Both the Melbourne Storm and South Sydney Rabbitohs will fight to avoid the embarrassment of a straight-sets elimination from September when they face the Parramatta Eels and Manly Sea Eagles in their respective semi-finals this weekend.
For the second time this season, the Storm were beaten at home by the Canberra Raiders, while the Rabbitohs were ambushed by the Sydney Roosters at the SCG.
Meantime, the Sea Eagles sent the Sharks secured a knockout win over the Sharks at Lottoland, while the Eels recorded the largest finals win in Australian rugby league history by thrashing the Broncos 58-0.
At stake for the winners of this weekend’s semi-finals are a shot at the Raiders (for the victor of the Rabbitohs vs Sea Eagles) and the Roosters (for the winner of the Storm vs Eels) in the preliminary finals.
Here is your guide to the weekend’s two semi-finals.
Rabbitohs vs Sea Eagles
This season: Sea Eagles won 13-12 at Lottoland in Round 4; Rabbitohs won 21-20 at ANZ Stadium in Round 17.
Last meeting in a final: Rabbitohs won 40-24 at Allianz Stadium, second qualifying final, 2014.
The Bunnies have been a revelation this season under supercoach Wayne Bennett, repeating their third-place finish, 16-8 win-loss record from last year and winning six out of a possible nine matches against their fellow top-eight teams.
This came despite the early retirement of veteran fullback Greg Inglis, with the captaincy passed onto Sam Burgess as a result.
Burgess’ absence due to suspension proved telling, however, as the Bunnies were manhandled by the Roosters last Friday night.
Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images
They would have gone in confident of completing a hat-trick against the Chooks, having beaten them twice in the regular season for the first time since 2009.
As for Manly, despite boasting a horror injury toll, they raced out to an 18-0 lead en route to beating the Sharks 28-16 to send Paul Gallen into retirement.
Back after seven years away from the club, coach Des Hasler has turned a dispirited side that finished second-last under Trent Barrett last year into one contending for premierships again.
He will now come up against fellow veteran Bennett in a final for the third time, and will be hoping it’s third time lucky after Bennett won their match-ups in 2010 and 2013.
But at home, the Rabbitohs should bounce back and win their way through.
Prediction: Rabbitohs by eight points.
Storm vs Eels
This season: Storm won 64-10 at Suncorp Stadium in Round 9.
Last meeting in a final: Storm won 18-16 at AAMI Park, first qualifying final, 2017.
Craig Bellamy’s side were uncharacteristically poor in the first half against Canberra, but while they managed to take a 10-6 lead in the second stanza, they were brought undone when John Bateman crossed for the winner less than five minutes out from full-time.
The Storm retrieved their own short kick-off, before controversy followed when winger Suliasi Vunivalu was incorrectly adjudged to have put his hand out of bounds, thus costing his side a late chance at victory.
The Eels celebrated their first final at Bankwest Stadium by thrashing the Brisbane Broncos 58-0 and setting the record for the largest victory and most points by a team in a finals match.
The latter record was also held by Parra, who defeated the Warriors 56-12 in the 2001 qualifying final at the since-demolished Parramatta Stadium.
It was the first time any side had scored 50 points or more in a finals match since the Broncos thrashed the Knights 50-6 en route to winning the most recent of their six premierships. And the year prior, in 2005, the Wests Tigers thrashed the Cowboys by the same scoreline before winning the title three weeks later.
Therefore, fans of the blue and gold can dare to dream of their side winning it all this year.
It came a fortnight after the Eels suffered a heartbreaking golden point loss to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium, which was also the venue where they suffered a 64-10 thrashing at the hands of the Melbourne Storm in Magic Round back in May.
History is against the away side, who have come away empty-handed in five finals meetings against the Storm – the 1999 and 2007 preliminary finals, the 2009 grand final, and the 2006 and 2017 qualifying finals. Each time, Melbourne have gone on to reach the grand final.
At home, Craig Bellamy’s side should take the chocolates and set up a grand final rematch against the Chooks at the SCG next Saturday night.
Prediction: Storm by 12 points.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
Can you imagine the almost Impossible? Parra v Manly? That would break the bank and have re-runs from the 80’s highlights running all week.
Superspud
Roar Rookie
"The Bunnies have been a revelation this season under super coach Wayne Bennett". Did they not make the prelim final last season? In my opinion they were a better side in 2018.
RoryStorm
Guest
I thought Bellamy might revert back to Papanhuyzen on the bench with Hughes back at full back and Croft back at half back. The last game Croft played a couple of weeks back he was very good. Okay, it wasn't a final but he did play in the GF last year and after losing I thought he might have a point to prove. Who knows if Bellamy's playing games with the half back position and has Croft straining on a leash if they can make it through to next week or the GF. I think based on past performances and finishing on top of the ladder this year, the Storm should be too good for Parramatta but I'm afraid that's as far as we will go this year. Still, considering all the players we have let go in the last 3-4 seasons I think the team have performed well above most people expectations. Every year the Storm get written off by the so called "experts" on the Roar but kudos to Bellamy for keeping them relevant even if this season is just a bridge too far.
Randy
Roar Rookie
So we could possibly get a Raiders vs Eels grand final, or a Rabbitohs vs Roosters one. The NRL would be ecstatic with either of those options. Gotta knock those filthy Storms and Sea Eagles out first.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yes, probably harsh on Hughs when it really is the whole combo on the right along with Smith that contributed to him being caught with the ball a few times and as I said the try and repeat set was from his kicking. Add to that both Camerons failed to fire and the attack was pretty much blunted. That Eels pack looked pretty good against a decent Broncos pack last week so I won’t be counting them out. I think though there might be more opportunity for Paps in the middle and edges as the Raiders have a far more mobile pack that just managed to snuff out some of his runs. For me though its the momentum coming off a record score in Finals against a team that lost last week that I think will do far more for the Eels.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I think you might be a bit harsh on Hughes. He is going alright at 7 , though he is probably better at fullback. But he is there for a Bellamy dual strategy to get Papy on the park & fix their right side defensive problems. He has at least strengthened their right edge defence ( they just need to worry about Vunivalu out wider, now). And on Saturday I thought he looked to be the only threat to the Raiders well organised defence. Munster looks to be struggling with his injury and Smith was well handled by the Raiders terriors around the ruck. The big problem for the Storm was that the Raiders pack dominated them for most of that first half and the Raiders really should have laid on more points before halftime. Not sure that the Eels pack can dominate like the Raiders did, and so that would limit Moses' effectiveness ( and save Papenhuyzen from another bomb attack) and give the Storm playmakers more options to attack. I am expecting normal Storm transmission to return on Saturday night, unless the Eels pack can somehow get well over the Storm pack.
Joe
Roar Rookie
I'm not convinced of the Storm at the moment. They were so flat in the opening 20 last week and if that happens again with the Eels on such a high they might be handed another home loss. I think the late change in spine might come back to bite them. I do think that is the best spine for the Storm going forward but I think for this Finals series they're still finding their way which is not ideal. They need at least an off season training together. Hughes in particular is struggling at 7 but that said he was the one getting the repeat set off his kick and also got the kick in for Vunivalu's try. I also think Smith is taking too much time getting the ball to him and he needs at times in attack to just pass the ball quickly instead of taking a look for himself. That extra second is causing Hughes to get caught with the ball. He needs to trust his halves and provide quick service when they've got momentum in attack. Weirdly for this finals series I have the Eels as my second team and I said a few weeks ago they'd be the team to break both the 50 points and bottom four hoodoo. Unfortunately the two teams play each other early...but either way whoever wins this is going to have a helluva mountain next week coming up against a rested, red hot Roosters outfit.
Dogs Boddy
Roar Rookie
Sharks!!! Sorry force of habit. You would have to say the Eels are clear underdogs for their decided against the purple machine, while the Rabbits / Sea Eagles game should be a lot closer. For me, I really want to tip the Eels in an upset because they just believe they can and nobody else does. However they will find the going a lot tougher against a side that actually turns up to play, and the Storm are just amazingly difficult to beat at home. Storm by plenty but I hope it is still a contest. Sea Eagles over the Rabbits in a tight one. I really liked the way Manly played last week and the Rabbits are just not looking like the footy team I expected them to be at this time of year. It will be a tight contest but Manly should have enough to get up. Manly by a Sam Burgess provided penalty goal.
Rob
Guest
Have a feeling we will see two upsets this week. Not that it will matter as I think it will be a Roosters Raiders GF regardless.
Brendon Steven
Guest
This is a disgrace for the storm to be beaten by the Canberra raiders at home twice for this season! are they not even aware of the first defeat? and also forgotten to make prior changes when taking raiders for the second time? any ways we'll improve on that the next time.