The 2019 AFL season has been a spectacle.
We’ve seen upsets totally destroy our tipping, spectacular marks that have left us gasping, impossible goals that have defied reality and individual performances by many amazingly talented players, but the best is yet to come.
The grand final is fast approaching, and I have studied each of the current top eight teams to come up with a prediction for September. Have a read and then post your views below to see what we’re all thinking.
Geelong dominated the first half of the season but have fallen well short of average since the bye. The fact is it will take only one loss in the finals to end their season and it is very clear the Cats are not the unbeatable team they started off as.
The Eagles are poised to go back to back. Seriously, they are in really good condition even without big Nic Naitanui. Based on their winning consistency, even with an injury list that includes one of AFL’s best ruckmen, these guys are my first tip for the grand final.
The Lions are the sleeping giants of the finals series. They’ve been just quietly going about their business below the radar while other teams have become the focus of attention for various reasons. The Lions keep winning game after game and are genuine contenders come September. But are they capable of winning the flag? Maybe!
Collingwood are hanging around like a bad smell, but don’t panic, as their run is diminishing by the week. I can’t see the Pies even making the top eight.
The Tigers have suffered injuries to key players right from Round 1, yet they’ve continued to surprise us by coming out every week and playing like absolute champions. Richmond have the potential to win the flag, especially if they get their full list back on the park.
The Bombers and the Crows have played great seasons, I doubt very much if they will do any better than the second week of the finals. Maybe next year will be stronger for both teams.
I have left Greater Western Sydney until last because I’d be shocked if they didn’t make the grand final. These guys have the talent and strength to take it right up to the Eagles and could even beat the boys from the west. My only doubt, and it’s just a small one, is whether they could beat the Lions in a preliminary final. If Brisbane were to get the job done, then look out, Eagles fans, because the boys from the Banana State have got what it takes to send the Eagles home with their tails between their legs.
So there you have it, my wrap for September. I predict a West Coast Eagles versus Greater Western Sydney grand final with the possibility of the Brisbane Lions causing an upset.
But who will win the flag? Well, we’ll find out come the end of September.
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Just wanted too say again terrible article.....GWS officially poo
Peter Warrington
Guest
What did the Tigers ever do to you?
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Its disaster starting Zac Clarke and Parish. There was a case put forward to start myers in ruck. Even hartley . At least they can rack up huge possessions and rotate with mckernan . Maybe clarke will have a one off good game. On the upside myers baguely bring some experience back in. They should just move mcgrath in to saads position , big mistake and not play mcneice. Even spring a rookie in like mosquito as think he's fit. Just pace is needed . Mcneice does nothing to little most afl games. If we can scrap it out and get brown and mckernan some delivery without saad we are a chance . Saad is a big loss only mcgrath or even tippanwuti could fill his shoes back there if they are smart they will use one of those two but I doubt they worlsfold will he loves mcneice . Guefli another big loss but begeuly is similar in the physical aspects maybe not the disposals but can kick a few more.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
If Geelong hold onto top spot, there’s every chance Tiges could finish 3rd and have to go to Perth the first week, thus pitting the two favourites against each other up front, making one of them have a much more difficult path to a flag. But see them still both getting there. Hawks and Dogs both played 4 finals to win the flag in 2015 and 2016. I don’t see Geelong being too much trouble. Will likely lose the first week (post bye) or if they get lucky like in 2016 (when Hawk’s Smith missed), win but then will lose after the next bye. Either way, I see them being a beaten prelim finalist yet again. Scott really needs the flag this year to prove he is more than just a coach who can get teams to the finals (2011 was won by the players). Brisbane might get there, but no team wins a flag without recent finals experience. There’s a lot of “historically speaking” stats out there just waiting to be broken (like you can’t win the flag from fourth in the current final 8 system), but I don’t think the Lions can break the “Win the flag without finals experience” one. The teams in the bottom half of the eight aren’t a real threat. They might mess up a top four’s plans by knocking them off in the second week, but won’t get past the prelim. They’re in the bottom four for reasons – GWS and Collingwood coz of injury, Essendon and Adelaide/Port Adelaide/Dogs because of inconsistent form. (Right now I think the best team out of the eight is Carlton! Who knows what could have been if they changed coaches a few weeks earlier. Tipping them to do a Brisbane next year) Tiges and Eagles have all the form and, like the Dogs in 2016, have most of their players over their injuries at the right time of the year, and the long term ones they have time to train up replacements. They both also have excellent depth in their starting 22s. No passengers. Can’t see Tiges doing another 2018 and i think the Eagles are well aware of avoiding doing that too. My prediction is a Tigers v Eagles grand final. The result? A draw. Then after 5 mins extra time each end, still all tied up. So, then the Tigers win on a count back of having more boundaries (i.e. in footy, clearances won from boundary throw ins). ????
JamesH
Roar Guru
No Parish, no Francis... :( I don't think they've got much choice but to persist with Clarke. They could replace him with a makeshift ruckman but what we'd gain around the ground we'd lose at the stoppages. At the very least Clarke was able to minimize the effectiveness of Ladhams and Ryder in the air, taking 5 marks to their 3 combined. Clarke should have the edge over English in the actual ruck contests. Our clearance work will improve with Heppell and Myers back. If we can hold our own in that department then we're a chance.
ben smith
Roar Rookie
Don't think the bombers will even make finals with their injury list and their run home. Worsfold and the bombers will be a force to be reckoned with if they get into finals
Pierro
Roar Rookie
your right the pies have been pretty mediocre outside of the scrappy west coast win. Demons have a chance to cause an upset if they can bring their best game
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Its a grim record against the doggies James. Still we have a habit of winning when our backs are up against it. Key this weekend is heppel and mckernan start. Saad now appears out for a game or two , guelfi now gone for season. Parish and Heppell have to pass tests. Absolutely key . They should spring myers in there for sure he's been racking up the possessions in vfl and experienced hand and they need to never let zac clarke play again. He's wearing a shirt for the opposition most games. He's a liability conceding goals as he stands there !
SeymoreButts
Roar Rookie
Melbourne still have a good performance in them methinks... they really put it to the Eagles a few weeks ago... they could pull of an upset even at this late stage. Pies will model a new forward line..that takes time to develop..could be a very low scoring match, which means the Dees wouldnt have to kick many to be right in it. ;-)
SeymoreButts
Roar Rookie
Eagles would be better off not picking Naitanui unfortunately. The guy cant get match fit in time...the lose an extra runner with him in the side and as we saw against the Pies, the opposition will eventually overrun you.. Great player, great bloke, keep him as a backup option sure... but seriously, let him prepare for next year, get a full pre season in and go again in 2020. I cant imagine them dropping Oscar Allan... the kid is their ''get out of jail free'' card... he can cover all the key positions forward or back and pinch hit in the ruck. For anyone wanting to know why they didnt pick Tim Kelly when they had the chance ,, hes the answer.!!
RT
Roar Rookie
I agree it won't happen but it is not as remote as you think. If Collingwood lose to Melbourne this weekend (unlikely) anything is possible. If the results go the right way it only requires 10 to 20 point margins for each game for the percentages to leave Collingwood out. Richmond's 9 in a row to make the finals a few years ago was much less likely but it happened. Not only did they keep winning but a lot of results went their way to key them sneak in.
JamesH
Roar Guru
I'm with you on this, Pierro. I feel like the injuries, combined with the physical toll of winning so many tough, tight, contests lately, have just pushed us past tipping point. We haven't beaten the Dogs since 2014, we haven't beaten the Dockers in Perth since 2013 and we've lost our last three vs the Pies. And that's before you factor in personnel issues. Round 23 might be do or die for us.
JamesH
Roar Guru
At this stage last year Port were only one win ahead of the teams in 9th and 10th, being Geelong and North respectively, and their percentage was worse than that of the Cats. Collingwood have a much bigger buffer.
JamesH
Roar Guru
Okay, it's mathematically possible but it's not even remotely realistic. Port is the best placed team outside the 8 and their percentage is still 7.1 points lower than Collingwood's. They'd need to thump all three of their next opponents with Collingwood suffering three comprehensive losses, AND both Essendon and Adelaide would need to jump the Pies (meaning two wins for the Bombers and 2-3 wins for the Crows). I'm not confident that either of them can win more than one game from here. It's just not going to happen.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Bombers, Pies and Giants hammered by injuries
RT
Roar Rookie
Yes, gotta love it. Go Tigers!
Powa
Roar Rookie
the crows beat bad and average sides, port can beat anyone, or lose to anyone if they get the right coin flip on the other hand, if they make the finals port will be more dangerous than the crows
Powa
Roar Rookie
port last year....
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Richmonds 8 game MCG run after Gold coast and melbourne matches post the bye is pretty much as good as it gets , never seen a draw like it. They could go all the way to final just playing at MCG without even playing another venue, especially if they win at home to west coast and brisbane which is a big advantage for them not having to travel to either of them this year
Pierro
Roar Rookie
Pies are already in finals they should beat melbourne and with percentage its enough to get them home. Not sure how deep they'll go though have looked a bit mediocre since bye