Another week gone by in the AFL and another monumental shift to the finals race.
Essendon, after looking assured of their spot in eight, suddenly find themselves only narrowly ahead of the pack following their crushing loss to Port Adelaide – who conversely are now back in the hunt themselves.
Fremantle arrested their horrid run of form with one of the upsets of the season over Geelong, while the lights were switched off at Hawthorn and St Kilda after they both suffered 22-point defeats.
So, with just three weeks to go in the home-and-away season, who are the favourites to nab the last two finals spots?
We got Roar AFL expert and editor Josh Elliott on the Game of Codes podcast to run over the last few weeks and make a call on who’ll be sliding into September and who misses out.
Listen to the discussion:
7th – Essendon – 44 points, 100.1: Bulldogs (Marvel), Dockers (Optus), Magpies (MCG)
8th – Adelaide – 40 points, 108.7: Eagles (Optus), Magpies (Adelaide), Bulldogs (Ballarat)
9th – Port Adelaide – 36 points, 106.1: Swans (Adelaide), Kangaroos (Marvel), Dockers (Adelaide)
10th – Western Bulldogs – 36 points, 95.8: Bombers (Marvel), Giants (Showgrounds), Crows (Ballarat)
11th – Fremantle – 36, 95.8: Saints (Marvel), Bombers (Optus), Power (Adelaide)
Visit our Game of Codes hub to catch the full episode and be sure to subscribe and review on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts or wherever else you’re listening.
Powa
Roar Rookie
port have beaten most of the teams in the 8
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
How are those 28 000 Lions members going to fit into the Gabba? Do well in the finals and you might see a similar rise to that of the Eagles. 12.6% off a huge base. Or lose the GF, like the Pies and get a 14.6% increase. Or win 6 games like the Blues and get a 14.7% increase. The best,I think, excepting the Giants of 19.2%,(much lower base)
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
My very point. I want a coach with fire or gumption or undeniability.
Danny
Guest
At the risk of being treasonous I also hoped we would lose and drop all remaining games as I see it as the only chance of starting a clean out and rebuild. Scraping into the 8 will do no good and consign as to a few more years of mediocrity at best.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
That was last season, not this season. This season's membership will be reflected next year. Should be a significant increase.
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
hawthorn and north no chance at all.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Fremantle make a late run at Finals they might be able to recoup 7.5% drop in Memberships from this season.
Liam Salter
Roar Guru
I know we’re unlikely, but I love how round 23 has Bulldogs v Crows and Port v Freo on the same day. Might be an intense day of footy!
IAP
Guest
It's a big toss of the coin really. At the moment I'd have my money on the Crows - they're already in the eight and they'll be desperate to stay there. The Dogs could make it, but they could come out this week and be terrible, and it'll be all over. You never know what you're going to get with them. I'l love to see the round 23 Dogs vs Crows game be for the final spot. Second on the list of chances is Port - I can see them winning all 3 remaining games. Essendon could win all 3 remaining games or lose all 3. Freo have no chance.
Redbacks fan
Guest
The Bulldogs could make it with two wins as long as one of their wins is against Adelaide in round 23. Adelaide probably won't beat West Coast this week and they would also need to lose to Collingwood which is a 50/50 game. Port Power would need to lose at least two games. With matches against Sydney, North Melbourne and Fremantle that is certainly possible. If one of Port Power's losses if to Fremantle though, Fremantle probably need to lose both of their other games against Essendon and St Kilda to not jump the Bulldogs. All of those things on their own sound plausible but when the Bulldogs are relying on all of those things to happen it becomes unlikely. So yes, Bulldogs will probably need to win their remaining three games if they want to qualify.
Brian_K
Roar Rookie
Agreed though I would through the kangas in there if they can cause a huge upset and beat the cats this weekend.
another paul
Roar Rookie
I don't think so, I don't see essendon or adelaide winning another game and if that's the case they both fall out. It also means the dogs win both of those games and then the 8 is down to the last game of the season between port and fremantle, if port win they finish 7th and dogs 8th if fremantle win the dogs finish 7th and fremantle 8th.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I'm still furious that we beat the Saints.
Trevor
Guest
Let's see Adelaide wins 0-1 - 44 points tops. Port wins 1-2 - 44 points Dogs - 2-3 - 48 points (though 44 more likely) Freo - 0-1 - 40 points. Dogs need to win all to make it, so would be percentage between the two Adelaide sides.
sammy
Guest
If you were to apply the statement to just the Adelaide Crows, it would be accurate, because if they sneak in, they are NO chance of doing much damage - and that is from an Adelaide supporter
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
North & Hawthorn are still the good old mathematical chance.
Cam
Guest
I could not disagree more on the comment that whoever sneaks into the 8 will not have any impact in the finals. When will you clowns learn...?