We haven’t seen the best of New Zealand during the 2019 Cricket World Cup, yet they’ve managed to secure a semi-final birth and a golden opportunity to go one better after their World Cup final loss to Australia in 2015.
Securing the fourth spot, the Blackcaps have somewhat flown under the radar for the entire tournament with heavyweights India, hosts England and a resurgent Australia dominating the headlines and the ladder.
New Zealand were quick out of the gates, cruising past Sri Lanka by ten wickets but heavy losses to fellow semi-finalists Australia by 86 runs and England by 119 runs have pundits questioning whether they have a genuine shot at World Cup glory or if they’re just making up the numbers in the final four.
They were awarded one point against India because the match was abandoned due to poor weather. But they can consider themselves fortunate, scraping past Bangladesh by two wickets and the West Indies by just five runs in performances that were far from convincing.
Their two best players, captain Kane Williamson and left-arm quick Trent Boult, have both put in consistent performances throughout the tournament, carrying their inconsistent teammates.
On several occasions Williamson, batting at three, has had to stroll to the crease early in the innings, three times in the first over, due to the constant failings of their opening partnership, stifling their ability to get on the front foot to put pressure on the opposition bowlers and build a strong foundation.
While most have their players have each contributed at some point during the tournament, it hasn’t been often enough both individually and collectively.
If New Zealand are going to have any chance of securing their first World Cup win, Martin Guptill is the key and needs to deliver at the top of the order. He has an average of 42 in one-day internationals which includes 16 centuries, but the only innings of note he’s played in this tournament were the 73 not out against a hapless Sri Lanka in their first match.
Lockie Ferguson has been a fast, aggressive and proved to be a solid foil for Boult, Liam Neesham has shown good signs and we all know what Ross Taylor can do, it’s now time for this team, currently ranked fourth in ODIs, to piece it all together.
They’ve lost their last three games quite convincingly. Their fans will be hoping they’ve got those poor performances out of their system, learned from their mistakes and are due for a win. Although they have zero momentum going into their semi-final match, perhaps those bad losses have come at the perfect time.
At least we know they haven’t peaked yet. They’ve got all the talent from the one to 11, they just need the self-belief and confidence they can win.
The World Cup is no longer a long road for Williamson’s men, they’re now on the home stretch. History for New Zealand is not beyond the realm of possibility. If this Black Caps team plays to their full potential and puts on two clinical and complete performances that we all know they’re capable of, they’ll be World Cup champions.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Well said, practically happened exactly that way...except for the openers, who were poor...again...but luckily, more than matched by Indias so called guns.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
Cheers. While you would love to win this but if it is a even 100 over pitch - and toss is thus not relevant, Eng like Aus last time are as much of a favorite one can (when 2 good teams are playing).
nekatsiemanresu
Roar Rookie
Doop.
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
I actually agree with you... I know you know what you're talking about. I'm just throwing a bit of banter your way mate!
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
Dude, I am not an India fan or any other, I like to reason. I gave (similar to bookies) 1 in 3 chance to NZ. But unlike them I presented the readers the reasoning how they arrive at such odds. https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/07/06/which-way-is-the-world-cup-headed/ All the points that could go wrong for them, did, it was never a certain event. Remember the last world cup – NZ had a 1 in 3 chance and 1 in 2 chance of winning the finals and semis respectively. Just because something happened, makes it a certainty only in hindsight. Extending your reasoning, you might have thought NZ had no chance at MCG and a 100% chance of beating the eventually fluffing, might I use the c word SA? But those were the odds by the experts, who make hundreds of millions doing this. If you think 67%, place a bet on any site – the whole world is considerably wrong and you would be rewarded in a big way. I don’t buy your opinion my opinion, all equal blah blah… Or writing from my “gut” or whichever body parts does the reasoning for one. By the way probability and chance are pretty good life topics – if you like to learn – helpful in making key decisions in life, not just cricket! Few others who are commenting, I don’t think they ve the capacity or inclination to get it. PS – The odds change as per toss/pitch conditions, weather etc. So yes a 240 was a good score in a knockout, under those conditions. But Kohli in particular panicked and tried to disrupt Boult while all that was needed to bide time and get to 80/90 in 20 overs, see off the new ball. I would think they had a day to plan this chase – the top 3 are making a habit of choking under pressure, while not giving anybody a chance in relatively meaningless matches in bilaterals and league games.
La grandeur d'Athéna
Roar Rookie
Have fun :-/
Nick
Roar Guru
Indeed.
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
Hope you're feeling ok mate! New Zealand are now 67% chance of winning the world cup. I'm not sure how I came up with that figure, but you can bank on it.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
That's a statistical certainty.
Jacko
Guest
They did
Jacko
Guest
Well India are 0% now
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Final chapter has been written and book is on its way to the publisher.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
And doesn't NZ also beat India most of the time in World Cups? So that must elevate them to about 65% chance for the semi - but let's put it at 100% seeing they won! Perhaps now for the final under the above poster's maths, NZ are now an 18% chance to win the WC?
Paulo
Roar Rookie
Don’t worry, I’m sure Virat will go well... as you say, how could both fail?
Paulo
Roar Rookie
I think Ro will have a great innings with the bat...
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
Well this article aged a day longer than expected. India would be hot favourites though
Jacko
Guest
Gurlivleen I still dont get your maths sorry...NZ has a 50% chance of winning this match tonight.....Then has a 50% chance of winning the next match....So that seems to me that NZ has a 25% chance at winning the WC not a 10% chance as your first post suggested....Also didnt NZ beat India in a warm-up match?
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
The probability that I while writing this comment will be crushed to a pretty painful death by a meteorite is tiny but anything can happen! What in 1 in 3 chance of winning (on the basis of the present form of players) a match did you not get? - Probability definition of this statement is - if NZ and India were to play 3 semi finals - NZ is expected to win once, but nope they get to play only once - so yes they can win!
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
Fair points!
Zozza
Guest
Problem is, Boult will take care of him tonight and nip him out for next to nothing.