England entered the 2019 Cricket World Cup as the No.1 ranked one-day side and the favourite to win the trophy.
England had played a brand of forceful, aggressive cricket over the past two years that laid waste to all who dared face them. Even among the oft-pessimistic English fans, there was a belief that England could win it all.
The loss to Pakistan dented that belief. A further loss to Sri Lanka turned that belief into slight doubt.
Tuesday’s loss to Australia has transformed that slight doubt into a nation-wide gnashing of teeth. The English press, always willing to rummage up a bit of panic, has stated that the team is “teetering on the brink of calamity” and “heading for another World Cup shambles”.
In spite of these concerns, it is too early to call time on England’s campaign for the cup. There are a few things in England’s favour that lead me to believe they will comfortably qualify for the final four.
Rampaging Roy saves
Jason Roy’s untimely hamstring injury has greatly impacted England’s batting quality and approach in this cup.
England’s batting tactics are premised upon an aggressive attack at the start of the innings, which is then taken up by each of the batsmen to come.
Without a successful, belligerent platform at the start of the innings, each following English batsman is less able to commit to their desired style of play.
Since the start of 2017, Roy and Jonny Bairstow have opened the innings together 29 times and averaged an opening partnership of 62 runs at over seven runs per over.
In the three games England has played with James Vince opening the batting, the opening partnership has averaged 15 at a net rate of 2.55 runs per over. So not only is England losing wickets earlier, they are struggling to get runs on the board at the start of their innings.
England’s Jason Roy (David Davies/PA via AP)
The good news is that Roy is likely to return for their next match against India on Sunday. Having Roy replace the underwhelming Vince in England’s line-up could supercharge their batting for the key games against India and New Zealand.
A return to form by Buttler and Bairstow
Jos Buttler and Jonny Bairstow have been the beating heart of England’s recent strong batting. Buttler came into the tournament averaging 69 over the last two years, and Bairstow averaged 73.
In the World Cup so far, Buttler and Bairstow are averaging 37 and 35 respectively. Those are solid averages, but below the standards you would expect of players of that quality.
A look at their recent innings does not demonstrate any major technical flaw which opposition bowlers are exploiting.
To use the recent game against Australia as an example. Both Buttler and Bairstow got started and made their ways reasonably comfortably into the mid-twenties. But instead of consolidating those innings both were soon dismissed.
Bairstow struggled to control a pull stroke and holed out to Pat Cummins, while Butler played a well-timed flick that was brilliantly caught by Usman Khawaja.
In both cases, a promising innings was ended by a slightly loose stroke. Given their recent records, it is much more likely that those promising starts will turn into something far greater. If either Buttler or Bairstow re-establish their dominance.
Then England becomes a far harder team to beat.
They’re still a good team
Since January 2017, England has won approximately 75 per cent of their matches, while in England, they have won 81 per cent of their games.
In this World Cup, England has won a much lower percentage of their matches. England is largely the same team that produced those strong results.
Outside of Roy’s injury and Alex Hales’ suspension, the players that produced those results are still there. It is unlikely that they have gone through some catastrophic Space Jam-style event where their talents have been taken by aliens.
At some point, England will revert to their recent mean level of performance. The question is whether this can happen soon enough to prevent elimination.
dungerBob
Roar Rookie
I'm very late on this article but let me join Paul and others in welcoming you to TheRoar Cameron. It's great to see an Englishman's thoughts and well compiled articles like yours are always particularly welcome. .. You didn't specifically mention the pitches but I think they've had a major influence on the tourney so far. There have been a few 300+ scores but the majority seem to have been somewhere in the 200's and more often than not a relatively modest 270-280 has proven to be hard to chase down. This has made life difficult for the power hitters since they can't just swing freely and hit through the line, in the air, with impunity. Some might say this has been a bit of bad luck for England given how you play but I contend that it's a bit more than just bad luck. I think it's bad management. Early season pitches, ICC oversight and the possibility of some rain are things that you should have known about for literally years now but it does seem to have taken you by surprise. Maybe I'm overstating it but seems that you've structured your side to deal with dead flat tracks and have ignored the possibility of trickier decks. Would you say there's anything in that or have I missed the mark by miles?
La grandeur d'Athéna
Roar Rookie
Thanks sir :-)
Paul
Roar Guru
"Like a lot of negative human traits, arrogance is just a positive trait taken to an extreme degree. " This is an excellent point Cameron. I think back to the great Australian sides that dominated Test & ODI cricket. They too were arrogant for sure, but the difference was, they got away with it because won Cups. England has had every right to be arrogant IMO, because their feats over the past 3 years have been exceptional in this form of cricket. Now though, is obviously not the time for arrogance, but that's not to say England can't be confident. As you say, they still have a very good team and assuming they make the finals, are as good a chance as any of taking the Cup.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'd also suggest the opposition India have played have been a tad more experienced and harder to beat than some of the games England has played. Ireland & Scotland are not exactly in the top drawer of ODI nations.
Paul
Roar Guru
hi Ruchika, there's no need for any apology. You most certainly did not cross any lines or write anything that I would consider offensive. What you wrote was basically correct. I was merely suggesting the arrogance you were referring to, which was most definitely coming out of the UK, was not coming from the English players. The only exception was that one comment from Mark Wood, a fast bowler who bats 11. In all likelihood, he'd contribute exactly nothing to any England team's chase of this elusive number. I hope to see more contributions from you over the coming weeks. I thoroughly enjoy reading people's takes of cricket issues and it's always healthy to have some disagreements. It makes this wonderful game even more fun to discuss.
La grandeur d'Athéna
Roar Rookie
I beg your pardon Paul sir. I did not mean any disrespect. I have heard about scoring 500 before mark wood made that comment. And i also believe their retired players have been a little disrespecting to other teams in commentary. Few days ago when i was watching a game of England, i heard a commentator was saying no matter what other teams score England would chase it. It sounded little arrogant to me. My sincere apology if i have stepped over the line. My comment was not directed to country or people. It was purely from cricket perspective :-)
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
I've been really surprised how little hype there is around India given they have 2 of the top 3 batsmen in the world and 3 of the top 6/7 bowlers in the world.
IndianCricketFan
Guest
It's not often that an Indian team gets to fly relatively under the radar while we go about our way Ronan...I must admit I'm quite enjoying it and do not admire your efforts to tag us favorites (I kid). I'm happy England got the favorites tag pre-tournament. At things stand, I would say the Aussies are favorites - you are gathering momentum at just the right time.
Dron Feo
Guest
Sooo......they have been the best side in the world lol. Nice one Ronan, literally disproving your own statement with facts you provided.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Cameron I wrote this nearly 4 months ago about why India were my favourites for the World Cup and I still have them as the top dogs now: https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/03/04/india-not-england-should-be-world-cup-favourites/
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
That’s fair, probably slightly inelegant phrasing on my part. India are indeed a bloody good team. I’d be interested to hear your thoughts, but I still had England slightly ahead going into the tournament because they were playing at home and I thought that England had a slightly more well balanced team from 1 to 11. India have star power which is the envy of any team in the tournament (notably with Kohli and Bumrah), but I thought they had some weaker members of the team that could be exploited. You also raise an interesting point about how easily the British media can transition from unbridled optimism to stark pessimism. Strong opinions sell papers.
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
"They (England) have been the best ODI team over the past couple of years." They actually haven't though Cameron, that has been a myth peddled by the UK media, who over the past few years have painted England as easily the best ODI team in the world. The reality is that India have been just as good as England since the last World Cup. These are their ODI win-loss records in that time: England - 62 wins, 26 losses India - 61 wins, 27 losses So their records are dead even, as is the record between Eng and India in ODIs in those four years at 3-3.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
15 ODIs in 8 weeks is quite a workload.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
Part of the reason I haven't mentioned their bowling attack is that I don't actually think it has been the problem. Across the World Cup, England have ranked 3rd in both net bowling average and runs per over. Only New Zealand and India have better figures in each of those stats. Of the 60 bowlers at the World Cup who have played at least 3 games and bowled at least 15 overs, both Jofra Archer and Mark Wood are in the top 10 for both wickets taken and bowling average. All three of Archer, Wood and Ben Stokes are in the top 20 for bowling economy. I agree that England's spinners have been disappointing, but their fast bowling attack has been really strong. Lastly, England's strong performances in the lead-up to the Cup were largely driven by their batting. Their bowlers have performed in a manner which is largely consistent with their past performance (if not better in some cases), but their batsmen have performed worse. That's why I think their slightly substandard efforts so far have been driven by a dip in their batting. I agree with you in saying that an inflexible mindset may also drive some poor performance. I'd thought about saving a discussion on that for another article, but I was going to look at what they do against India before writing.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
In line with other comments, I can't see India playing in such a way that increases the chance they'll lose. In addition to the points made about Kohli's mindset, it's also really dangerous as a team to drop the mental intensity required to win tournaments. If India relax for a match, it may well introduce bad mental habits which could manifest itself in a knockout game.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
Agree completely about the net benefit to the tournament. Even if England had won their match against Sri Lanka (let alone the matches against Pakistan and Australia) it could have meant a high number of dead rubbers at the end of the group stage. I'm thrilled at some of the games to come. Especially can't wait for India and England on Sunday night.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
Like a lot of negative human traits, arrogance is just a positive trait taken to an extreme degree. Depending on your perspective, this arrogance could be perceived as confidence, which is a fairly necessary skill for elite sportsman. I think with the English team, the view on whether their actions are confident or arrogant can depend upon your personal views and perception of England. For me, I thought they were merely confident coming into the tournament and justifiably so. They have been the best ODI team over the past couple of years. Yes, Wood made a poor comment which put a bullseye on their back and also deligtimised the World Cup. But this does not mean they are arrogant as a team. However, I'll be fascinated to see how they respond in the next two games. If there is a seaming wicket and England make the same mistakes they made against Sri Lanka and Australia, that may be evidence of an arrogant mindset. After all, repeating a failed strategy is often a good indicator of arrogance.
Cliff Harris
Guest
5 practice games against Pakistan gave us a false sense of superiority. Whilst England played these practice matches with full intensity, Pakistan never went above 80%. Throughout the series against Pakistan I knew that it was a futile exercise; a) We got used to playing against a side that was not going 100% (Why show all your cards before a WC), b) The Pakistan team, whilst a quality outfit are no where near the class of India & Australia c) The Pakistan side was very one dimensional and did not give England an opportunity to test themselves against similar opposition they will face in the WC d) We played to many matches rather then preparing ourselves mentally and physically and I am sure England went into this WC tired... this also lead to the injury of Jason Roy and some tired performances throughout. This created a bubble of self confidence that whatever score we have to chase... we will just chase it. Then before the WC even begun we took the moral high ground and axed Alex Hales. Not for the first time has England bitten of it's nose to spite it's own face. Then the ultimate arrogance was winning the toss and electing to field. Never put Australia in to bat first if you get the choice. Yes the wicket was green and there was cloud cover... but did they forget they were using the white ball? I do not think England will progress to the semi's now... every other team would fancy their chances against us.
JayG
Roar Rookie
Exactly Paul and many people have been saying exactly this for a while now. I distinctly remember your comments highlighting the same issues long before England's present struggles too. They are a one-dimensional team who can bat oppositions out of the game on batting friendly tracks but cannot adapt to anything else. Australian and Indian team managements definitely seem to have preferred backing better bowling attacks and a more conservative batting approach rather than the gung ho approach England favoured and they probably know a thing or two about winning World Cups.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
India would never contemplate not trying to win, irrespective of opponent or tournament permutations. Not the India under Kholi.