Who wins the 2019 Brownlow Medal? It’s the burning question that has been circulating after the home-and-away season drew to a close.
This time last year, we all knew who was going to win the Brownlow and the only question that was being thrown around was how many votes Tom Mitchell would win by.
However, this year’s count has become a little more complicated. There’s not just one outright front-runner like last year. Instead we have several players who all are well and truly in the mix to win, which makes the 2019 Brownlow Medal exciting and unpredictable.
The first player in the mix is Lachie Neale. It’s been a stand-out year for the 26-year-old, and he has become one of the genuine stars of the competition. Neale averages 31.3 disposals a game and he has been able to register the third most disposals for the year with 688.
Neale, however, did have a rough patch leading up to the bye round where he might struggle to poll votes. But his solid start to the year will definitely see him poll votes early, which could prove crucial.
(Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
The second player is Patrick Dangerfield. Dangerfield has had another stand-out season and he’s been spending more time up forward, which allows him to hit the scoreboard.
The 2016 Brownlow Medallist has averaged 27.3 disposals from his 21 games and has also managed to kick 25 goals. Dangerfield started very strongly, so look to see him poll votes early. Dangerfield will also come home very strongly with his last three games all great performances where it’s likely he’ll poll three votes in these matches.
The third player is Tim Kelly. Kelly started off the season brilliantly and look to see him poll many votes before the bye rounds. However, he’ll will struggle to poll votes in the second half of the season – his form dropped off as the season progressed. The question for Kelly is whether he polled enough votes in the first half of the season to hang on?
The fourth player in the mix is Patrick Cripps. A solid start to the season will see him poll early votes. Cripps averaged 28 disposals this year, however the only cloud that hangs over his head is that he didn’t play in enough winning games with Carlton. But he’s one man that is very unpredictable in this Brownlow count – he’ll certainly be in the mix.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The fifth candidate is Nat Fyfe. Fyfe played some solid footy in the first half of the season and look for him to poll votes from Rounds 5 to 9. This is where he played very well and he should definitely poll votes in this period.
Fyfe averaged 29.2 disposals from his 20 games and was a stand-out player for the Dockers. Fyfe, along with Dangerfield, could potentially be a dual Brownlow Medallist.
Another contender this year will be Marcus Bontempelli, who will poll well but won’t be able to win because Jack Macrae and Josh Dunkley most likely have stolen votes from the classy left-footer.
Dustin Martin is ineligible, however he will also poll votes, which could see him finish in the top bracket of the count.
There’s also Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. Is it possibly the year of the ruckman? Gawn had a wonderful middle part to the year and he could potentially register some votes in the rounds leading up to the bye.
Meanwhile, Grundy had another brilliant season where he could potentially poll votes early on and also towards the end of the season. However, in past years, ruckmen don’t tend to poll as well as the midfielders but certainly don’t rule them out.
So who wins? Lachie Neale, Patrick Dangerfield, Nat Fyfe and Patrick Cripps will indeed be the top four contenders.
However, I believe Patrick Dangerfield could take home the medal this year. His season has been unbelievable. He has found so much of the footy and is so influential in games with his prodigious kick and intensity around the contest. He’s also hit the scoreboard, and when he kicks goals, usually they’re at crucial moments.
Dangerfield’s last three games will get him over the line. These game will see him come over the top and win.
No matter what the result, this year’s Brownlow Medal count is going to be one for the ages.
Charles
Guest
I say that patrick crips, danger, Neale and fye will all win the brown low creating the first ever four way.
Simoc
Guest
While I want Lachie Neale to win I have no idea on the others except that Fyfe and (I think) Dangerfield, have already won it. I like the fact that the umpires aren't number crunchers and don't see the stats before deciding where to award points. None of our commentators in AFL now, know to much without constantly referring to stats. Without stats these guys are like headless chooks. There are some old school like Leigh Matthews.
Jack A
Guest
Are you Martin’s girlfriend? May as well be!
berrlins
Roar Pro
The Dogs fan in me would love the Bont to take it but I do see Danger taking it out, he's had an awesome year. My tip: Danger, Neale, Bont, Fyfe.
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Ablett was robbed again like the 2008 norm smith
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Both would be there
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Martin is in Ablett’s boat.
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Martin then danger n Fyfe.........you no me yattuzzi
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Danger then Fyfe.
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Sure is....a champion wins it this year
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Yes, too soft.
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Neale will not win it
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
Won't be surprised if it's a tie (will they count back on number goals kicked? :P ) Dangerfield and Neale to tie it for mine.
Peter Warrington
Guest
Could be a Priddis type year. Yeo or Boak? A crouch?
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Watch dusty 29 he’ll get it
Iambillbob
Roar Rookie
Martin is cut above all of maximum damage
Big AL
Roar Rookie
Good article Josh. Promises to be one of the more interesting vote counts for as long as I can remember. Would have been great for them to hold it during this weekend's bye rather than waiting for GF week. Interestingly although Tom Mitchell was the raging favourite last year there was only 4 votes in it at the end. I think it could be a tie with two or three equal at the end of the count. Lachie Neale and the Bont for me. Dangerfield and Kelly will share votes and I dont think Cripps will get enough 3 votes given Carlton's win/loss record. Dont be surprised if Dusty makes a big run towards the back end.
Nick
Roar Guru
non-rover then.
IAP
Guest
I too love watching him (probably a bit too much)! His decision making and skills are what sets him apart from the possession gathering types; it's what puts a score on the board and win games. You can't train it either. The only other two players in the game who are at the same level, in terms of footy brain, are probably Pendlebury and Martin. Even Danger and Fyfe, as good as they are, don't cut teams apart the same way.
TomC
Roar Guru
I hope he wins. He's not just a brilliant player, but he's one of the most interesting to watch. It's even better that he won the AFLCA award, and won it fairly comfortably. It suggests that coaches and recruiting staff see the value in aggressive, exciting players who offer something different to what they currently have. As much as I love Lachie Neale, as a neutral I'd much rather watch a game with more Bontempelli-types.