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Australia have already wounded one of their main rivals for the World Cup in England. Tomorrow they have a chance to throw New Zealand’s World Cup campaign into disorder, too.
While the Kiwis are all but assured of making the semi-finals, if Australia defeat them on Saturday, they will have back-to-back losses as they head into their final group game against an England side that has to win at all costs.
Were New Zealand to lose that match against a desperate England team as well, their confidence would be in tatters leading into the semi-finals.
The Kiwis have a great record at World Cups – this would be the eighth time they have made the semis from 12 tournaments – yet they have lost six of their seven semis to date, and were thrashed by Australia the one time they made the final.
Cricket observers mostly agree New Zealand have exceeded expectations in World Cups given the limited resources that come with being such a small nation. It is extraordinary that a team from a country of five million people can compete with one from a nation of more than one billion, like India.
(Photo by Christopher Lee-IDI/IDI via Getty Images)
But too many New Zealand cricketers don’t actually believe they can win the big ODI matches or Test series away from home.
In the last 30 years they have won only one Test series on the road against the big four nations of South Africa, India, Australia and England. They have had some very good teams in that time but they have all too often faltered at the crucial moments.
One prominent example was the 2015-16 Test series in Australia. The Aussies were an absolute mess in the build-up, having just lost half of their team to retirement, with key players Michael Clarke, Ryan Harris, Brad Haddin, Chris Rogers and Shane Watson quitting at roughly the same time.
Meanwhile, veteran quick Mitch Johnson was also on the verge of retirement, having lost his spark and ruthless instincts one year earlier due to the death of Phil Hughes.
Australia were ripe for the picking – a team bulging with rookies – while New Zealand came in with a settled and experienced side that was on a run of seven consecutive Test series undefeated. Yet somehow the Kiwis went home with a 2-0 loss, then let Australia hammer them 2-0 in NZ soon after.
That New Zealand side had two golden chances, home and away, to beat Australia in a Test series for the first time in 25 years. Instead they were bullied by a weak and very inexperienced Australian side and hobbled away with an embarrassing 0-4 scoreline.
New Zealand, on paper, had the better, more seasoned and more settled side in those series. Their block was mental, surely. I’m not convinced they actually believed they could beat an Australian Test team, even one that had been decimated by retirements.
In the same way, I’m not sure New Zealand actually believe they can win a World Cup.
The difference between these two cricketing nations is that Australia believe they have a right to win, while New Zealand believe they have a right to compete.
For the Kiwis, making the semis is a great effort. They’ll be warmly appreciated at home for this accomplishment.
For Australia, nothing less than lifting the World Cup will be seen as a success.
The expectation to dominate that the Australians always carry has seen them err in their behaviour at times, as they’ve become too ruthless, too intent on winning at any price.
On the flip side, that same heavy expectation has also driven Australia, time and again, to win matches and series and tournaments they had no right to win. It’s happening once more.
This Australian side was a laughing stock of world cricket just over three months ago. Now they’re the bookies favourites to win the whole damn thing, all over again.
If New Zealand are to build up the the collective belief to drive them over that longstanding World Cup hurdle, they can’t afford to limp into the knock-out stages.
The Kiwis’ charge to snaring their first World Cup must start today. Their unexpected loss against Pakistan is not an issue yet.
But if they let one defeat become two on the trot, with England still to come, New Zealand risk losing all their momentum at the key moment.