Round 16 of the 2019 NRL season is upon us – the last of the Origin-affected bye rounds where there’s only four games to be played ahead of next Wednesday’s State of Origin decider.
New South Wales and Queensland players are having the weekend off, which leaves a very interesting set of team sheets for this St George Illawarra vs Melbourne match-up.
We’ll see a sprinkling of new and familiar faces, new club signings getting their first run in a different jersey and a few regulars who we know can be relied on.
The Storm are three games clear on top of the table and are racking up points for fun. They’ve got the best attack (359 points), matched by the stingiest defence (only 169 conceded, just 12 per game). Their 12-2 win loss record is without peer this season.
Their hosts St George Illawarra sit tenth with six wins from 14 games. Their season to date has been anything but what was expected from Dragons fans. They were one play away from a preliminary final in 2018 after finishing seventh, but they’ve regressed badly from the side that was in the top four for the majority of last year.
Life doesn’t get any easier against Melbourne, who in their last meeting put a lazy 52 points on the Dragons. It was another strange Origin period game back in Round 17 last year. The Dragons led 30-28 after an hour, then lost 52-30. The Storm hold the recent head-to-head record 7-3.
(AAP Image/Daniel Pockett)
Origin has had a massive impact on this game. For the Storm, Queensland coach Kevin Walters’ son Billy Walters will play five-eighth in the absence of Cameron Munster. He’ll partner with halfback Brodie Croft. Former New Zealand Warriors centre Solomone Kata will make his Storm debut in the centres and Sandor Earl returns on the wing.
For the Dragons, Jai Field and Darren Nicholls will take the reins in the halves. Nicholls is a 30-year-old halfback with a solitary first grade game to his name, Field a 21-year-old who has played five games this season. There’s a lot of responsibility on this couple.
Cameron Smith’s decision to hang up the maroon jersey has paid dividends for the Storm. He’s in great form with seven try assists and he gets on his bike out of dummy-half quickly. He’ll revel in the uncertainty he can create for a jumbled Dragons line-up.
There’s a lot of pressure on St George Illawarra rake Cam McInnes to match Smith’s effort, and he’ll need to to give his team a chance of the upset. McInnes is a quality player who’s on track to at least match his 2018 output, which had him in discussions for the New South Wales No.9 jersey before Damien Cook swept all before him.
Melbourne are an attacking threat from anywhere, with line breaks (58) and tackle breaks (492) that will make the most of the Dragons’ ineffective tackles (254, second worst in the NRL).
On the plus side, the Dragons don’t give away too many penalties (85, third least in the NRL) and their ball security is pretty good (125 handling errors, fourth best in the NRL).
If you want to beat the Storm, no matter how depleted they are because of State of Origin, ball control and discipline in the tackle is absolutely critical.
Dragons coach Paul McGregor knows what’s at stake and it’ll be interesting to see how his reshuffled forward pack and makeshift halves pairing go about their business. After this week the Dragons have Canberra, Penrith, Souths and Parramatta – all teams above them. If they can’t at least break even in that run, they’re gone.
Somewhat surprisingly, McGregor’s sides match up pretty well against the Storm and their master coach Craig Bellamy. Bellamy leads the head-to-head 5-3 and the teams have traded wins in their last five meetings.
Prediction
With a combined 11 players missing for Origin duty, the quality or entertainment factor we’ll get from this match-up is genuinely up in the air. We could get an absolutely error-riddled barn burner where defence is optional like we did in 2018, or we could get a too-scared-to-make-a-mistake cautious grind.
Both of those outcomes suit the Storm just fine, but there’s too much on the line for the Dragons if they want to keep their finals hopes alive.
It’s a speculative call, but I’m tipping the upset because of the unpredictability of the Origin period and because this is simply a must win game for McGregor’s men.
Dragons by 4.
Teams
Dragons
1. Matt Dufty, 2. Jonus Pearson, 3. Euan Aitken, 4. Timoteo Lafai, 5. Mikaele Ravalawa, 6. Jai Field, 7. Darren Nicholls, 8. Korbin Sims, 9. Cameron McInnes, 10. Jeremy Latimore, 11. Jacob Host, 12. Luciano Leilua, 13. Blake Lawrie
Bench/Reserves: 14. Josh Kerr, 15. Reece Robson, 16. Patrick Kaufusi, 17. Mitchell Allgood, 18. Jordan Pereira, 19. Jackson Ford, 20. Lachlan Timm, 21. Tristian Sailor
Storm
1. Jahrome Hughes, 2. Suliasi Vunivalu, 3. Justin Olam, 4. Solomone Kata, 5. Sandor Earl, 6. Billy Walters, 7. Brodie Croft, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Cameron Smith, 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona, 11. Joe Stimson, 12. Kenneath Bromwich, 13. Brandon Smith
Bench/Reserves: 14. Albert Vete, 15. Tino Faasuamaleaui, 16. Tui Kamikamica, 17. Ryan Papenhuyzen, 18. Marion Seve, 19. Tom Eisenhuth, 20. Max King, 21. Harry Grant
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Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Good luck tonight old mate. You are going to need a truck load of it to have half a chance IMO.
Pedro the Saint
Roar Rookie
I also remember we belted them later that year . . .
Pedro the Saint
Roar Rookie
i remember that sickening event which lead to text messages and taunts, they lasted about a fortnight
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
I live in Wollongong and it's been raining on and off all day so a wet track makes things a little easier for the home side. As a Dragons fan id like to see is get up but it will take a huge effort
Peter Piper
Guest
Not sure about Kevvie's kid. 25 is a bit old to be making your debut if your any good especially with his dads contacts. Still we will see.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Yep. It hardly seems fair and don't forget the huge hole JDB has left in the Dragons forward pack that still has not been adequately filled. Blake Lawrie is a solid player but nothing exceptional and is a long way short of JDB. In the end IMO Lawrie is a draft horse, not unlike Welch. The fact that the Storm has 6 Kiwi internationals in their side gets them off to a flying start during the Origin period. Add to that 2 Fijian rep players and a retired Australian captain in Smith with 56 tests and 42 Origin games and that advantage quickly becomes overwhelming during the Origin period. And I'm not even including the 7 tests for PNG for Justin Olam. Even so, Cameron Munster, Josh Addo-Carr, Dale Finucane, Felise Kaufusi and Will Chambers are a massive loss to a side already overflowing with talent, while Christian Welch " The Clydesdale", not so much.
Soda
Roar Rookie
Fair call, probably should have said reserve grade for Melbourne standards. They are a top team with good depth.
M
Guest
Melbourne have hardly named a reserve grade squad for this game. Lots of rep and experienced players in their team.
Peter Piper
Guest
Its depth. Basically all the kids want to be brought into first grade through the Storm system so Bellamy can pick and choose who he wants. They are willing to accept minimum contracts to get the experience and the coaching which then gives the Storm great depth. Just look at the queue for full back this year when Slater retired and every one of them played out of their skin. Papenheuzen ripped the form book up on the chances he got and now we have Billy Walters (though at 25 to be making his debut ?). I guess that success breeds success.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Reckon we might see a late change there Jarryd ? I can see Hughes being moved to 6, Papenhuyzen to 1, and Kevvie’s kid to the bench for a more gentle introduction to the NRL.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
IF there is rain then that "could" conceivably make the score closer. However, it could also lead to a flood of errors by the largely inexperienced Dragons side and a glut of possession to a Storm side at home and packed with at least 8 internationals to the Dragons 1. That's if you count the 7 games games for Fiji for Korbin Sims. If ever the Dragons were ever in need of a "Storm Warning" this would be that game. Good luck! And know that ALL Bunnies supporters are cheering for you... out of the goodness of our little hearts of course despite the material advantage to the Rabbitohs on the competition ladder in case of an upset. ;-)
Christopher Wright
Guest
Absolutely Jarryd. I guess the only thing we can look forward to is it is another year closer to when the Storm finally fall apart. It will happen. Father time happens to everyone and every team.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! Not sure Kata will add anything to the Storms poor right side defence. I see this as one of the Dragons main opportunities to attack the Storm with Jai Field, Lafai & Dufty on their left side at the regularly "wobbly " defenders in Croft, Kata & Vunivalu.
Christopher Wright
Guest
I have no issue with it because I can see how it happened but I still cannot fathom how the Dragons have been effected more by State of Origin sitting 12th on the ladder than the Storm who are runaway leaders of the competition. It gives us no chance. In fact I have been a season ticket holder with the Dragons since 1992 and I have to say that tonight's for the first time I give the Dragons no chance. I have even started consoling myself that if we lose but 15-20 points that would be a good effort.
Christopher Wright
Guest
For the Dragons to win I think the Storm need to have a night off. Against any other club I can go to the game thinking that maybe this will happen. The Storm never have a night off. In fact when they are playing a team where this might happen they seem to come out more intense than ever. My prediction for this game is the Dragons will hang tough through 60 minutes but the Storm may put 20 points on them in the final quarter of the game. Similar to last year but remember the Dragons had James Graham and Gareth Widdop in the line up that night.
Christopher Wright
Guest
Absolutely. Reckon 7,000 tonight would be a good crowd.
Albo
Roar Rookie
Yep ! It’s probably a coin toss with so many players missing . You have Cam Smith who has been marshalling teams of reserve graders for over a decade now, versus WIN stadium where the Dragons perform their best ( 7 of last 9 won there). Even in the wet with likely mistakes a plenty, I have to just give the nod to Cam Smith ( with some help from Branden Smith) to just get the Storm home.
Christopher Wright
Guest
Don't worry. Tariq Sims has been given a special mission to take care of Smith. Oh hang on a minute.....................................
Scott Pryde
Expert
No offence taken - we are gonna get clobbered.
Jack
Roar Rookie
Dragons: no halves, no forwards, no chance. Storm by plenty. Suprised Bellamy put Papenhoozy back on the bench, he's a gun.