Five talking points from AFL Round 20

Things are getting tight in every section of the ladder as the clock ticks down with just three weeks left in the AFL’s home-and-away season. Here’s my talking points from Round 20.

Will Geelong make an impact in finals?
It’s the question that simply has to be asked after the Cats went limp in the final term against Fremantle. Is this team – regardless of where they finish on the ladder – going to make a meaningful contribution in September?

The year started so remarkably brightly for the Cats. They lost just one of their first twelve games, and that loss came by less than a goal against a strong GWS side.

It has collapsed in a heap after the bye, however. Starting with a nine-point loss on the road to Port Adelaide, the Cats have not been able to register consecutive victories since, and taken just three wins from seven games.

With a soft draw they were poised to waltz their way to the minor premiership, and I’ll admit I thought a season where they lose as many as one or two games was a realistic possibility. It has become anything but.

Why the drop-off? Broadly speaking, I’d say it’s because their forward line, working like a well-oiled machine before the bye, has been anything but in the time since.

Before the bye their lowest score was 75 points from 11 goals against GWS, but in the seven weeks since they’ve had four scores of 61 and under while kicking less than ten goals. You simply won’t win many footy games like that.

However I can’t also help but wonder if the club, by making the location of its hypothetical home finals matches such a big media issue, has counted their kittens before they hatched.

They play North Melbourne, Brisbane and Carlton in the last three rounds and in this form are no guarantee to win any of them. Amazingly, a top-two spot is now at least somewhat in doubt.

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images )

Pizza and beer solves problems for under-fire coaches
Although three AFL senior coaches have already moved on from their roles in 2019, there has all the same been an abundance of scrutiny lately regarding a trio more in Don Pyke, Ken Hinkley and Ross Lyon.

All three managed to get wins on the board this week, and all of them in at least reasonably impressive circumstances, earning at the very least a stay of execution, if not absolution.

Pyke went the route of inviting every player on the list to his house for a night of pizza and beers after Crows’ bitter loss to Carlton last week.

A 22-point win over St Kilda probably doesn’t read as a season-defining win, but considering the Saints’ good momentum over the last two weeks – and Adelaide’s shambolic lack of it – it’s no small achievement either.

Port and Freo’s respective victories were inarguably more impressive though. The Dockers welcomed the Cats to Western Australia and gave Tim Kelly a three-hour-long commercial on the colour purple.

If indeed there are ‘agendas’ at the Dockers to move Ross Lyon on, he now has some compelling evidence with which to argue his case. Given the players unavailable, the win was nothing short of Herculean.

Would you rank it more or less impressive that Port Adelaide’s domination of the Dons earlier in the day? The Power were on the road, but Freo beat the team on top of the ladder – tough to split, I suspect the Dockers get the edge.

For mine, the most laudable aspect of Port Adelaide’s win was the huge impact made by young guns Connor Rozee and Xavier Duursma. As first-year players you’d forgive them for fading out a bit by now, but they keep plugging away.

All three of these sides now has a serious chance at finals, but there’s no way they all make it. That being the case, it might not yet be correct to say that in the space of one Saturday, all three coaches secured their jobs for 2020 – but they could hardly have done much better.

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Shaw thing: Rhyce celebrates new contract with gutsy win
During the week North Melbourne announced that caretaker coach Rhyce Shaw could officially drop the first word of that title from his job description, promoting him to the permanent role with a contract until at least the end of 2020.

As news emerged that Shaw was the only candidate for the position that the Kangaroos had gone through the process of interviewing, many in the media questioned whether the Roos had rushed into the decision, especially on the back of three consecutive losses.

However, simply looking at the Ws and the Ls is no way to analyse footy. While North’s capitulation against West Coast was unimpressive, their last-minute heartbreaks battling Brisbane and the Bombers were about as much as you can ask from a man who has had less than two months to mould his playing group.

On Friday night North Melbourne went up against a Hawthorn outfit that, on paper, they had no reason not to beat. And in a sign of Shaw’s prowess, they did exactly that – letting in four goals in the first quarter, but only five more for the game.

Those North fans who not-so-fondly remember many heart-in-mouth moments late in matches during Brad Scott’s tenure – most of which, it feels like from memory, ended in devastation – would have been buoyed by the side’s ability to see out a volatile last quarter, kicking two late goals to take the game out of Hawthorn’s reach.

I will admit that my first instinct during the process has been to argue that, regardless of the great impression Shaw has made, the club should instead go through a full multi-candidate process to determine the best fit for the job.

But on a practical level, it’s not surprising this didn’t eventuate. Once it became apparent Shaw was the clear frontrunner there was little impetus for others to seek out the role – Brett Kirk reportedly turning down an opportunity to interview for it, and may not have been the only one.

Instead, having the club’s next senior coach already given the keys with three weeks to go allows for a head start to be made on shaping the list for 2020. After celebrating 150 years of Shinboner history on the weekend, it looks like an exciting new era ahead at Arden Street.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Essendon runs out of ‘get out of jail free’ cards
The Bombers entered their Saturday match with Port Adelaide on a five-game winning streak, with the notable quirk that all five victories had seen them come from behind to take the four points.

Even as they slid behind right from the start of the match and progressively moreso as time went on, the dominant theme of the commentary was questioning wherefrom would come the spark this week to get them back in the match.

The answer? Quite simply, it didn’t. Port kicked eleven goals to just four from Essendon in the second half and really never seemed seriously challenged, ultimately delivering a 59-point demolition that will sting just as much as it wounds.

The big question then remains: did Essendon’s five wins really tell us how good this team is? Or was it just a purple patch, a series of unlikely escapes that just happened to fall into a neat little row?

Their 11 wins at present is still enough to have them in seventh on the ladder, and the play the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Collingwood in the final three rounds.

Those are all matches they could win. Conversely, they’re also matches I have no trouble picturing them losing. And even 12 wins is no guarantee of a finals spot these days – they may need two of three to be absolutely certain.

(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

Sydney of 2019 are the Bulldogs of 2018
At the end of last season I wrote that, despite finish low on the ladder, the Western Bulldogs had been arguably the biggest overperformers of season 2018, based on what you could reasonably expect from their age/experience profile.

I feel that’s been vindicated somewhat by the Dogs’ progress in 2019. They may or may not play finals – trending towards may not after being devoured alive at the Gabba – but undoubtedly, they’ve taken steps forward.

They’re up there with the most exciting playing lists in the competition for mine and regardless of what happens for them in the next three weeks, I’ve no doubt we’ll see plenty of them at the pointy end over the next five to ten years.

A similar spruiking, I think, could be sent the way of the Sydney Swans in 2019.

No one would look at their record this year and say that it’s impressive or successful – but when you consider what a remarkably young side they have fielded most weeks, it’s arguably both.

Six wins is a solid enough result given the 22 they’ve been putting on the park but more impressive than that is their 94.1 percentage, comfortably the best among teams in the bottom five.

Five of this year’s thirteen losses, including falling two points short against the Giants this week, have been by less than two goals – and often against quality teams.

In 2019, they’re going to miss their first finals series in what feels like forever. But I wouldn’t expect them to spend many years booking holidays in September.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows (10-9) – 29 touches from Bryce Gibbs, three goals from Eddie Betts. This team selection caper may not be as difficult as Don Pyke has made it look at times this year.

Brisbane Lions (14-5) – I know I was saying just the other week that we should stop being so startled by how good this team is, but… right now they have the equal-most wins of any team in the comp. Remarkable.

Carlton Blues (6-13) – There’s not much shame in the reigning wooden spooners losing to the reigning premiers, and a fairly competitive four-goal loss shouldn’t do too much to stifle the Teague-mentum.

Collingwood Magpies (12-7) – Alas, there go seventeen other clubs’ dreams of seeing this side somehow drop one against Gold Coast. Dominant after the first five minutes. Some game from Adam Treloar, great form Will Hoskin-Elliott.

Essendon Bombers (11-8) – On a fairly disappointing day, give a hand to Will Snelling, with 21 disposals and two goals – against his old side, no less. The mid-season draft is here to stay, no doubt about it.

Fremantle Dockers (9-10) – What a beautiful thing it is to see Aaron Sandilands get to be part of a win like this in the twilight of his career. Fremantle could almost offer him another deal! That said…

Geelong Cats (14-5) – It’s kind of telling as to just how poor Geelong’s ruck stocks are that he was som dominant with his tap work. They are targetting Jack Steven, but they should be going for Todd Goldstein.

Gold Coast Suns (3-16) – Ben King another three goals, Jack Lukosius seeing plenty of it with 21 disposals, 18 of them kicks, nine marks. Not sure I like him playing in defense, but it’s a good place to get your hands on the ball at Gold Coast.

GWS Giants (12-7) – Two point win feels below par if you look at the ladder but when you consider no Stephen Coniglio, no Josh Kelly, no Jeremy Cameron, no Callan Ward – it’ll do. Toby Greene has been immense these last few weeks.

Hawthorn Hawks (8-11) – I’ll admit I’ve taken longer than some to cotton on to him, but Mitch Lewis is starting to look a really impressive player. Significant boon for the Hawks if he goes on with it.

Melbourne Demons (5-14) – Waiting on the edge of their seat to find out if Gold Coast will get a priority pick at the start of the draft this year. Sadly, that’s about all they currently have to look forward to.

North Melbourne Kangaroos (8-11) – Was never going to be the biggest story of the week but Sam Wright wrapped up his career with a thrilling VFL win over Box Hill this week. We’ll always have the Brendon Goddard intercept mark.

Port Adelaide Power (9-10) – Decision to drop Lycett came from left field, but Peter Ladhams was impressive in his place. You can see why they want to keep him. Something’s not right with Charlie Dixon.

Richmond Tigers (13-6) – As if the Tigers didn’t have enough positive momentum already, mid-season draft sensation Marlion Pickett played his first match in the VFL this week and impress. Could he be their 2019 answer to Jack Graham?

St Kilda Saints (8-11) – You could see on Saturday why they would so badly love a player like Brad Hill, and also why Fremantle are so desperate to keep him. Reckon the Brad Crouch approach is a good move to, albeit unlikely to come to fruition.

Sydney Swans (6-13) – Goes under the radar a fair bit but reckon it’s quietly been something of a breakout season for Jordan Dawson. 20 touches and a goal this week another very solid effort from him.

West Coast Eagles (14-5) – Adelaide, Richmond, Hawthorn left in the run home while searching for a top-two spot. And history says, they don’t lose finals when they play them at home.

Western Bulldogs (9-10) – Cost themselves a real chance at it through poor kicking early, but managed to avoid the trainwreck that seemed to be on the cards halfway through the third.