The NRL run home: Who makes the eight?

I expect there will be a log jam for the final places in the bottom 8. Just who will contest those places is anyones guess. Either the Knights or the Panthers should fill 7th place. I don't expect both sides to run out of puff at the same time and the Sharks are still way too inconsistent for mine to jump into outright 7th or better in the run home. Although the Broncos are still a chance mathematically speaking, I think that inexperience and a shocking start to the season will be their ultimate undoing in 2019 and a final 8 finish will be a bridge too far in 2019. As for the rest, toss a coin. IF the Tigers can beat the Knights tonight (which I am not expecting) then that puts them within striking range of the top 8 with a doable run home against the Cowboys, Bulldogs, SEA EAGLES, KNIGHTS, Dragons, Sharks. Even with "potential" losses to Manly and the Knights (in the rematch) they would still finish on 26 points and be thereabouts. It's hard to write Madge off with his premiership winning experience but IMO the Tigers just don't have the cattle this year.

Could be it, however, I actually think Penrith will falter and you'll get Broncos or Sharks in, with Panthers v Knights in a last round battle for final spot in top 8.

They have just opened a can of worms for themselves as usual. There will be 20 or 30 similar hits this weekend. How will the officials respond ? It will be a lucky dip . The howls of consistency or lack of it, will be headlines again. Time for the smart halfbacks to take on the line a little further as wary defenders may hold off for fear of a shoulder hit ?

Shocking decision on Kikau...I really don’t know how they got to that one I like looking at how many steps the defender takes between the player passing and contact being made as an indicator of how late the tackle is. Kikau didn’t take a step between Nicholls passing and contact, I don’t know how that can be called late. In ones from earlier in the season, TPJ and Sims both took two steps before making contact - plenty of time to pull out of the tackle, but Kiks had no chance. As for it being called a shoulder charge, he wrapped both arms up and around Nicholls. Terrible, inexcusable decision from the judiciary.

Yep ! But at least the judiciary is looking after them !!!!

Panthers have a brutally tough draw...

The top 8's run home: Storm - 32 pts (6 points clear of 2nd): Titans (16), SEA EAGLES (5), Broncos (10), RABBITOHS (2), RAIDERS (4), Titans (16), SEA EAGLES (5), Cowboys (13) * even with 3 or 4 "potential" losses the Storm should finish 1st Rabbitohs - 26 pts (2 points ahead of 3rd): Dragons (14), Sharks (11), STORM (1), Bulldogs (15), Broncos (10), Warriors (9), ROOSTERS (3) * not a bad run home but they need all players on deck Roosters - 24 pts (4th tied, 2 pts above 5th): Bulldogs (15), Titans (16), RAIDERS (4), Warriors (9), Dragons (14), PANTHERS (7), RABBITOHS (2) * a run home only money can buy Raiders - 24 points (2 points above 5th): Tigers (12), PANTHERS (7), Warriors (9), ROOSTERS (3), SEA EAGLES (5), Sharks (11), Warriors (9) * not an easy run home but better than the Sea Eagles Sea Eagles - 22 points (2 points above 6th): STORM (1), KNIGHTS (8), Warriors (9), Tigers (12), RAIDERS (4), STORM (1), EELS (6) * EASILY the HARDEST run home Eels - 20 points (7th tied, 2 pts above 8th): Warriors (9), Dragons (14), KNIGHTS (8), Titans (16), Bulldogs (15), Broncos (10), SEA EAGLES (5) * very doable Panthers - 20 points (2 points above 8th): RAIDERS (4), Bulldogs (15), Sharks (11), Broncos (10), Cowboys (13), ROOSTERS (3), KNIGHTS (8) * 3 speed bumps in their next and last 2 games could be their undoing Knights - 18 points (1 point above 9th/10th): Tigers (12), SEA EAGLES (5), EELS (6), Cowboys (13), Tigers (12), Titans (16), PANTHERS (7) * even with 3 losses to top 8 sides the Knights should still scrape into the top 8 Unless one of the top 8 teams hits a wall and sinks like a stone I think the top 8 is already set. The top 4 race is still open and to have a realistic chance of winning a premiership a top 4 finish is a MUST!

Yep. My guess this far out, is that the 8 is probably settled already. The one query is my mob the Panthers and whether they can keep the roll going. They do have a tough month to finish the season with 3 away matches. I think the Eels & Knights have pretty good draws to survive and Manly will have enough points also. The top 4 looks reasonably settled. Just the order needs finalising. The one query for mine is Souths who have a pretty tough draw, and haven't been playing that well, and they are still missing the Burgi. If they maintain their spot in the 4 , they can thank Cook and Murray for getting them home in tight ones the last two matches against Manly & the Cowboys. But you never know , a few key player injuries in the coming weeks can change plenty.

Some great games coming up and some teams in the bottom 4 are going to cause some grief for team with their sights set on the 8, it's a certainty.

Final four is pretty cut and dried imo but the finishing order is crucial. In the last week Souths play the Roosters And Storm play someone who doesn’t matter, Storm will rest any players carrying nagging injuries and be fresh for final one. Roosters and Souths should also rest players IF their finish spot is Guaranteed two or three. Raiders should do it also if they are certain to finish fourth. Winning week one is crucial and I don’t see a way back from losing in week one.

South Sydney vs Sydney. Who are Sydney? Oh you mean Eastern Suburbs.

Parra are the biggest furfy. They have 5 more wins now than they had at the same time last year. If they were still playing out of ANZ, would they have 5 more wins? Maybe two more... but they way they play away from home, suggests they haven't improved that much.

Top 4 done. Will be very interesting when Roosters play Rabbits last round then again in the semis the next week.... Hmmmm. The last 4 of the 8 - Manly have hard run home but should be safe, Parra have an easy run home and should make it. Knights, Panthers, Broncos & Sharks to take the last 2 spots.