Bridesmaids last time out, New Zealand have developed into a strong ODI side with a dark horse’s chance at the 2019 World Cup.
New Zealand World Cup squad
Kane Williamson (c), Martin Guptill, Henry Nicholls, Ross Taylor, Tom Latham (wk), Colin Munro, Tom Blundell (wk), Colin de Grandhomme, Mitchell Santner, Jimmy Neesham, Ish Sodhi, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Tim Southee, Trent Boult.
The first team to name their World Cup squad, New Zealand have no shortage of experience in their camp. Skipper Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, Tim Southee and Trent Boult were all key players in the side which made the 2015 final, and there’s plenty of class in tournament newbies like Henry Nicholls and Mitchell Santner.
There were two surprises when the squad was named: Ish Sodhi pipped Todd Astle for the second spinner’s spot, while Tom Blundell was an unexpected pick as backup keeper. Blundell is yet to play an ODI and averages under 30 in List A cricket.
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Strengths
This is a well-balanced side with few notable vulnerabilities. The new-ball pairing of Southee and Boult is one of the most experienced in world cricket. They were critical in guiding the Black Caps to the 2015 decider, and will have to be similarly successful if New Zealand are to have a strong tournament this year.
Santner, while lacking Bolt and Southee’s experience, is a quality spinner capable of keeping the run rate in check, although he’d do well to add more of a wicket-taking threat to his repertoire.
The batting unit, too, has plenty of class and experience about it. Williamson is constantly mentioned in the top handful of batsmen in the modern game, and his textbook perfect technique doesn’t make him a slow scorer against the white ball.
Martin Guptill has a World Cup double century to his name, Henry Nicholls is turning into an international star, and Ross Taylor has one of the most impressive ODI resumes in the competition.
There’s not a lot of flashiness to the side, but there is plenty of quality there.
(Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)
Weaknesses
The lack of a world-class all-rounder could hurt New Zealand. Jimmy Neesham is a middling player who isn’t more than a serviceable bit-part contributor, and while Colin de Grandhomme boasts considerable hitting ability, he’s not suited to doing much more than finishing off an innings with the bat, and his military mediums could be found wanting on England’s small grounds.
They leave the batting depth wanting and put pressure on the likes of Williamson, Guptill and Taylor to bear the brunt of the batting load. This isn’t a side well equipped to deal with early collapses. They were found out on that front against India earlier in the year, when their four losses all came on the back of sub-par efforts with the bat.
Colin Munro’s form is another headache. He’s an elite T20 hitter but hasn’t been able to perform in the ODI arena so far, averaging just 25 for his career (and 22 in the last 12 months).
There’s scarcely a more ideal time for him to find his feet, and if he does, the Kiwis will boast one of the most imposing opening partnerships in the tournament. If not, they’ll have a batting line-up which lacks depth compromised further by a brittle opening partnership.
Wanted: a reliable opening partner for Martin Guptill. (Ross Setford/SNPA via AP)
Key player: Trent Boult
Few players are as much of a joy to watch for bowling purists as Trent Boult. New Zealand’s spearhead is capable of swinging the ball both ways, has a solid arsenal of change-up options, and produces unplayable deliveries as regularly as anyone else.
While another left-armer stole most of the headlines in 2015, Boult’s World Cup four years ago was outstanding. He actually took as many wickets as Mitchell Starc, although he played nine games compared to the Australian’s eight. Regardless, 22 wickets at an average of 16.8, strike rate of 23 and economy of 4.3 at that tournament tells us Boult is more than capable of rising to the big occasion.
New Zealand have more frailties with the bat than the ball, but a potentially vulnerable order will have far less pressure on it if Boult and the rest of the attack are able to restrict their opponents to sub-par totals. Thankfully for the Black Caps, their strike bowler is capable of doing just that.
The verdict: Tournament smokeys
Along with our last two sides, South Africa and the West Indies, New Zealand are just as capable of finishing sixth as they are of winning the entire thing. Their eventual tournament finish will no doubt fall somewhere in between.
This is a side which has almost as many top-tier players as any other – Williamson, Boult, Guptill, Taylor and Southee would walk into just about ODI XI – and that elite core is capable of beating anyone on their day. However, there’s not enough depth in the squad to go all the way.
Prediction: Semi-finalists
jose
Roar Rookie
Usually NZ punch above their weight in World Cups, but i am not expecting them to do it again. NZ batting is inexperienced in my opinion, except Taylor, KW and Guptill. and see how the bowlers suffered at the hands of West Indies yesterday. Southee is inconsistent, only Boult they can rely upon. Henry gave over 100 against Windies and i am not sure if he play first game. Santner is a defensive bowler at best. And Collin Munro is just another T20 hitter as far as i am concerned. Doesnt have a good record against the top 4 teams – just 2 Fifties against England, India, Australia and South Africa. NZ’s batting definitely is over dependent on Taylor and Kane, if those 2 guys are dismissed cheaply, then it will be very tough for NZ. My prediction – 5th or 6th.
bobbo7
Guest
I reckon a solid NZ performance is good enough to beat most teams - they have world class in Guptill, Williamson, Taylor, Boult and to a lesser degree Southee. Nichols, Latham Neehsam are not mugs either. The win over India in the warm up was solid and clinical without any outstanding peformances
Neel
Roar Guru
The two Colins are the concerns. Especially Munro. Hopefully, he clicks, otherwise, Williamson basically becomes an automatic opener and we will be batting with 9 wickets at the start of each innings. As for the All-rounder slot, I reckon Neesham will be a key and I would back him to perform Daniel. He is a clean striker of the ball, solid fielder and his bowling comes in handy. Unfortunately he has been a bit injury prone in the past, but I reckon he will have a decent tournament. He ain’t world class yet but he will be good.
Neel
Roar Guru
Paul this comment is really good. The first three games are the games NZ should really win. But anything can happen at the World Cup, so we will wait and see.
Zozza
Guest
You mention Maxwell for the Aussies...haven't seen him score a run against the Kiwis. Bit of a bogey side. Everyone is picking England. Not me. Rubbish bowling attack. Any score they get, can, and most probably will be run down in the nitty gritty big games against the big boys. Im picking an Australian / India, or Australia / NZ final, or NZ / India final. Oh and South Africa...no Morkel or A.B -- forget about them.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
I'll hold off on writing Munro off just yet. He clearly has the talent, and World Cups can - and often have - lead to breakout performances.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Depends on the pitch Brian. Sodhi's likely to be interchangeable with de Grand Designs or Southee if there's swing. I'd have Henry figuring more given his recent season there with Kent where he topped the wickets table. They're gonna give Munro a run tho; probably early to see if he can middle it. Don't think you're too far off the money tho...
Brian
Guest
Munro is a lost cause for me. Against the better sides I'd have Guptill, Nicholls, Williamson, Taylor, Latham, Neesham, Santner, Sodhi, Southee, Ferguson, Boult. That XI has a long tail but its their best chance of upseting the best teams.
Brian
Guest
No 7 is a worry I fear batsman could tear Neesham or De Grandolme bowling. Otherwise English conditions should suit them being similar to New Zealand. Geoff Allot had an unremarkable career except being bowler of the World Cup last time it was in England.
bobbo7
Guest
NZ's tournament comes down to this... If two of Williamson, Taylor, Guptill play well they have a very good shot. While I would have taken a fit Seifert over Munro if fit, If Munro can get going NZ will be in a very strong position. I also think Neesham is more than handy. He made a good ton in the domestic final and is more than a lower order slogger. Again, if two of the top 3 bats play well there will be a good platform for CDG, Neesham and Santner to tee off. I would be disappointed if NZ does not make the semis
Paul
Roar Guru
hi Daniel, I'm guessing 7 wins will get a side automatic entry into the finals and that's where the Black Caps have those crucial two games in the middle of their draw, one of which they MUST win. I'm thinking the Saffers game is their best chance, which only leaves a win against Australia ( quite possible) or England ( possible if they play out of their skins) and they're in the finals
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
A good analysis, Paul. Certainly a favourable draw compared to, say, South Africa, who start with some tough matches. Speaking of, that Black Caps vs Proteas clash is going to be a critical one. Should have plenty of bearing on who makes the semis.
Daniel Jeffrey
Editor
Completely agree r.e. Munro, Riccardo. He should be such a good ODI player, it's a shame he's not been able to perform up to his ability in the format. If he fires, New Zealand suddenly look an awfully dangerous side.
Paul
Roar Guru
The draw the Black Caps have been given probably suits them and their issues; making sure guys are in form and getting the right combinations for the harder games. Their first three games are against Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan, with all being must wins but a chance to clear away some ODI cobwebs. They then have two tough games against India & South Africa where they must win at least one of these. The finish the tournament with games against Australia & England and don't want to sweating on results going their way to make the finals. Once they make the knockout stage, they're as good a chance as any to win the lot.
Targa
Guest
I agree about Munro. His bowling is pretty handy if he plays - but just needs to put away the slogs - such a quality T20 player with an amazing first class record but has really, really struggled in ODIs.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Interesting comment on Southee Targa. I've been shot down for suggesting the same. If it's swinging he may get the nod but I'd back Matt over there after his season with Kent. And I can see games where we are playing 2 spinners as well; if these pitches are as flat as I'm suspecting the slower guys will come into their own. Finally Munro may be useful!
The Bush
Roar Guru
It's actually a classic New Zealand line up, though perhaps they've not generally had players of Boult and Williamson's class. There's a decent XI there and they could definitely make the semis, but when you actually look a bit closer at the overall line up it's got some serious flaws. Doing a direct comparison, Warner and Guptill have pretty similar records, but either of Finch or Khawaja is likely to do a better job than Guptill's partner. They have Williamson at first drop and he's probably better than any ODI batsmen we presently have, though if Warner can recapture his form pre-banning he's just as good. Ross Taylor is in the form of his life and may be the best bat in either side, but Smith is hardly a mug. It's Maxwell that changes things in Australia's favour further down the order. As to the bowling, Boults good, but so are our quicks and I personally think Southee is a little overrated. In the spinning stakes Zampa's record is about the same as Santar's, so we don't lose much there. Overall you'd have to say Australia and New Zealand have pretty even line ups, but with slightly different strengths (we've got better quicks and Maxwell, they've got a better 3-4 combo and will bat a bit deeper, but with less explosive power).
Targa
Guest
Nice article which sums the strengths and weaknesses well. Tom Blundell was an interesting selection for back up keeper. Tim Seifert and Glenn Phillips are exciting shotmakers but keeping can be sloppy, BJ Watling is a quality keeper and batsman at test level but gets bogged down and scores too slowly, while Dane Cleaver is yet to play for NZ. Anyway Latham is injured so Blundell will play the warm-ups and perhaps first couple of WC matches. I doubt Southee will get that many starts. Matt Henry will take the new ball with Boult and Lockie Ferguson will bowl first change. If the pitches turn I'd like to see Ish Sodhi in for Henry as a 2nd spinner and De Grandhomme swinging the new pill at 125 kms. Finally for anyone in NZ it is good to see the warm-ups are being televised live. The game v India is on Sky and Prime live tomorrow (Sat) night.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
As a Black Caps fan I have some concerns. Munro – Hasn’t fired a shot all summer and was selected ahead of Young, who troubled Australia in the warm up games and looks to be a great prospect; he needs surgery but this could have waited. Blundell looks to be keeper cover but this could have gone to Seifert or even part-timers already selected which would have created space for another batsman. Ish vs Astle is curious too. Sodhi appears to offer more upside with the ball but IMO still offers a 4 ball an over and nothing with the blade compared to Todd and we are light further down the order already. But if there’s some turn Ish can take wickets. Santner, de GrandDesigns and Neesham will be vital from my stand-point. All need to contribute with ball and bat. Neesh has showed some good signs as has Santner but Colin needs to more than blaster although his military mediums have proved useful in those middle stanzas. As for all teams fielding will be crucial on these small grounds with predominantly flat decks and while these boys can be great in this regard they were shabby against India. Another of the Black Caps issues has been the death bowling and I’m curious to see how they address this too. Lockie can generate real heat but if it’s not in the right areas or varied enough he’ll go to the fence and I wonder if a lack of pace means the batsmen having to generate power will create mistakes. While Lovely Trenty is a sensible pick as a key player this is a team all about the sum of their parts. Individuals are great and we could suggest Guptill up front, Taylor in the middle, Neesham’s progress as he returns to form and Kane’s required improvement with the blade it’s their cohesion and belief as a group that is key for me. It’s a good side with some balance as long as selection is well taylored but I can see them struggling against the elite teams come crunch time, especially if there’s no swing. On a final note: I thought the 2015 tournament was a great watch and am concerned with the pitches we have seen so far. I know the ICC apparently governs their preparation but only 2 weeks our they were pancake roads generated for big scores. An absence of bat vs ball contest would make for poor viewing for this spectator.