Australian selectors should hold their nerve for the fourth Test

With the Ashes series level at 1-1, the fourth Test looms as a pivotal one for both countries.

Australia only need to tie the series to retain the Ashes, meaning one win in the next two matches will achieve that. England, however, need to win the series outright, so at the very least need one more victory.

After Australia’s loss in the third Test at Headingley, there has been hysteria about the make up of the Australian side. It is easy to forget England only prevailed after one of the greatest Test innings of all time and that Australia were on top for the best part of three and half days.

It was only in the last hour or so that the momentum swung England’s way, yet even then Australia had chances to clench the victory. So why then are pundits so keen to swing the axe?

Test match cricket selection isn’t purely a numbers game. There are many more factors to consider than just batting and bowling averages. You need to look at form, confidence and conditions, while gut feel also comes into it.

Selectors’ decisions can be made to look genius or terrible depending on the outcome. After defeat at Headingley, the selectors will be feeling the pressure to make a few changes for this Test. But are they just changes for change’s sake?

Changes to the bowling attack aren’t going to improve Australia’s chances of winning. A bowling line-up that has the capacity to knock a side over for 67 is good enough to win any Test match. Rumours and popular opinion are suggesting that Mitchell Starc should be brought into the side, but I just don’t see how that improves things.

(Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

One theory going around is that Starc being a left-hander would create foot marks for Nathan Lyon to expose late in the game. Another theory is that Starc bowls well to the tailenders. These are two things that Starc can bring to the side, but they won’t be the difference between winning and losing.

Barring injury, Australia should go into Old Trafford with the same attack. You can make an argument for any of the reserve bowlers to get a game. Peter Siddle was serviceable in the first two Tests, Michael Neser has been bowling well throughout the tour matches and we know what Starc can bring to the Test arena. If called upon, any of them would do a more-than-serviceable job but now is not that time.

After a loss, often all the good things that have been done right can be overlooked for the negatives. The four bowlers bowled well enough for Australia to win the Test match and as such I hope that selectors maintain the faith.

The easy choice is to rest James Pattinson and bring in Starc. The harder decision is to hold firm and back in the line-up from Headingley. If Australia don’t win the fourth Test, the selectors can say they made changes and they didn’t pay off. It is much harder to justify a loss after no changes have been made, so I think they will bring in Starc into the team.

The area of much greater concern for Australia is the batting. Lucky for Australia they have the ultimate luxury of bringing back the best batsman in the world in Steven Smith. Marnus Labuschagne’s inclusion as the first ever concussion substitution was a blessing in disguise for Australia, with the gritty right-hander passing 50 in all three of his Ashes innings to date.

However, Labuschagne’s success has left the selectors with a tough decision. With Smith coming in and Labuschagne set to hold his spot, who makes way?

Travis Head and Matthew Wade have done just enough this series to maintain their place, although you can never be sure. The player to make way would most likely be one of David Warner, Marcus Harris or Usman Khawaja.

Hell will freeze over before David Warner is dropped from an Australian side. He should be coming under intense scrutiny after making five scores under ten in six innings and is a walking wicket at the top of the order for Jofra Archer and Stuard Broad.

But the selectors’ form guide suggests he’s just not being dropped. The Australian camp love what David Warner brings to the side. The other reason why Warner won’t get dropped is that the selectors already dropped Cameron Bancroft in a sacrificial offering to appease the fans. The selectors can’t be seen to be dropping both openers in one series, so they’ve bought themselves some time for Warner.

In Warner’s defence, his fielding and catching was phenomenal in the third Test. Selectors and fans will hope that this is a sign of things to come.

That leaves one of Harris or Khawaja as the unlucky candidate to make way. Knowing the Australian selectors over the years, they will take the easy option and drop Harris, but Khawaja should be the one to move on.

Khawaja’s average in Tests outside Australia is a mediocre 28.13 and apart from the match-saving innings against Pakistan in the UAE, Khawaja has failed to replicate his home form, where he averages a very healthy 52.97.

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

Unlike Warner, Khawaja has no second string to his bow. His fielding is still a massive flaw in his game. Far too many times Khawaja’s inability to take the 50/50 catch or not being able to prevent an easy single lets the opposition off the hook.

At some point the selectors needs to cut their losses with Khawaja and move on. Looking promising getting to 20 and finding a way to get out doesn’t cut it any more. However, the selectors won’t make this tough call for the fourth Test. They’ll opt for the easier option by dropping Harris and moving Khawaja to the top of the order to partner Warner.

Harris has every right to feel unlucky in this situation. Logic suggests that you if you are picked to play Test match cricket you should be afforded more than one game to prove your worth to the team. Others would argue that Harris is lucky to be in the side in the first place and that Bancroft deserved one more opportunity at the top of the order to cement his spot.

It just so happens that in this Test match, Harris will be replaced by the best batsmen in the world so he can’t really complain. But that doesn’t mean the decision is fair – sport at the top level rarely is. I hope for Harris’ sake that he gets another opportunity, but my guess would be the selectors will take the easy way out and move him on.

Regardless, time will tell which moves the selectors make and if they are the correct ones. I would rather see Australia stick to their guns and back the team from Headingley in to get the job done at Old Trafford.

The only change I would make is Smith in and Khawaja out. Let’s hope the selectors see things the same way. With a little bit of help from Steven Smith and a little bit of luck, Australia should back themselves to claim victory in the fourth Test and retain the Ashes.