Over the first five rounds, there were a total of 18 games that were predicted to be won by one team by every single one of the 21 sources we track – some human predictors, some punter or writer aggregates, some computer systems – and nine of them lost.
That’s when I declared this season unpredictable and sought to prove my point by betting against the consensus favourite in every case in Round 6. Eight of the nine games were unanimous, and the ninth pitted Adelaide against St Kilda.
Round 6, of course, produced chalk across the board with all eight unanimous favourites winning, and an Adelaide victory made me 0-9 when the consensus went 8.5 for the week.
Since then, there have been 14 more unanimous favourites, and they’ve gone 13-1. The Bulldogs’ upset of Richmond in Round 7 was the loan upset.
The footy world is back upright again. If they look like a favourite, we should back them like a favourite.
At least until the topsy-turvy world returns.
North Melbourne vs Richmond
Professional point spread: Tigers by 23.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Tigers by 10.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Tigers.
The Buffalo says: Richmond are top four with a bullet despite Alex Rance’s Round 1 injury, and I’m not betting against them until they face a team above them. Tigers by several goals, at least three.
Collingwood vs Fremantle
Professional point spread: Magpies by 29.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Magpies by 32.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Magpies.
The Buffalo says: Collingwood’s on a seven-game win streak, and there will come a day when they’ll get upset and it’ll end. On that day, I’ll lose my bet, because I’m taking them every game until then.
Greater Western Sydney vs Gold Coast
Professional point spread: Giants by 48.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Giants by 50.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Giants.
The Buffalo says: The problem with this spread is the same as it was last week for both teams. After a while, the Giants will take the foot off the pedal, and it’s hard to imagine this Suns team pulling a Carlton and losing by 90. Take the Giants but not the points.
Stephen Coniglio (right) and Josh Kelly of the Giants. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Geelong vs Sydney
Professional point spread: Cats by 32.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Cats by 34.5.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Cats.
The Buffalo says: Geelong haven’t had a bad game yet, though of course some have been better than others. Sydney can’t handle them, with or without Franklin.
Cats by at least 20, because 20 seems to be about their comfort zone. Except for two tight games against the Pies and Giants – the other really good teams – and one 80-point blow-out against Melbourne, their wins have been by 24, 23, 58, 32, 24, 44, and 27.
Five of the seven fall between 23-32 points – that seems pretty normal for them.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn
Professional point spread: Lions by 8.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Hawks by 3.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Lions.
The Buffalo says: This is the only questionable game of the weekend. The other eight are fairly obvious, but this feels like it might be the third one-point game in a row for Brisbane.
If it is, I’ll take the Lions to turn it around at home against the Hawks – last year, they completely had Hawthorn’s number, winning by 90 points over two games.
Melbourne vs Adelaide
Professional point spread: Crows by 4.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Crows by 15.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Crows.
The Buffalo says: Melbourne happened to be in a hot spell when they annihilated Adelaide last year. Don’t expect this Demons team to repeat that beat down.
Adelaide are getting relatively good this year, despite the loss to West Coast last week at home, and Melbourne are the team that scored their second goal last Sunday midway through the third quarter, when the Giants had put their cue in the rack. Crows plus the points.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide
Professional point spread: Power by 14.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Power by 13.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Power.
The Buffalo says: St Kilda looked okay against the 1-8 Blues, winning by less than predicted. Port are not Carlton, and 14 is about right for a neutral site.
But considering that Port have familiarity with this particularly unusual road trip and the Saints don’t, I’d bet that the Power win by a couple of extra goals – let’s say 25-30 points or so.
Essendon vs Carlton
Professional point spread: Bombers by 18.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Bombers by 34.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Bombers.
The Buffalo says: I have very little faith in the Bombers. And I love watching Carlton improve and play together more and more every week. But I need to stop betting in favour of a 1-9 team that have won three games in two years. Bombers by the 18, not the 34.
West Coast vs Bulldogs
Professional point spread: Eagles by 29.5.
ELO-Following Football spread: Eagles by 24.5.
Percentage/Home Field advantage method: Eagles.
The Buffalo says: The Eagles have dominated this fixture of late, and I don’t see any reason for that to change quite yet.
With the exception of a 17-point upset of Hawthorn, the Bulldogs have lost their three other games on the road so far this season by 19, 14, and 44 points.
And with the exception of the 52-point annihilation of GWS in Round 2, the Eagles have won all three games at home this season by 13, 23, and 16 points.
So a victory of something in that 24-point range for the Eagles seems called for. We’ll take the 24.5-point spread – after all, the ELO-FF numbers have done far better than I have this year.
Professionals: 7 last week, 58 overall.
ELO-Following Football: 6 last week, 59 overall.
Percentage/HFA method: 6.5 last week, 50.5 overall (predicted a draw between Port/Hawks).
The Buffalo: 5 last week (I liked Carlton and Brisbane), 44 overall.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Hey Pete Do you think Freo travelling to Victoria off a 6 game break will enable the Pies (at home off an 8 day break) to close the gap...or do you think my boys will still be too good?
Nolan
Guest
Kangaroos on paper should wallop Richmond bahahaha. Let’s be clear in footy anything can happen especially now with a likely response from the players with a new coach, but the kangas downing Richmond can only be classified as an upset. Control the ruck? Yeah sure but which team doesn’t against the Tigers? Haven’t lost much in the past 2 and a half seasons so teams seem to be struggling with this easy to execute formula to beat them. Hawks were not beating the tigers before McEvoy went down, I mean even when they were a great side and the Tigers were avg, richmond were beating them more often than not let alone now when the roles are reversed. Besides the kangas don’t have the foot skills that the other teams you mentioned have.
Slane
Guest
Play tall, take marks and move the ball accurately by foot and you are halfway to beating the Tigers. They can't pressure players that they arent allowed to tackle. On the Bulldogs game, it didn't help that Hardwick thought he could get away without bringing in another tall defender against the Doggies, also. Astbury went out injured and Hardwick chose not to bring in Garthwaite for some reason. He went with Menadue. The Tigers are already the shortest team in the comp, they couldn't contain the Bulldogs with only 2 'talls' in Grimes and Broad. Both of who would generally be considered a little undersized for the key back position.
Brian
Guest
There is definately a formula to beating the current Richmond side. You play taller, dominate markings and win clearances. Pies did it, Dogs did it and Hawks were doing it until McEvoy went down. North should be good enough to do the tall's part its just whether they can keep Martin on a leash so they dominate clearances.
Bruce
Guest
Yep could happen. 2nd string players usually lift when the assistant takes over.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Keepings off, dominated disposals, clearance and stoppage. Kept Lynch out of it while Naughton came of age. Bont was sublime as well.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
How did the Dogies win?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
The Pies didn't burst through Richmond's defensive pressure, they simply played keepings off until a suitable leading target was found. Then, if necessary, they retreated back and tried again. The Tigers couldn't get hold of the ball and this helped their own structure break down. I thought Bucks outcoached Dimma that day and then Bevo completely outfoxed him too in the Dogs game.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I really hope they do Pope. Would be great to see. Cotchin appears back though. There are good reports about Rhyce Shaw as a lateral thinker. I hope he lets them play offence footy with some joy and abandon, within the requirements of defence when required. Go North.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
By the way, indulgences weren't prays. It is what they paid the bishops and popes to get on Gods good side. Basically a bribe.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Richmond are always vulnerable if you can burst through their defensive pressure. They are not going to score highly themselves. It could be interesting. North really need to take them on, particularly with centre bounces. I wouldn't put my hard earned on a North win.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
More science than prayers. North should control the ruck. They get enough of the ball and Richmond won't be able to combat the plethora of forwards North have. Whilst the fascination with Richmond doing well with all their kiddies despite all the outs is interesting, on paper, North should wallop them.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
All the home teams except North and Melb.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
It is possible with North’s ability to score and the usual win after coach dumping. You might need to sell some indulgences to make it happen.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
North will take Richmond to the cleaners.
WCE
Roar Rookie
just heard Petrucelli might be rested with Ainsworth coming in or the debut of Jarrod Cameron
Larrikin
Roar Rookie
Jetta in for Nelson and Matty Allen might get his first run for the club which is well overdue. West Coast by 45