and Morris are both good bowling all-rounders, and JP Duminy a solid sixth bowling option.
Put simply, it’s an attack few sides in the world can match. But…
Weaknesses
Injuries are casting a menacing shadow over the Proteas’ bowling stocks. At the time of writing, all three of Rabada (back), Steyn (shoulder) and Ngidi (side strain) have fitness clouds lingering over them.
If they’re all passed fit to play, they’ll come into the tournament with little cricket under their belts and no opportunity to get it early on against weaker sides; South Africa play the opening match of the World Cup against England before facing fellow finals contenders India and the West Indies in their third and fourth matches respectively.
Questions, too, surround the side’s batting. While Quinton de Kock is in fine form and du Plessis is a top-tier ODI batsman, this is not as imposing a line-up as the one South Africa fielded in 2015. Losing AB de Villiers has played no small part there, but their issues with the bat go beyond the former skipper’s retirement.
Hashim Amla only managed one half-century and 161 total runs at 32 in South Africa’s dominant series win over Sri Lanka earlier in the year, and Aiden Markram has essentially been picked on domestic, not international, form. While it’s hardly a weak batting order – any side with de Kock, du Plessis and Miller is capable of piling on the runs – there is a sense of vulnerability here which the Proteas didn’t have in 2015.
(AAP Image/Mathew Farrell)
Key player: Quinton de Kock
De Kock is one of the premier limited-overs openers in world cricket. The 26-year-old already has 14 ODI centuries to his name, and despite finding it more difficult to crack the ton in the past couple of years – he’s only made two hundreds in that time – he’s actually become more consistent, averaging over 50 in the past 24 months.
Only Faf du Plessis has scored more one-day runs for the Proteas than de Kock since the start of 2017, but batting up the top of the order, the keeper-batsman is able to impact the game more than his skipper.
If de Kock keeps up his strong form in England, it’ll put opposition attacks on the back foot from the get-go, take pressure off the likes of Amla and Markram, and lay the platform for South Africa’s strong middle order of du Plessis, Miller and Duminy to finish off innings well.
If not, the vulnerability we mentioned earlier will only be more pronounced.
(AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
The verdict: In the mix
South Africa are one of four or five sides capable of filling out the last two semi-final positions (assuming India and England will lock away spots one and two without much trouble) who are terribly hard to separate.
They have the bowling attack and batting talent to put together an excellent tournament, but fitness issues and one or two weaknesses in the top order – not to mention their terrible World Cup record – have us tipping them to finish two places away from the knockout stage.
Prediction: Sixth
Zozza
Guest
I've said it before and I will say it again...of all the "fancied" sides, Englands bowling is close to as weak as the proverbial watery Bat's you know what. They will bomb when the sphincter pressure is on, later in the tournament. You read it here first.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
It is worth considering that a major reason for South Africas poor performances at World Cups is more due to a complete lack of quality spinners throughout than inability to handle pressure. This time round not just 1 but 2 attacking leg spinners. lets see.
Neel
Roar Guru
South Africa might make it to the semis. 6th might be a bit too harsh on them. I could imagine if that pace attack of Rabada, Ngidi, Morris and Steyn (if they are all fit) fire together. That would be a sight to watch for any cricket fan. I reckon they will do better than what a lot of people are expecting.
Josh H
Roar Rookie
Really don't like how high you're putting West Indies, all 3 of Bangladesh, South Africa and Pakistan have by far a more balanced squad on paper than the Windies do South Africa at 6 is just silly
Magic
Guest
No, kar AUS is very firm contender to make the final because of their hard Nature hard means very competitiveness and exactly knows how to win the match even if they score 250 in the semi final so, my question is can England defend 250? Am not sure ,but for AUS am very sure
dat
Roar Rookie
Gayle ,Hetmyer ,Russell, Brathwaite,Evin Lewis, Pooran and Oshane Thomas all were missing from the said series .There would be 4 or 5 chances to their playing 11 from the one that got beat in the tri series final.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
While SA has the strongest bowling attacks going around, the main threat to their chances is their approach to batting – stuck between the 2015 and the avant-grade English approach. On a side-note Ind, Aus, NZ are happy to back the 2015 approach with minor tweaks. Faf advocates batters to go harder – akin to what Morgs did but the SA team has made so many changes and have tried so many batters – that they don’t feel confident in pulling that off in high-pressure situations. So their fortunes get dictated by QdK at the top – if he puts the pressure, the others follow suit, but even then his good 60-70s aren’t backed often enough. The second weakness is the number of games some of the chosen ones have played. In the name of trying all the options for all positions till the very last moment, the selection was kind of a lottery with even Morris (who was pencilled in long back supposedly) not considered for first 15. Guys like Morris, Duminy, Amla as a result of that and injuries havn’t played top-grade cricket for a long time and all 3 will make the starting 11. Coming to where they would finish – I think they are much likely to finish in top 4 rather than 6th. While the batting has problems like just about any other group, their bowling should see them get past NZ, Pak, and others in bottom 5. The batting is also strong enough to withstand the relatively weaker bowling line ups.
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Do not forget Windies have lost 3 times to Bangladesh recently in a Tri-Series at Ireland, they may end-up at the bottom of the Table!
Tanmoy Kar
Guest
Very perfect prediction (6th. place). Though their bowling is quite good, their batting line-up is very poor. Besides England and India, Australia will take the 3rd. slot, for the 4th. slot there will be a fight between Pakistan and New Zealand.
Paul
Roar Guru
Right now, all teams will have only one main goal, Ryan and that's to make the final 4. Anything less that that is effectively writing sides off, IMO. I agree they're not exactly a favourite right now but one game on the 31st of May could change all that. I'm also not sure where the idea of a logjam came from (apart from this article). I'd have thought sides winning at least 7 of 9 early round games will make the final 4 and there are, at best maybe 5 chances who you named, capable of doing that. The other 5 sides will provide plenty of tough cricket but aren't a chance to win enough games to make the finals.
AREH
Roar Guru
I wouldn't call it writing them off; sixth merely a number and a result of the potential logjam that others have mentioned, as the article still lists SA as being in the mix. For mine they are in that second rung with Australia and New Zealand, behind England and India as your favourites at the outset.
The Bush
Roar Guru
I think that series in the Caribbean against England really distorted peoples opinions. To me that was just the perfect storm - an example of why England will lose at least one game during the group stage (because of their risky approach), combined with the Windies ability to pull one off with the bat. But you never know...
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Fair enough TB, as we were writing all these I did start to think we might have overrated the Windies. Still, they held England to a 2-2 series result earlier in the year, so they're certainly capable of having a significant impact this tournament.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
No doubt. An in-form Markram or Amla makes South Africa a far more dangerous side.
The Bush
Roar Guru
I don't think the logjam is there, because I think people are seriously overestimating the Windies. If the Windies are a real semi final contender, then so is Pakistan. South Africa should finish ahead of the Windies (as will Australia). The West Indies may well cause an upset in the group stage, say beating England or India or something like that, but it'll be a one off. They're also likely to do something hilarious like beat England, beat say Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but then go and lose to Afghanistan and Bangladesh... i.e. they're as likely to be a scalp as pick up a scalp.
Paul
Roar Guru
I think Markram is key to their chances. It's obvious sides who can get away to fliers with the bat generally put themselves into winning positions. If Markram comes back into form, he takes pressure off the deKock to score and suddenly that batting lineup doesn't look quite so thin.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
As a Kiwi, Bush, I rate Zampa although he does tend to leak a bit. Starc could be crucial with his towering pace on flat decks, especially if he can get a bit of tail. He showed glimpses in those warm-up games against the Black Caps A team. The batting thing will depend on selections too with the return of Warner and Smith. As you say time will tell but Australia have made some big strides in recent times without those @ and Starc spraying it a bit, and with their record in world cups, should figure...
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
I think there's going to be a real logjam between sixth and third, Paul. Could just be one or two results separating them. The injuries to key bowlers and a lack of batting depth is why we decided to go with SA at six, but you're right, there's every chance they could be right in the mix by the end of the tournament.
bobbo7
Guest
Without ABD I don't see SA winning this. They have a remarkable ability to lose games they should win - just look at the SL test series recently - on paper and form SA should have won easily at home but they lost. If they make the top 4 they can certainly win but I back NZ, Australia, England and India for consistency. I would also have to back Pakistan and WI before SA - both sides can win beat anyone and Pakistan in particular have a habit of winning from nowhere.
Paul
Roar Guru
You're a brave man writing off the Saffers as only worth a 6th place finish Daniel. They have a great ability to play pressure team cricket and when I put their team up against Australia's, there's very little between them, yet most in Oz are banking on Finch's boys making the finals at least. You're 100% right, injuries will dictate their fortunes as will that first game against England to a degree. If they lose but put the frightners up the Poms, that's a great result not only for them, but for other tams in the Cup. If they win, of course their confidence will be sky high and they won't be able to quietly go about their business. At worst they'll finish fifth but I have them as a real chance, depending on what they do in game one.