So, it seems quite a few of us got our State of Origin Game 2 prediction horribly wrong.
I’ll put my hand up – I thought Queensland had the edge and said as much, but after watching Sunday’s game you’d be hard pressed to see anything other than a back-to-back Blues series win. More on that later.
With Queensland’s resounding loss conveniently happening with ten rounds and one State of Origin left, it’s time to take stock of your predictions for this season.
What did you see happening? Are you on track? Are you picking and sticking, or are you chucking your prediction into the bin faster than Brad Fittler threw his Origin 1 team away? Here’s mine.
South will ‘win’ the coach swap with Brisbane
Status: on track
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
Judging on what we’ve seen in 2019, Souths would be much happier with their lot after the much-publicised ‘swap’ between Anthony Seibold and Wayne Bennett.
The standings speak for themselves – the Rabbitohs are second with a 10-4 record, Brisbane are 12th, 5-8 and doubtful to play finals.
Wayne Bennett went to Souths with the mandate to win two more games than 2018, to get a premiership. They’ve wobbled slightly from time to time but are still where they need to be.
This may be a call worth revisiting in the long term, because Seibold was brought in to take over and ‘rebuild’ the Broncos. He’s been given a lot of rope, with a lot of people excusing bad results as being due to a poor squad, recruiting, play styles, you name it.
I don’t believe that for a second – under Bennett, the Broncos finished 2018 one win away from the top of the table.
Wayne Bennett (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Penrith will struggle
Status: in the air
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
It’s not a thing against Penrith, I promise.
Last year I had the Panthers missing the finals and they ended one play away from a preliminary final against Melbourne. They’ve started 2019 appallingly, but they’re still only two premiership points and 54 points differential away from eighth spot.
They’ve had problems with their halves. James Maloney has been playing angrier than usual, Nathan Cleary has not imposed himself as Panthers hoped he might and now he’s out for a few weeks with an ankle injury sustained over in Perth.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard hasn’t yet reached his Origin standard and while he’s battled hard, Viliame Kikau has been dinged up too.
Coach Ivan Cleary might have been the Penrith board’s choice to take the reins, but he still has to convince a lot of fans that he’s got the stuff that will take the team to the pinnacle.
A reasonably helpful draw (only four more games against current top eight sides) might give the Panthers a chance to play finals, but they’ve got a hell of a lot of ground to make up.
Reagan Campbell-Gillard makes a break. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Queensland will win back the State of Origin shield
Status: on track-ish
Pick and stick or in the bin? Pick and stick
Expecting to win is one thing, playing to win is another. Like many others, I expected Queensland to muscle up in Game 2 on a disjointed and overwhelmed New South Wales. But it was patently obvious just three sets in that the Maroons were on the back foot and had little in reply. NSW went after them and when they had them, they didn’t let go.
There will likely be more of the same in Sydney on July 10, and Kevin Walters has a lot of thinking to do about how his team can rise again.
Kev, I’ll give you a tip – telling your players that they’re still not allowed to mention NSW ain’t the way to do it.
There’s much more to be opined and analysed ahead of the Origin decider, but right now I’d rather be Brad Fittler than Kevin Walters.
James Maloney (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Melbourne will come back to the pack
Status: thoroughly incorrect
Pick and stick or in the bin? In the bin
This prediction was put in the bin exactly 30 minutes into the Storm’s first match of the season, as they dismantled a much-vaunted Brisbane side.
From that dominant start they’ve gone on to win 11 of 13 and top the standings with a points differential of 188, 92 points ahead of the next best.
Fifteen Melbourne players suited up for their state or country during rep round last week.
Maybe it’s the beating they took in the grand final that coloured this prediction. I thought that with younger heads in key positions and Cameron Smith flying solo, things might be different.
The Storm had been losing quality players, too. Cooper Cronk in 2017, future Immortal Billy Slater and the consistently underrated Ryan Hoffman in 2018. Most other clubs would sink to the lower third of the ladder after this, but Melbourne aren’t like most clubs.
They’re the team you wish your team would be, led by Craig Bellamy, the man who turns dung into diamonds. As long as he’s there I’ll never doubt the Storm again.
Craig Bellamy. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
The Bulldogs will rise up the table
Status: thoroughly incorrect
Pick and stick or in the bin? In the bin
Canterbury-Bankstown showed plenty at the back end of 2018 to make me think they’d turned a corner under new coach Dean Pay.
After just three wins from their first 14 matches, the Bulldogs split the rest of their season 5-5 to finish 12th.
It looked like the team had adjusted to Pay’s defensive style, their attack became more consistent. I had the Doggies pegged for a dark horse run at eight spot in 2019.
And how is 2019 going? Well, this prediction also lasted exactly 30 minutes into Round 1 – Canterbury were 0-16 down against New Zealand on the way to a 40-6 drubbing.
They’re sitting dead last in 16th, again with three wins from 14 games. Their points differential is -162. Their defence is nine tries worse than anyone else’s. Half of their losses have been by double-figure margins, with four losses of 20 or more points and two by 30-plus points.
There’s strong rumour that Pay is going to get the hook next season in what would be a pretty harsh move. His first head coaching role has been in the shadow of a phenomenal salary squeeze and he’s been up against it from day one.
Other than all that, this prediction was solid.
What predictions have you nailed? Which ones have you failed? Be honest now!
RoryStorm
Guest
Every year we hear the same old line about The Storm will be coming back to the pack and they will be lucky to even make the finals. And don't you think Craig Bellamy & The Storm fans love hearing that from the Sydneycentric scribes. Personally I think it's more to do with the scribes in Sydney hoping that they will come back to the pack rather than believing they will.
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
My ladder was 1. Roosters, 2. Storm, 3. Rabbitohs, 4. Sharks, 5. Dragons, 6. Cowboys, 7. Panthers, 8. Knights, 9. Titans, 10. Broncos, 11. Tigers, 12. Raiders, 13. Warriors, 14. Bulldogs, 15. Sea Eagles, 16. Eels. In my defense, it's not round 25 yet.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Almost forgot. I updated my Dally M tip at the start of the season... "Damien Cook, Luke Keary and Kayln Ponga are my frontrunners [for the Dally M]" - Papi "I wouldn’t be surprised if Mitchell Pearce or Adam Reynolds takes it out" - matth https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/03/12/five-fearless-predictions-for-the-2019-nrl-season/ Dally M Leaderboard 15 Mitchell Pearce (Newcastle Knights) 14 Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs) 14 Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm) - on track
Insider
Roar Rookie
So Manly beat you choo Choo, baaaaa and guess what next week we do it again Outa my way I’m mad, here I come choo Choo Choo Choo
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Manly were widely considered to have a small group of great players and the rest weren't up to speed. It was also widely reported that their depth was very ordinary. I thought it was a pretty handy roster with decent depth and capable of doing pretty well as long as injuries didn't curse us again. I'm sticking with the decent roster bit but didn't think we'd be winning too many games without Turbo and DCE. As for the rest of the teams , I didn't know what would happen before the season started and I still don't know how it's going to pan out. Making the 4 with a healthy team is the goal for many teams but who they will be is not clear. I'm leaning towards a dark horse premier this year like the Raiders, Knights or Manly and if someone can apply the blow torch to the Storm in the finals I think they are more vulnerable to a thumping than it seems right now.
Insider
Roar Rookie
And in 2019 you couldn’t beat us, baaaaaaaaa Outa my way here I come choo Choo Choo chooo
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
I managed to dig up my pre-season tips from the "Rock solid predictions ahead of the 2019 NRL season: Part 2" story. https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/03/13/rock-solid-predictions-ahead-of-the-2019-nrl-season-part-2/ Tips: 1. As long as he stays injury free I think Josh Hodgson is a very strong chance of taking out the “Dally M”. - He didn't. Another injury plagued season again for Hodgson so I will play my "Get out of Jail Free" card which hinged on "as he stays injury free". 2. The Knights will finish in the top 8 but not in the top 5. - Currently, the Knights are 5th on the ladder on points differential but equal on competition points with the Sharks and the Seagulls with the Tigers and the Eels just 2 points behind (on track). 3. The Tigers (under Madge and the resurgent form and partnership of Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah) will have a strong year but will fall just short of the top 8. They should finish on top of the Warriors, Eels, Titans and Bulldogs in any case and possibly the Cowboys unless Michael Morgan finds his 2017 form. - the resurgent form and partnership of Benji Marshall and Robbie Farah. Spot on! Also I predicted that the Tigers would just miss out on the top 8 (they are currently 9th) - so on track! Also, the Warriors, Titans, Bulldogs and Cowboys are all out of the top 8 and competing at the wrong end of the table. - on track My top 5 were: 1. Rabbitohs 2. Dragons (with JDB otherwise 5th) 3. Roosters 4. Sharks 5. Storm Effectively without JDB that now becomes: 1. Rabbitohs 2. Roosters 3. Sharks 4. Storm 5. Dragons - So I have 3 of the top 4 but not in the right order. Wooden spoon: Warriors (closely followed by the Eels) - The Eels are currently clinging to 8th position but never fear, there is still half the competition remaining. ;-) Btw, I initially had the Dogs bracketed with those two. Should have gone with my gut. Sorry old mate, CPB. ;-)
Randy
Roar Rookie
I had Dragons in the top 4. Lots of creativity with Hunt, Norman and Widdop, strong forward pack. Man they have been awful. Isn't 2 of their wins against the Bulldogs?
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
And my tip was that putting the former auditor general for the NRL in charge of the Roosters salary cap would be worth at least an extra $2 mill off the cap for the chooks. I guess we were both right. ;-) That's like putting Wayne Bennett in charge of developing English talent and expecting the old fox not to treat the opportunity as an all you can eat buffet!
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
WHY do Dragons fans keep doing that? The writing has been on the wall for years now and it makes for disturbing reading. Mary belongs in a brothers Grimm fairytale not in the NRL. Like Obi-wan Kenobi, Jason Demetriou was the Dragons only hope and you let him slip through your fingers and fall into that hands of the Emporer, Darth Sidious! Now he is the Emporer's protégé and he will be pulling Bunnies out of hats at Redfern for years to come! [Cue evil laugh] Bahahahahaha
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
The Dogs might have Latrell Mitchell in the bag but that bag is in a Rabbitohs vault! If LM leaves the chooks he will come to Souths, 100%. We just have to get passed those annoying two letters first, "IF". Congrats on signing Turbo and Jake T. though mate. I used to have quite a fantasy team of my own when I played Supercoach. ;-) It wouldn't surprise me though since the Dogs have become the "Sea Beagles" in recent years with Hasler, Hopoate and Foran all landing in the "Dog house". ;-)
Scott Pryde
Expert
Nope, just overrated the coach...
Dogs Boddy
Roar Rookie
Papi I am happy to bin this one. At the start of the season Melbourne appeared clunky, really clunky and I thought that this time I was on track. The problem is the clunky storm are still 11/13. They aren't playing clunky any more either. If I keep saying it then one year it will come true. The problem is that with the way this team is running I may need to have it inscribed on my tombstone instead and just hope that one day my offspring can say "He was right".
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
haha...yep, South's are still a goer....Dragons...nah...Seibold...yep!
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
haha....there were no 'fluid inspired' decisions made PS!...that I recall...mmm.... I was under the impression that the Roosters were losing a bunch of players and couldn't possibly be 'as good' in 2019.....in the same way that I thought that the Dogs would (somehow) be magically fabulous!!! - damn you ignorance and 'blind faith'! :) (I've told you previously that I'm a poor student of Rugby League PS - I'm sure you believe me now!) Note : Put your money on the Dogs for 2020 mate - I believe we've got Mitchell, Turbo, Jurbo and more in the bag....hey trust me! :)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
No, too much respect for his Dragons, clearly. ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Based on that you should leave the tipping to the Sports writers Scott. ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Re your Melbourne Storm tip DB, how many half race champions have look like Melbourne Cup winners mid-race and then gone on to finish out of the running? At the start of the year who could have predicted that Greg Inglis wouldn't make it through a quarter of the season and that "Jimmy the Jet" would make a landing in Redfern? Fewer still would have tipped NSW to flog QLD by over 30 points with Latrell Mitchell intentionally omitted from the side! Don't rip up your ticket yet mate but I would have to say that at this stage the Storm are short odds favourites for one of the places in the 2019 GF.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Btw, at the start of the year I tipped Souths to finish 1st and the Dragons to finish 2nd! Half way through the season Souths are 2nd and the Dragons aren't! I had a bonus bet that Anthony Seibold would struggle with second year syndrome and "Daddy daycare" difficulties with the "Baby Broncos" and the orphan Boyd and he would bomb in 2019. At this point THAT tip looks like it will pay nicely! ;-)
AJ Mithen
Expert
That is speculative... I love it!