This could be construed as jumping the gun nine weeks out, but we can put a line through the claims of 13 NRL clubs for the 2019 premiership.
Souths’ performance against the Sharks showed they are unlikely to still be alive on the first weekend of October.
The Burgess boys are self-destructing. Sam, who on his day is capable of being the best forward in the competition, seems more interested in personal battles.
Melbourne and the Roosters were up against poorly performed opposition last start, with Brisbane coach Anthony Seibold conceding that it was almost inevitable that the Broncos would be lapped by the Storm because it has been happening for the last 11 years.
The Titans are not an NRL level team at present and they would struggle to win the second-tier competitions in either Queensland or New South Wales.
That said, last year’s grand finalists are on track to repeat the same program on October 6. Both teams have that look at the moment that separates them from most of the field.
A genuine chance of upsetting that apple cart and providing a rugby league fairy tale are Ricky Stuart’s Raiders.
It has been 25 years since Canberra last won a grand final and the public would embrace the story of a team built on a core of Englishmen and a bucketload of starch taking out the title.
In the popularity stakes, it would be a winner. Let’s face it, Melbourne and the Roosters have been there before on more than one occasion in the past decade and neither looks attractive when it comes to second teams or soft spots.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
I have a love/hate relationship with the Raiders. With a black and gold (now black, gold and white) heart, the Green Machine ruined my dreams in 1989 in what many describe as one of the great grand finals. I can’t see it myself. All I remember was sadness and disappointment.
After moving to the nation’s capital in 2004, the locals have continued to twist the knife on me. It’s a topic that I consciously avoid.
The truth is that I have seen more Canberra matches than any other team. If I wanted to watch rugby league live, they were the local attraction and I owned a Raiders season ticket for a number of years.
The way the team has developed in recent times is impressive and while I don’t do bandwagons or second teams, the soft spot has emerged.
Gone are the days of Canberra blowing halftime leads, brain snaps and ill discipline or slamming referees in post-match press conferences.
There has been a remarkable transition. The Raiders are displaying a tougher mental approach and a willingness to play for each other and give that extra effort in defence. When the Wests Tigers won the premiership in 2005, they spoke of having a unique spirit and a feeling of playing for each other. Canberra have the same smell in 2019.
Josh Hodgson was superb in his side’s 46-12 demolition of the Warriors. Fox Sports commentator and former Origin and Australian hooker Danny Buderus described it as his best game in a Raiders jersey, while Stuart said in the press conference that he wouldn’t swap his hooker for anyone.
Hodgson is the puppet master. He can be relied on for a smart scoot from dummy half, a line break assist with a deft pass and he loves a one-on-one strip.
(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)
Aidan Sezer and Jack Wighton are solid in the halves without overplaying their hands, while the rise of Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad from the Warriors reserve grade side to star fullback is one of the season’s best yarns.
The Raiders have Origin winger Nick Cotric, Englishman Ryan Sutton and Joey Leilua returning to the side in the next couple of weeks. It will only add to their potency, although Stuart will be hoping that Leilua embraces the new approach this season and he doesn’t display any brain snaps or undisciplined play that has sometimes marred past performances.
Leilua provides try-scoring potential with his ability to bust the line or get an offload away to a flying Jordan Rapana on the wing.
There are three teams capable of holding the Provan-Summons Trophy aloft in October. If one of those teams is the boys from Bruce, it will make a welcome change and the best story since Cronulla took out their maiden premiership in 2016.
Canberra face their biggest tests of the season in the next two weeks when they take on the Roosters at home and the Storm away. We will have the definitive form guide going into the finals. We will know if Ricky and the Raiders are true NRL leaders.
I am going to play Antony Green and predict a shock Green Machine victory when it’s all said and done in October.
They have my vote. Even if it is on preferences.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good points WB - the Raiders face a massive 6 to 8 weeks given who they have to face in the next five rounds plus finals opponents. Will be a huge challenge for the players and coaching staff to maintain their form over this period.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Simmonsen has been a massive find and Oldfield has played really well too.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I know BJ can be a hot head but he can win big games for you as well - he has that x factor that can break open a game. I don't think Ricky will hesitate to pick him when he can prove his fitness. Plus I think he was showing maturity that we hadn't seen before prior to him getting injured earlier in the year.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Just ask BJ! I reckon he was close to decking him in a few of those games they lost last season
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Fair enough - can't disagree with that. The Raiders came up short but showed glimpses against the Storm earlier in the season; came home with a wet sail against the Roosters after letting them build a massive lead but couldn't quite get there; played one of the games of the season against an in form Bunnies and lost by 4; and also lost by 4 against a very good Manly team at Brookie when we didn't know how good the Sea Eagles were. Lots of "almost but not quite good enough". From memory I think the only really bad performance they've had for the year was getting beaten by the Cowboys by 6 at home when they were really flat after the game against the Bunnies. In a month's time we will know if they are any chance as they play 3 of that lot plus the Sharks at Shark Park. One good thing is they are virtually injury free at the moment with even BJ Leilua a chance of returning in a week or two. There are 5 or 6 going around for the Mounties who could come in if needed including Michael Oldfield, Hudson Young, Sam Williams, and Emre Guler. Oldfield and Young in particular have been great when given an opportunity. And if BJ comes back young Bailey Simmonson might have to go back to the Mounties and he has has been terrific all season.
Roar GOAT
Roar Rookie
In what has been a diabolical season for the NRL with ref blaming and generally a poor standard of games, a roosters v storm grand final would be the icing on the ordinary season cake. I would love to see the raiders get up, hell I am even wanting Manly to do well (a bit of vomit just came up typing that) if it means it won’t be a storm rosters gf.
The Barry
Roar Guru
They’re good to watch. I’m choosing my words carefully because sometimes you think I’m down on the Raiders, which isn’t the case. In their last few games they’ve beaten the Warriors, Panthers, Tigers and Dragons. You can only beat who’s in front of you but they’re not necessarily the most testing games. So far this season they’re 0/4 against Roosters, Storm, Rabbitohs and Manly, so I’d like to see them beat some teams above them to declare them genuine chances. With the Roosters, Storm, Manly and Sharks coming up we’ll have a better idea how they’re placed. If it’s any consolation, of the teams in and around the eight, they’re probably the one I can most see myself cheering for...
Stuart McLennan
Expert
They have been very good Elliot and much improved from last year. I wrote an article on Tom T and Manly recently. They will play finals and win a game or two. Just don’t see them as a premiership team this year. We will see if I am in the money in October.
Stuart McLennan
Expert
I have been impressed with Manly Geoff particularly considering where they have come from last season but for premiers it’s a 3 team race for me.
Stuart McLennan
Expert
We can talk about 5 or 6 teams that will be playing finals Baz but sometimes you want a make a call and this is mine. We will know in 8-9 weeks whether I am on the mark.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Wouldn't be dismissing Manly Stuart - they have been tremendous over the past few weeks - lots of belief there as well. DCE and Tommy Turbo are a great combo along with Jake Turbo, Marty Taupau, and the two back rowers Thompson and Sironen are going as well as anyone. I just think its great that we have 5 teams in great form plus Souths who could turn it around. The Storm are clearly stand outs but the next tier are pretty close and I think anyone of them can beat the Storm on the day
Elliot
Guest
I can't take this article seriously Stuart. You haven't even mentioned Manly. They are in great form and recently beat Melbourne at home. Please explain why you're writing them off?
Elliot
Guest
I can't take this article seriously Stuart. You haven't even mentioned Manly. They are in great form and recently beat Melbourne at home. Please explain why you're writing them off?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
So how do you rate the Raiders Baz?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
You can chuck in the Sharks as well Tom so that's 6 - although the Bunnies will have to arrest their form slump pretty quickly - the other 5 are all in good form
matth
Roar Guru
The Raiders need to wrap Hodgson in bubble wrap whenever he’s not on the field. They are lost without him and a genuine chance if he’s firing. Like Smith at the Storm and Graham at the Sharks and Tommy T at Manly. Not sure who at the Roosters.
matth
Roar Guru
Wade Graham holds the Shark’s season in his hands. What a game he had this week.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Oh well I guess it’s better than “there’s only two “ that the so called experts have been spouting all year. Personally I think there’s 5 and that five are 1-5 right now. Souths are too good to play again like they did last week and Manly are always best when they’re written off by ‘experts”
Harvey Wilson
Roar Rookie
They were good enough to beat Melbourne. They are in the conversation at least.
Aussie D
Guest
As long as it is not a repeat of recent Raiders finals history I will be happy. Don't want to see them bomb out in week 2 or 3 of the finals.