For the bottom eight teams the competition still feels very much alive – after all, last place is still only four wins outside the top eight and there are eight games left. So anything is possible, right?
Unfortunately for those on the wrong side of the ladder, recent history is very much stacked against them when it comes to making the finals. And when it comes to not just making the finals – but doing well – the stats are even worse.
In the last five years, at this stage in the competition only four teams who were outside the top eight made it into the finals – one in each year from 2014-17.
The lowest ranked team to climb back into the finals was the North Queensland Cowboys, who were 13th on the ladder at this stage in 2014. The Cowboys also astonishingly made it into fifth place at the end of the regular season, winning seven of their last nine games – the NRL had 26 rounds in 2014 compared to the current 25.
In the last five years none of the teams that managed to make it back into the top eight won more than one game in the finals.
In fact, since the NRL era began, only one team that was outside of the top eight at this stage went on to win the premiership – the Wests Tigers in 2005. The last time a team outside the top eight at this stage made a grand final was in 2011 with the New Zealand Warriors.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Unfortunately for Tigers and Warriors fans, recent history is much less kind to them. From this stage on The Warriors have dropped out of the top eight three times in the last five years – the most of any team. Surely their fans will be hoping it is time for a change of fortunes.
Changes in the NRL ladder after Round 17
2018 – Ladder set after 17 rounds.
2017 – Dragons drop out, Panthers come in. Panthers were four points outside of the eight – in ninth place – and won only one game in the finals.
2016 – Warriors drop out, Titans come in. Titans were two points outside of the eight – in tenth place – and didn’t win a single game in the finals.
2015 – Warriors drop out, Sharks come in. Sharks were two points outside of the eight – in tenth place – and won only one game in the finals.
2014 – Warriors drop out, Cowboys come in. Cowboys were four points outside of the eight – in 13th place – and won only one game in the finals.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
He doesn't need it, he has protection...
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The Eels are in the eight but points conceded is almost as bad as the teams right down the bottom of the ladder while the Pennies attack is similar to the teams at the wrong end of the ladder. Teams with figures like the Storm typically win the comp but it's a funny season and I don't think the laughs are over.
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
Penrith are like -70somthing too. Not good for them
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
Mary talking smack to save his job
Zavjalova
Roar Rookie
Na sharks and cows still have a chance. Not convinced about penriff though.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I’m not writing off too many teams just as yet. There are only two team in the Storm & Panthers that are showing any current consistent form at present. Maybe the Raiders, Eels & Manly at 3 & 1 are looking fairly positive. Many of the others in this congested table, are all over the place with their form ( Bunnies 1&3, Roosters & Knights 2 & 3, Sharks 1 & 4, Cows 1 & 3 , Broncos 1 & 3 , Tigers 2 &3, Warriors 2 & 2) . Happy to wait another month before I get bold with my predictions. A month can do anything to a league table under these conditions.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'm not sure how the final 8 can be set just yet. If the Panthers lose this weekend and the Sharks, Cowboys and Tigers win, Penrith moves from 8th to 11th, but all of these teams would be on equal points
Davico
Roar Pro
Agreed on the Tigers. Hopeful but can't see it happening. They let that Roosters game slip away and last weeks game was a must win for mine.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
You forgot the Dragons mate, Mary said so.
RandyM
Guest
I think the top 8 is set. I would say Cowboys and Sharks are the only sides that can sneak in from outside the 8. Maybe the Tigers but I'm not sure they have the cattle to keep up. I think realistically you have Knights, Eels, Panthers, Cowboys and Sharks all fighting for 3 places in the top 8. It's gonna be exciting!