Joe Root is going to struggle, his England teammate Ben Stokes will dominate, and rival skipper Tim Paine will bounce back to form.
These are three of my predictions for the Ashes, which kicks off tomorrow.
Ben Stokes will be England’s best player
The drunken brawl scandal of September 2017 threatened to derail Stokes’ impressive career. He missed five months of international cricket and, after being in career-best form prior to that incident, returned a shadow of his former self.
In 13 Tests since his comeback, Stokes has averaged just 29 with the bat, with a highest score of 79.
Yet in that same period, Stokes has been sensational with the ball, taking 32 wickets at 25 – including several pivotal spells.
Last English summer, with India chasing just 194 to win in the first Test, Stokes swung the match with 4-40, including the massive wicket of Virat Kohli.
Later that year in Sri Lanka, Stokes took 4-55 in a narrow win in the third Test.
Like Andrew Flintoff before him, Stokes has a habit of taking wickets in clumps, of shaping matches in a single spell.
First and foremost, of course, he needs to make runs, likely from number five or six. Based on his efforts in the World Cup – I’ve never seen him bat better in that format – Stokes also looks set for a big series with the blade. His ability to soak up pressure while batting in that tournament was extraordinary.
Ben Stokes (Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)
Despite having made his name as a hitter in ODIs, Stokes was calm in temperament and compact in technique throughout the World Cup. Granted, it’s a different format, but he just looked in the zone.
If Stokes carries that form into this Ashes, it is hard not to see him causing headaches for Australia in the middle order.
Combined with his incisive swing bowling, Stokes is set to be England’s MVP.
Tim Paine will bounce back
In late 2017, Tim Paine went from a moderately busy state cricketer contemplating retirement to traipsing all over the world as the ODI and Test captain of an Australian side decimated by the ball-tampering scandal.
After years in cruise mode, he suddenly had to hit top gear.
Initially he handled this stress well. Across nine Tests against England and South Africa, he kept neatly and excelled with the bat, averaging 45. But the cricket just kept on coming, with a limited-overs tour of England, followed by a tour of the UAE and then a packed home summer with six Tests against India and Sri Lanka.
By the end of that home season, Paine looked knackered. While his glovework remained fine, his batting returns dwindled.
Since then, however, Paine has had six months to recuperate, both physically and mentally. The Tasmanian knows that this series is likely to be the biggest moment of his career and Paine has shown he loves a challenge.
A fresh Paine with a point to prove is a Paine I’d back to flourish.
Tim Paine (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Joe Root will have an underwhelming series
While undoubtedly one of the world’s premier Test batsmen, English captain Joe Root has a chequered Ashes record.
He was excellent in 2015, arguably the key difference between the two teams. In the 2013 series, he scored 53 per cent of his runs in just one innings, albeit a match-winning knock, and averaged 20 across his other nine innings.
Next up, in 2013-14, he floundered against Mitchell Johnson and co. averaging 27. Then in 2017-18 he was flattered by an average of 47.
Just like Steve Smith and David Warner in 2015, who had nice-looking stats but didn’t make runs when it mattered most, Root was AWOL at the key moments in the last Ashes.
That series was decided in the first innings of the first three Tests, when Root needed to stand up. Instead he failed all three times, making 15, 9 and 20.
His five 50s in that series all came either in dead rubbers, or in second innings once Australia had already run away with the result.
Captaincy has weighed heavily on Root. Without the Test captaincy he averaged 53 and as skipper that number has fallen to 42. He is yet to prove he can produce his best as a batsman while leading his country, unlike fellow stars Steve Smith, Kane Williamson and Virat Kohli, who average 70, 64 and 63 as captain, respectively.
The other major hurdle facing Root in this series is his predicted move to first drop. With England boasting an extremely vulnerable opening combination, Root will regularly have to face the new ball against Australia’s elite and varied pace attack. On often-helpful English pitches, that is a serious task.
I’m not predicting Root will have a shocking Ashes – he is, after all, a fine Test cricketer – I just don’t expect him to pile up runs.
He will end up averaging in the mid-30s.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
In even more fairness Jeffrey, it's neither a difficult nor time-consuming task to have a quick squizz at a cricket site to get the NAME OF THE FASTEST BOWLER OF ALL TIMES NAME RIGHT.... Kidz today. *snort*. Meanwhile in England... Having failed with one national colour, Oztralia is hoping for a successful rub of the other one.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Could there have been a bigger failure as leader than what Smith did to Bancroft? Watching the post-day press conference with Smith and Bancroft it's appalling to see how Smith firstly made Bancroft explain what had happened, even though the question was directed at Smith and as captain he should have done all the explaining anyway, and secondly to force Bancroft to run with the "sticky tape and granules" lie, a cover-up story clearly concocted by the (c) , (vc) and likely the coach, with Bancroft in attendance, in the panic period between being caught on the field and the post-day media conference. I hope Bancroft does become captain one day; he'll know better than anyone how important it is to look out for his players and especially the junior members.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
In fairness, it's hard enough trying to remember how to spell Kahwarja and Labushancgne, in addition to remembering former players names.
Paul
Roar Guru
I agree with your assessment fo Carey, Jeff, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's in consideration soon after playing, say 10 Tests. He's already doing all the right things in ODIs and presents well, so if others like Head, Bancroft, etc don't perform well enough to become a certainty in the Test side (and therefore candidates for captaincy), Carey may well be offered the job fairly quickly. In fairness though, a lot of things have to go his way if he is going to get the head job.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
We have a seven Test summer home/away almost straight after the Ashes. Then nothing until November the following Australian summer. I can't see Paine still keeping by that following summer at 36yo. So for mine he has this Ashes and then this coming summer at most. A poor Ashes with the bat may see him pushed out before this summer but it would be a close call. One of the State keepers would need to knocking down the door in the first four Shield rounds before the Pakistan Test for that to happen I would think.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Carey will only come in to the Test side (if he gets in) once Paine retires/is dropped. No way he'll become captain in his Test debut. So it will be someone already in the side and with a couple of years behind them.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
I wouldn't be surprised if Bancroft and Head are the future leadership team. Not sure which would be captain. A lot will come down to performances from those two this series I suspect.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
I don't know about TP lasting another "couple of seasons", it's a distinct possibility that if Oz get an Ashes thumping and TP fails with the bat he could have played his last Test. (Shouldn't any player who fails in a full Ashes series be dropped?) And in today's Least Surprising News... Former NSW captain G Lawson has blasted the selectors for dropping NSW fast bowler M Starc from the Test team. Really Geoff, you're getting to be the new Neil 'Dial a Quote' Harvey. Incidentally, while the dropping of Starc may be for the common good, I can name someone who won't be happy with it. No, not Geoff Lawson, the GoaT. Without Starc's size 14's roughing up outside the RHs off stick he's likely to be less of a threat.
matth
Roar Guru
It was a genuine question regarding leadership if Paine isn’t there. I suspect Paine will finish up at the end of the home summer regardless. If Paine wasn’t there for Edgebaston don’t see a lot of options. Either not in the team, just coming back in, still establishing themselves or banned. You are left with Cummins, Lyon or Khawaja and none are great options for mine.
Paul
Roar Guru
He has to be in the mix, assuming a) he gets a run as Test keeper, which is likely at present and b) makes a really fist of it, especially with the bat. Carey currently has a reputation for not being high standard behind the stumps, so he needs to get rid of that perception by making as few mistakes as possible over the next couple of seasons, prior to Paine's retirement.
Paul
Roar Guru
Both appear to have what it takes to lead sides Jeff, the question is whether they can make enough runs at first class level to be constantly credible candidates (say that fast 5 times!!) at Test level. It's probably the case that which ever player has a break out season first will take the reins.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
53. Any other questions? Aus v Ind @ Adelaide: 104.4 Starc to I Sharma, 4 byes, short and sprayed way down leg, Paine has no chance, four more byes! Paine has been stitched up by Starc again. 98.4 Starc to Ashwin, 4 byes, 141kph, cracking bouncer but it takes off, Paine launches up with the right hand, gets a touch but tips it over the bar for four more byes! 82.3 Starc to Pujara, 4 byes, another one swinging way down leg, Paine dives and gets a touch but can’t knock it down enough and away it goes to the rope. 80.6 Starc to Pujara, 4 byes, sprayed way down leg and kept swinging away from Paine. The keeper had no chance. Very harsh to call that four byes. That was a shocker from Starc. Speaking of Starc… I recall a short while ago that when I opined he was over-rated and in poor form there was much pushback from various “experts” in here. Ho hum. And an aside: There can’t be many instances of where a team has dropped players who scored big hundred and taken a match 10 fer for the next Test.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Alex Carey a possibility?
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Arrrrggghhhhh. It's "Thomson" FFS.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Yep! SG Law. Came out to bat in his debut Test innings with Aus a precarious 4/496, a mere 240 ahead of SLs 1st innings, and compiled a chanceless 54* steering Oz to a safer 5/617. SL failed to make Aus bat again and SG Law never got picked again.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Pardon??? Bad Hands Brad "won the Ashes in 13/14"? Is this the cricket version of the 'Yesterday' film and MJ has been removed from existence has he?
FunBus
Roar Rookie
No. It's simply that he's still got the effects of a side strain and it's a long series. He'll be in at Lords.
deano
Roar Rookie
glad that sherlock has logged in.
deano
Roar Rookie
well, stokes will need to be mvp in the first test, england have overlooked archer and gone in with anderson, broad, woakes and stokes. i reckon they needed the firepower of archer.
Peter Warrington
Guest
I wasn't fit. I mean, I was mentally wrung out, I was physically wrung out, and I was fed up with the whole system, things that seemed to be just closing in on us, and I suppose in my own case I felt they were closing in on me, and it was a cry for help … I didn't recognise just how far down I was … I was disappointed that there was nobody else either within the playing group or within the administration who seemed to understand. Greg Chappell as quoted in the Lemon book nothing so farcical as history repeating itself