It only takes a cursory glance at the Carlton BigFooty board to see their fans have lost hope.
The actual Carlton board is becoming increasingly frustrated with the nagging line of questioning adopted by the media, exemplified by Chris Judd’s testy responses to Caro and Hutchy on Footy Classified last Monday. Brendon Bolton’s mum would have trouble defending him at the minute.
Carlton’s president, Mark Logiudice, has been relatively inconspicuous, relying on the cachet Judd has with Carlton fans to allay concerns over the coach. Initially, this was a wise approach but the strategy has run its course as Carlton’s abysmal recent record threatens to overwhelm the club.
Carlton appears to be making an age-old mistake struggling clubs continually repeat of relying on other clubs’ experiences sacking coaches. It’s usually a copout to buy time, avoiding tough but necessary decisions because clubs fear making a bad situation worse.
But the bad old days of the likes of Graeme Richmond sacking coaches on a whim are well and truly over. Clubs are mostly well run with devolved power structures that avoid decision-making being put in the hands of a solitary figurehead. People point to Richmond not sacking Damian Hardwick after 2016 or St Kilda not sacking Alan Richardson last year as evidence that clubs should wait it out, prizing stability, however, those scenarios were entirely different to Carlton’s predicament.
Richmond had made finals the three years prior to 2016 and, although ultimately disappointing, had been building under Hardwick. St Kilda had been building also, recording 12 wins in 2016 and 11 wins in 2017 off a base of six in 2015 before plummeting to four wins in 2018 off the back of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna’s departures leaving a gaping hole in leadership.
The Saints have somewhat righted the ship at 5-5 this season but no one could definitively claim Richo has proved the Saints right to hold on to him just yet. Bolton has no such record of improvement to point to. How long can you hold on to the “green shoots” Bolton speaks of when you’re 4-38 in your last 42? When you’re 1-9, two games safe with the spoon in hand and a percentage of only 77?
Does Carlton’s percentage improving from 64 to 77 amount to “green shoots”? Hardly. The only shooting Carlton should be talking about is shooting Bolton from a cannon into the sun.
To be fair, Bolton has had misfortune. The loss of Bryce Gibbs and Matthew Kreuzer and Sam Docherty’s ongoing troubles have hamstrung a list with little to no depth. But doesn’t Carlton’s reliance on players like Gibbs, who has had a couple of standout seasons in his career, and Kreuzer, who is an inspiring, but ultimately just above average ruckman, say it all?
Those are issues of recruiting as well, and SOS is rightly coming in for a lot of blame, but the job of a coach is to maximise the talent at his disposal.
Who has actually developed on Carlton’s list in Bolton’s time? Jacob Weitering has only started to show signs this year, much later than would be expected of a pick 1. Zac Fisher is a great find and will be part of any future Carlton success. Patrick Cripps is a superstar but he would likely have been successful anywhere and is a credit to the recruiting term moreso than Bolton.
Harry McKay is a serious bright spot and looks to have the swagger to one day lead the forward line. Beyond that, it’s slim pickings.
Charlie Curnow has gone backwards significantly this year and Sam Petrevski-Seton struggles to string games together. These players are young and should become very good but the stilted rate of development suggests either problems with the environment or that Bolton isn’t getting through to the players.
Ultimately, Bolton is responsible and the side being worse three and a half years in than when he began is more than enough evidence to send him on his way.
Stability is extremely important for football clubs. But stability is meaningless when your club is incapable of winning games. To even think about becoming stable you have to get a good coach. Bolton inherited an awful list at a club coming off traumatic sackings of Mick Malthouse and Brett Ratten, but he has shown nothing to suggest he will be a good senior coach.
His public comments haven’t given any indication he knows how to get out of this mess beyond the tiresome corporate buzzwords he peddles like a middle manager. Making matters worse, the messaging hasn’t changed to reflect his own and the club’s shortcomings either. He was still yammering about not being taken “off course” after Carlton’s most recent loss to a St Kilda that is just going.
Exactly what course is Carlton on? Is that the course where you don’t make meaningful improvements in three and a half years? It’s not much good being on course when you’re broken down on the side of the road, a million miles from your destination and no help in sight. Some more trite offerings include “we want strong accountability around”, “we’ve been really transparent” and “we needed to connect better centre forward”.
Sleep-inducing dribble, the lot of it. Also, we’re not playing hockey, Brendon, so spare me with the centre forward nonsense. You could be forgiven for thinking Bolton’s comments are designed to induce numbness, to deaden the listener to the reality of how bad Carlton has been under his tenure.
I’ll employ a buzzword of my own: circuit-breaker, which is exactly what Carlton needs, and can only mean sacking the coach before an entire season of development is wasted once again.
If Carlton were to follow any club, the experience of North Melbourne and Brad Scott is instructive. North could have taken the easy option of stability but they have avoided the bitterness typical of sackings and Scott leaves the club on good terms. Although Scott reportedly went to North seeking a release, Carlton could do the reverse with Bolton to work out an amicable departure.
Bolton probably wouldn’t agree to that given he’s only three and a half years in as opposed to Scott’s near decade, but in that event Carlton’s decision becomes even easier. 12 games is a sizeable chunk that Carlton could use to try young players in new positions and maybe, just maybe, start winning a few games.
(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
I don’t see what Carlton has to gain from keeping Bolton. They look listless, the fans have lost hope and, if they’re not careful, the players will too. Getting rid of the coach will give them longer to assess prospective coaches and to put the feelers out for the likes of Brett Ratten and Alastair Clarkson. Clarkson might be a stretch but when you’re in as dire a spot as Carlton you’d be foolish not to explore every avenue. They could even have a dip at luring Paul Roos ‘Off the Couch’.
That brings me to Ratten. It might sound crazy but Carlton could create the new Blues by calling on one of the old. This wouldn’t be a case of picking a favourite son for the sake of it as Ratten is highly regarded for his work at Hawthorn during their premiership run.
The decision to knife Ratten for Malthouse was driven by old Carlton arrogance and enmity, partly motivated by a desire to get one over hated rival Collingwood, but in the process they sacrificed a premiership hero who is the only coach to have had Carlton play a strong brand since the salary cap scandal.
If there is no sensible argument for keeping your coach other than stability, then it’s time that coach was removed. Carlton can solve a problem and right a wrong by giving Ratten back the job he never should have lost.
Do that and we’ll start hearing the Blues faithful belting out da da-da da-da a bit more often.
Will Cuckson
Roar Rookie
Fair enough to question bringing in Fasolo (a terrible move) and most of those ex-Giants (I'd say at this stage Plowman, Marchbank, Setterfield and Kennedy have been to some extent worthwile), but I'd say no matter who the list manager was they would've drafted both Jack and Ben Silvagni anyway.
Seymorebutts
Roar Rookie
I posted this somewhere else but the guy clubs should be looking at very closely is Peter Sumich. He has had very good results with young players. Theres an interview of him on youtube somewhere discussing his career (on the couch?) and the guy knows his stuff.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Carlton should confirm Bolton as coach for the rest of 2019 announcing no decision will be made on the coach's future until season's end. Nevertheless, quietly checking the availability of a suitable replacement in case they decide to release Bolton.
The Salamander
Guest
Scott isn't on my personal A-list. He's welcome to apply for the job when it opens, but I think there are better options: * Lyon, Longmire, and Clarkson could potentially be persuaded to leave their current clubs. Longmire would probably rather go to North, and Clarkson probably won't want to be involved in the sacking of his former second-in-command, but Lyon has strong connections inside the club. * Ratten and Caracella would be the pick of the current assistants. * I think Paul Roos is a lot more gettable than he's letting on. Sure, Scott is a competent enough coach, but I don't see any reason to prefer him over any of the above.
The Salamander
Guest
It’s not a rebuild from the ground up. If it was then that’s an indictment on Lyon to let a team get into that position to begin with. You don't like Ross very much, do you?
The Salamander
Guest
Overall, SOS' recruiting has been pretty good. You could question the overall strategy, but in terms of actual picks, his strike rate has been solid, especially at the draft (and of course he was going to take his sons as Father/Sons – there would have been riots in the streets in Carlton if he hadn't). As to the trades/free agents: * 2015: Kerridge, Plowman, Lamb, Phillips, and Sumner, for, effectively, Troy Menzel, who is no longer on an AFL list. Plowman is an integral part of our back six, and Phillips is a solid backup ruckman. The other three are no longer with us, but they were an improvement on the players they replaced, and gave useful service over the course of a couple of years. And hey, it's not like they cost us much. Also picked up Matthew Wright as a delisted free-agent, who was a handy player for us over the course of two or three years. * 2016: Marchbank, Pickett, and Smedts for, effectively, Zach Tuohy. Smedts didn't work out, but he was steak knives anyway; Like Plowman, Marchbank is an integral part of our back six, and Pickett has shown potential as a small forward, if he could just get his body right. * 2017: Kennedy and Lang for... not very much (I can't remember exactly off the top of my head, but I do remember that we didn't give up an awful lot). Both question marks at this stage – could end up working out, could end up as complete busts – but either way, they didn't cost too much. Also got Lobbe for essentially nothing – at worst, an okay backup for the backup ruck, and is by all accounts a good influence on the younger players. * 2018: Setterfield for not that much – coming off an ACL, he's had a slow start to the year, but he's young and has shown enough potential to give this one a provisional tick; Newman for a late pick – definite tick; McGovern for a first-round pick – provisional tick; Fasolo as a free agent – a cross at this stage, but it's not like he cost us anything. So, not a perfect strike rate, but on the whole, SOS has traded some good players into the club without giving up that much in return. A cursory look through his drafting history will reveal a lot more ticks than crosses on that front, but if you want to stick with the (baseless) claim that his recruiting has been poor, I'm happy to go through it pick by pick and show you that you're wrong. The only thing that I would question is the overall strategy of focussing almost exclusively on youth, which is leaving our young players exposed in-game (fielding a team that is so young has also meant being super-uncompetitive, which has meant the players haven't been learning how to win). You're right that LoGiudice and SOS are friends, and that the former isn't about to sack the latter. But SOS hasn't actually done anything to warrant being sacked, so that's fine by me.
The Salamander
Guest
I get the impression that some people think the club is still being run by the same people who were in charge back then – this is not the case. Certainly, mistakes were made in that period, especially with recruiting, but everyone involved has long since moved on from the club.
Wise Old Elf
Guest
Very good point. Bolton can only use the tools at his disposal. If you look at the jokers SoS has brought in I really question his nous. Fasolo, all those dodgy ex-Giants, his sons. Problem is the president is a mate of SoS. He will just say the coach didn't develop them.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
One would hope the BigFooty board and the club board are not relfective of each other, and that goes for all clubs. As for Bolton. he may be a problem but is not the problem. Carlton have been trash for 10 of the last 15 years, and I think it was mediocre in four, and good in one. They are now on their (at least) fourth coach - including two premiership coaches - in that period. Pagan was hamstrung by the loss of draft access following the salary cap scandal, but that ahs washed through multiple coaches since with little pick-up. Whatever the problems are, coaching may or may not be part of it - but it clearly extends well beyond the coach.
anon
Roar Pro
It's not a rebuild from the ground up. If it was then that's an indictment on Lyon to let a team get into that position to begin with. If Lyon doesn't get any criticism for making his side uncompetitive, then Chris Scott shouldn't receive any compliments for keeping his side competitive. Fremantle could easily be 4-7 right now. They've had Fyfe, Mundy, Walters. Walters best small forward/midfielder in the league right now. Fyfe probably best player in the league. They've had Hogan, Lobb, McCarthy, Hamling, Wilson fall in their lap. A North Melbourne or Suns would be happy with one of those guys coming to their club, Fremantle have had all of them. Throw in a bunch of high draft picks, how low are expectations if you don't demand finals with all that talent. To miss finals four years in a row would be a total disgrace. North Melbourne has Cunnington as their best midfielder for crying out loud.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
I harped for two years that Freo will improve when oldies Sandilands, Ballantyne, Johnson and D.Pearce along with Suban, Sutcliffe and Sheridan are not playing you will see a good side........ I feel good today.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Good one Kane, David King want's Lyon at the Roos he reckons they are really cashed up. Go Roos !
The Salamander
Guest
You're the only person I've ever heard saying that a rebuilding club's pass mark is 11 wins for the year. That's an unrealistically high bar when you have a team full of kids. Sure, 4 wins may be "diabolical". It also only happened once. Besides, what happened right before that "diabolical" year? They won the minor premiership. I seriously doubt they thought their list would fall off the demographic cliff heading into 2016 (losing Fyfe for most of the season didn't help, either). Maybe you could argue that they should have looked at their age profile and seen it coming. But put yourself in their shoes: coming off a minor premiership, they would have looked at their ageing list and thought "let's have one more roll of the dice", not "oh well, let's give up and rebuild". Yes, it was clear early in the season that they weren't playing finals. There was also nothing their recruiting team could do about that until the off-season. One bad year, two okay ones, and then finals. I don't care what you say, that's a great rebuild. And it's not just Carlton who would kill for that: Melbourne, St. Kilda, and Brisbane have all taken much longer, and been much more painful.
Kane
Guest
Jonboy if Ross Lyon ever coaches Carlton then I'll be following GWS.
The Salamander
Guest
My read on the situation is that they probably thought they'd be around the upper-end of the bottom six (13th to 15th). That generally means winning about 6 to 8 games, which is not too hard an ask: just beat your fellow bottom-sixers, and be competitive when playing against the middle six (perhaps claiming the occasional scalp), and you're basically there. Given that they traded in 4 mature-age recruits (Newman, McGovern, Fasolo, and Setterfield), all of whom would have been expected to slot into our best 22, plus we thought we'd be getting Docherty back, and with another pre-season into our youngsters (year-on-year improvement tends to happen pretty quickly when they're that age), I think this was an entirely realistic aim.
anon
Roar Pro
If you believe Fremantle didn't use 2016 as a rebuild then that's on them for not being decisive. It was pretty clear early in the 2016 season that they weren't playing finals. 11 wins is a pass mark. A team should get 11 wins or better every other year otherwise they are doing something really wrong. Especially well resourced team that can easily attract WA-born players back to their home state with little effort. We're not talking the Suns, North or St Kilda here. 4 wins is just diabolical. Missing finals three years running is a massive red flag. I think you're comparing every "rebuild" to Carlton. That's not normal and not something to compare yourself to. The fair comparison for Fremantle would be with the Geelongs or West Coasts or Adelaides.
The Salamander
Guest
Still a lot better than Carlton... But I probably could have phrased that better. I didn't mean that they hadn't had any bad games, but finishing with 4 wins (16th), 8 wins (14th), and another 8 wins (14th again) is a good effort for a rebuilding team. And the rebuild didn't really start in earnest until the 2016 off-season, so you could arguably discount the 4-win season anyway. And now they're looking every chance to play finals this year. Carlton fans would kill for that kind of progress.
anon
Roar Pro
They had four wins in 2016, lost by 133 points and had 23 straights goals kicked on them in round 22 last year.
Redmond Dobson
Roar Rookie
It’s also swings and roundabouts, cycles and all that. Melbourne looked like they were a chance to pack it in during the Neeld era; just last year they were the most exciting team in the comp. Carlton will turn it around eventually, I just don’t think Bolton will play a part in that
Redmond Dobson
Roar Rookie
Yeh I actually think SOS’s job was more difficult than Bolton’s. Bolton has the opportunity to work with players year-round whereas SOS only gets a small window to improve the list each year. There’s some talent starting to accumulate but the depth is still awful, maybe worst in the league. Do you think a realistic appraisal of Carlton would’ve had them finishing bottom 3, even if they’d improved a fair bit?