Australia have already wounded one of their main rivals for the World Cup in England. Tomorrow they have a chance to throw New Zealand’s World Cup campaign into disorder, too.
While the Kiwis are all but assured of making the semi-finals, if Australia defeat them on Saturday, they will have back-to-back losses as they head into their final group game against an England side that has to win at all costs.
Were New Zealand to lose that match against a desperate England team as well, their confidence would be in tatters leading into the semi-finals.
The Kiwis have a great record at World Cups – this would be the eighth time they have made the semis from 12 tournaments – yet they have lost six of their seven semis to date, and were thrashed by Australia the one time they made the final.
Cricket observers mostly agree New Zealand have exceeded expectations in World Cups given the limited resources that come with being such a small nation. It is extraordinary that a team from a country of five million people can compete with one from a nation of more than one billion, like India.
(Photo by Christopher Lee-IDI/IDI via Getty Images)
But too many New Zealand cricketers don’t actually believe they can win the big ODI matches or Test series away from home.
In the last 30 years they have won only one Test series on the road against the big four nations of South Africa, India, Australia and England. They have had some very good teams in that time but they have all too often faltered at the crucial moments.
One prominent example was the 2015-16 Test series in Australia. The Aussies were an absolute mess in the build-up, having just lost half of their team to retirement, with key players Michael Clarke, Ryan Harris, Brad Haddin, Chris Rogers and Shane Watson quitting at roughly the same time.
Meanwhile, veteran quick Mitch Johnson was also on the verge of retirement, having lost his spark and ruthless instincts one year earlier due to the death of Phil Hughes.
Australia were ripe for the picking – a team bulging with rookies – while New Zealand came in with a settled and experienced side that was on a run of seven consecutive Test series undefeated. Yet somehow the Kiwis went home with a 2-0 loss, then let Australia hammer them 2-0 in NZ soon after.
That New Zealand side had two golden chances, home and away, to beat Australia in a Test series for the first time in 25 years. Instead they were bullied by a weak and very inexperienced Australian side and hobbled away with an embarrassing 0-4 scoreline.
New Zealand, on paper, had the better, more seasoned and more settled side in those series. Their block was mental, surely. I’m not convinced they actually believed they could beat an Australian Test team, even one that had been decimated by retirements.
In the same way, I’m not sure New Zealand actually believe they can win a World Cup.
The difference between these two cricketing nations is that Australia believe they have a right to win, while New Zealand believe they have a right to compete.
For the Kiwis, making the semis is a great effort. They’ll be warmly appreciated at home for this accomplishment.
For Australia, nothing less than lifting the World Cup will be seen as a success.
The expectation to dominate that the Australians always carry has seen them err in their behaviour at times, as they’ve become too ruthless, too intent on winning at any price.
On the flip side, that same heavy expectation has also driven Australia, time and again, to win matches and series and tournaments they had no right to win. It’s happening once more.
This Australian side was a laughing stock of world cricket just over three months ago. Now they’re the bookies favourites to win the whole damn thing, all over again.
If New Zealand are to build up the the collective belief to drive them over that longstanding World Cup hurdle, they can’t afford to limp into the knock-out stages.
The Kiwis’ charge to snaring their first World Cup must start today. Their unexpected loss against Pakistan is not an issue yet.
But if they let one defeat become two on the trot, with England still to come, New Zealand risk losing all their momentum at the key moment.
cos
Guest
One word - Starc. No other bowler in this world cup has the same potential to decimate the tail and turn a game on its head. Let's hope he gets a few more wickets in his first spell, which has generally been his least fruitful.
cos
Guest
Because only Australia has even engaged in ball tampering, and because Australia, unlike other countries, doesn't sternly discipline its players when they engage in that type of behaviour.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Good point about Dhawan and Shankar who has replaced him hasn’t shown a lot. But the rest of the middle order? Dhoni and Jadhav have superior averages and run rates than the Australian middle order (apart from Maxwell’s run rate). Jadhav’s average of 43 and run rate of 100 is better than Finch, Warner, Smith, Khawaja, Stoinis and Carey. I’m not saying he is necessarily more valuable than any or all of those, but weak link? Pandya’s record is on a par with Maxwell’s. Long tail 8 and below, true. But that’s not a serious weakness.
Jacko
Guest
Ronan I dont see NZ as being given too many real shots at the Wc....When we Joint host NZ plays all their games in their own conditions right up until the final....Then goes to the MCG where its 20 mtrs bigger for a 4 or 6 and the pitch does very little to suit NZs skills setup.....how do they win when its really against them doing so? This Neutral venue in England where conditions probably suit them better than any other WC comp from the past 4 WCs
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Agreed
Gee
Roar Rookie
Ferguson is a great first change also, around Cummings in quality.
zozza
Guest
Well mate I can. This Australian team has holes aplenty. They are on a bit of a roll.....or so it appears. But anything can happen in cricket, and NZ are probably owed some umpiring decisions in their favour against Australia...remember Nigel Long in Adelaide. As a NZ cricket fan, I expect us to win EVERY game. If you don't, good for you - you have the attitude that Ronan speaks of in this article. Again, I expect us to win EVERY time. Any other attitude is girls blouse material.
zozza
Guest
Archer is nothing special. I fail to see the hype about him is anywhere near valid.
zozza
Guest
Kane and Virat are the key wickets at this World Cup. Kane is so good, he got 40 odd the other night and it is seen as a failure.
zozza
Guest
Munro is cr@p, but IS the kind of player that can crack a quick 50 in about 30 balls if he has a bit of luck -- but I don't think its a winning strategy to keep picking him when he keeps failing. But who knows. Maybe he is due.
zozza
Guest
Exactly. NZ have a stronger team than England. England are all BS. Worst bowling attack of a supposed "favourite".
sandpaper
Roar Rookie
lol both india and aussies will be out of the wc in the semis atleast indian wont cheat
Nick
Guest
I agree with Paul on this one. Test form and assumptions have very little to do with anything. I'm aussie and I do not believe this popular narrative resurfacing at the moment that Australia has WC winning DNA or anything of the sort. To say so is a little bit silly. We had a world beating team for 20 years and we won a good one at home. NZ have a long history of playing up against Australia, if anything, given we've already qualified, mentally NZ will be more up for this pool game than us.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Yes. But what do we do about India and the match fixing? They’ve developed it into a fine art since the mid 1990s. No wonder they won the WC in 2011.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I don't think your first "failure" isn't failure at all. It's just losing!
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Those are the tournament rules
Targa
Guest
NZ is likely to still be ahead of Pakistan on net run rate
Targa
Guest
Provided India beats England and Pakistan beats Bangladesh it looks as if the semis will be India-Pakistan and Australia-NZ. As a Kiwi I can't see us beating Australia in the pool and the semi. I'd rather lose the pool match and surprise Aus in the knock out.
sandpaper
Roar Rookie
there needs to be a thorough scan of aussies before the match there are some eerie things happening out there
Brasstax
Guest
I cannot believe that the Indians are not playing Dinesh Karthik as a batsman in the middle order. He is one of those players who can tonk the ball long and hard from ball one, is fiesty and vastly experienced and has a good batting record in England albeit in tests. Just for the purposes of winning this WC I would have DK coming in at 4 and Pant replacing Kedar Jadhav at 6 and with Pandya at 7 suddenly you have a dangerous middle order. I think Bhuvaneshwar coming back would strengthen the batting as he is more than a capable batsman who can score at 5 or 6 an over with a sound defence though not a smasher of the ball. Alternatively Jadeja can also be a very good number 8 if he replaces Kuldeep yadav or Chahal.