There is just over a week to go before the NRL grand final – but before that, this weekend we will know the identities of the two teams that will take part in the big dance.
Fresh off a week’s break the Canberra Raiders and Sydney Roosters will start the prohibitive favourites to win their respective preliminary finals on Friday and Saturday, but both will face teams that defeated them during the regular season.
While the Raiders and Roosters rested the South Sydney Rabbitohs put an end to the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles’ season with a 34-26 win at ANZ Stadium, while the Melbourne Storm shut the Parramatta Eels out 32-0 in the other semi-final at AAMI Park.
On Friday night, the Raiders will tackle the Rabbitohs – who won their only regular season encounter by 16-12 on Election Night in May – at a sold-out GIO Stadium, while on Saturday night it’s the grand final rematch between the Roosters and the Storm at the SCG.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Here is your preview to the two preliminary finals.
Raiders vs Rabbitohs
This season: Rabbitohs won 16-12 at GIO Stadium in Round 10.
Last meeting in a finals match: Rabbitohs won 38-16 at ANZ Stadium, first semi-final, 2012.
For the Canberra Raiders this is arguably their biggest match since the 1994 premiership, with the club having gone through a quarter of a century of heartbreak and near-misses since.
After finishing third at the end of the season – their second top-four finish in four years – the Raiders travelled south to Melbourne and replicated its win over the Melbourne Storm at AAMI Park to advance straight to a home preliminary final.
There they will face the South Sydney Rabbitohs, who rebounded from their heavy qualifying final loss to the Sydney Roosters to defeat the Sea Eagles 34-26 and secure a preliminary final berth for the fifth time in the past eight years.
Rabbitohs coach Wayne Bennett has ordered his players to make their own way to the nation’s capital, where they will spend the entire Thursday acclimatising to the conditions ahead of what is expected to be an unforgiving sold-out crowd at GIO Stadium.
It was an initiative he came up with earlier this year, and it proved successful when the Bunnies won 16-12 back in Round 10.
But Ricky Stuart’s Raiders will be refreshed on Friday night after having the week off – thanks to its heroics in Melbourne nearly a fortnight ago.
It will be the first time Bennett and Stuart go head-to-head in a finals match since the 2002 preliminary final, when rookie coach Stuart guided his Roosters to a 16-12 win over Bennett’s Broncos on the same day the AFL’s Brisbane Lions won their second consecutive flag.
It will also be the first time the Rabbitohs and Raiders face each other in September since 2012, when the Bunnies won convincingly 38-16 on their way to the preliminary final.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
This time it will be the Green Machine who start favourites as they attempt to put an end to a quarter of a century of heartbreak which followed their most recent premiership in 1994.
For the winner: A berth in the grand final – for either side their first since winning their most recent premierships in 1994 in the case of the Raiders or 2014 for the Rabbitohs.
For the loser: Season over.
Prediction: Raiders by eight points.
Roosters vs Storm
This season: Roosters won 21-20 at AAMI Park in Round 6; Storm won 14-12 at the Adelaide Oval in Round 15.
Last meeting in a finals match: Roosters won 21-6 at ANZ Stadium, grand final, 2018.
The grand final rematch comes a week earlier than anticipated when the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm lock horns in the second preliminary final at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Saturday night.
The Storm and Roosters may have finished as the two best-performed teams during the regular season, but after the Roosters won their qualifying final and the Storm lost theirs it means they will instead be playing for a place in the decider rather than for the actual premiership.
This is just one of the flaws of the current NRL finals system, in which teams one and two could face each other in a preliminary final – under the old McIntyre system that was scrapped in February 2012 this was not possible.
The Roosters will go into the match off a week’s rest following their qualifying final win over the Rabbitohs, but will be without forward Jared Waerea-Hargreaves who copped a one-game ban from the tribunal for tripping his opponent.
His absence aside the Chooks will otherwise field another strong team as they attempt to force their way into another grand final, which would see them start favourites to become the first repeat premiers in a unified competition since the Brisbane Broncos in 1992-93.
Having announced that he would retire at the end of this season, halfback Cooper Cronk will be out to continue his premiership push while at the same time ending his former club’s season a game short of four straight grand finals.
Standing in their way are the Melbourne Storm, who will be gracing the Sydney Cricket Ground for the first time in their 22-year history.
After an uncharacteristically lacklustre performance in their qualifying final loss to the Canberra Raiders at home, Craig Bellamy’s side came out all guns firing in their semi-final against the Parramatta Eels – winning by 32-0 and not giving their opponents a look-in.
And while it will be the first time the team plays at the iconic ground, for their captain Cameron Smith it will be his second match at the ground after he played in the Centenary Test in 2008.
The Storm have prepared for this match by emulating the SCG’s rugby league dimensions on Olympic Park Oval – the former site of the old Olympic Park Stadium which is now used by AFL club Collingwood as a training field.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
League experts are already writing off the Storm’s chances – not only is it their first game at the SCG, they will also be facing a Roosters side which has turned their temporary home into a fortress by winning their last nine games and outscoring their opponents by 336-72.
This came after the Roosters endured two decades without a win at the ground, their previous win prior to this season coming against the Parramatta Eels in 1999.
The key to the Storm’s chances of winning – and thus qualifying for a fourth straight grand final which would come a decade after they achieved the same feat between 2006-09 – is shutting down Roosters centre Latrell Mitchell, who has made a habit of outscoring the opposition in several matches at the SCG this year.
Storm centre Curtis Scott is set to be given the unenviable task of marking the former NSW centre, having been recalled into the side last week at the expense of Will Chambers.
For the winner: The Roosters will get the chance to become the first repeat premiers in over a quarter of a century – for the Storm a fourth consecutive grand final and a shot at a fourth premiership to go with the titles they won in 1999, 2012 and 2017.
For the loser: Season over, a long summer to ponder what could have been and – for Cooper Cronk – retirement.
Prediction: Roosters by ten points.
Pickett
Guest
It really is a case of Rock,Paper,Scissors and...I dunno, fire? Canberra has less of chance beating Easts than Sou ffs, but have better chance of beating Melba than Sou ffs. Work all that out. Fascinating combinations and permuations. My tips: Easts by 4, Souths by 10. Souths are due for a big game.
Stormy
Roar Rookie
A lot could depend on the Scott/Mitchell match up. Both have history with the niggle & both fire up very easily. Could be that the first to become unsettled & do something stupid, could decide the Roosters/Storm game. Maybe the one who retaliates will decide it - may be interesting. Should be a good game.
RJ
Guest
The only reason why the roosters winning record is 44% without JWH is he was injured in 2016 - along with other key roosters players - and we came 2nd last that year. Take 2016 out of the equation and the percentage shoots up
Albo
Roar Rookie
Two great games coming up . I would not be surprised who won the two matches. I am of the belief that the Chooks & Storm will be playing their grand final a week early and who ever wins may be vulnerable backing up the following week against the Raiders or Bunnies ? I just love the potential key match ups in both matches. In Canberra we have Cook v Hodgson, Reynolds v Wighton, Walker v Sezer, Murray v Tapine, Sam B v Papalli. Whilst at the SCG we see Smith v Verrills / Friend, Munster v Cronk, Hughes v Keary, Teddy v Pappy, Scott v Mitchell, Olam v Manu, Tupou v Addo-Carr. Such great match ups. My assessment is that, if they don't get stage fright, the Raiders should use the home ground advantage and week off to get over the bunnies. In the other match , I am tipping a Storm upset with Bellamy's late changes to their right side in Hughes & Scott proving vital in closing down the Chooks dangerous left side attack around Keary & Mitchell, whilst the master Smith & big match Munster finish off the winning task.
watda
Guest
A fair bit of emphasis being put on the rooster's missing JWH and their record without him. If you dig a bit deeper other vital players were missing in some of those games as well. Robbo will have a plan....Rooster's v Raiders GF.
Chris
Roar Pro
Thinking NAS and JBrom will love the absence of JWH in the middle and the Storm will win off their go-forward. But the Roosters' outside backs and halves are, man for man, very much the Storm's betters and it will be interesting to see if Curtis and Olam are able to contain Latrell and Manu.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
This is Rugby League Dutski. Go back and tip with your heart. The Storm purred against Parra but stuttered against the Raiders. Your mob should be too strong. Just have to get on terms up front.
Dutski
Roar Guru
I'm tipping with my head - Storm to win against the Chooks. They are purring and the Roosters without JWH are vulnerable. Canberra's biggest risk is complacency. Their centres and second rowers will be licking their lips at the prospect of running at
two speed bumpsthe Bunnies outside backs who were poor last week. But if the Green Machine don't own the middle then the Bunnies will make them pay there. I can't imagine Souths will be as poor two weeks in a row. Should be a cracking couple of games.Rob
Guest
Both games could easily go either way. We are in for a great weekend of footy. Just have a feeling Souths will get the Raiders. The Raiders have lost a few big games at home this year and have a few players that have only played one game in the last 3-4 weeks. Whether that means they'll be rusty or come out firing I have no idea but my money is on Souths. Roosters and Melbourne is tough. No JWH is a massive out and could cost them this game. Although if they contain the Melbourne forwards then I think their backline takes care of the rest.
Adam Bagnall
Roar Guru
How are the Rabbitohs still alive? Played terribly against the Roosters and then again against Manly. Surely Raiders put them out of their misery. Melbourne vs Raiders GF with the Raiders getting home
Big Daddy
Guest
In 100% agreeance. Before the current system was in place every one was complaining the previous system was flawed. All we know is one of last year's grand finalists won't be there. I don't go for this grand final rematch hype as basically teams are different, grounds are different and what's at stake is different. I'm sure it will be a great match.
Harry
Guest
Honestly I'm not sure how much can be read into Souths' defeat of Canberra way back in Round 10. The Rabbitohs were one of the form teams of the competition back then and the Raiders were still ironing out their new combinations. Both teams are performing very differently now.
Paul
Roar Guru
Yeah, I have say I didn't understand that comment at all, DP. It's not a given 1 should play 2 in a GF. Look at last year where one point separated the top 4 sides from the next 4 at the end of the regular season. Which "1" deserves to play which "2"?
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
I think you could safely predict the GF winner after this weekend. I don't see Souths beating Storm in a GF, but they could (with some luck and extra effort) down Easts. Only Canberra can beat Storm, Souths have a better chance of beating chooks than Raiders.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
1 playing 2 in a prelim isn't a flaw in my book, it's a great way to stop GF repeats. And anticipating that Storm will beat the chooks we also get a new premier. Even better.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
Him and me both.. :)
Paul
Roar Guru
not at all Rudy, they played a brilliant first half last year and rightly deserved to win the premiership. I'm talking about the game itself where the Storm didn't turn up to play, had no answer to Robinson's game plan that included Cronk and could do nothing against a great defence - nor did they ever look like making a game of it. Kudos to Easts but the game itself was boring, certainly way more so than the Aussie Rules GF. PS the only time I haaaaaate the Roosters is when they play the mighty Dragons and given the way my boys are going, I'll have plenty of reasons to not be happy with your boys in the next few seasons!
RudyZarzoff
Guest
Just come out and say it paul, you haaaaaate the mighty Roosters.
Paul
Roar Guru
I have no idea how you came up with your predictions, Avatar, especially the winning margins. Melbourne have not lost a game this year by more than 4 points, split the regular season games with the Roosters, won the minor premiership by a handy margin, don't have to contend with JWH ( as the commentators pointed out several times, when he plays the Roosters win 68% of their games, when he doesn't, that drops in to the 40's) and are coming off a morale boosting win over Parra - and you have Easts winning by nearly 2 converted tries. Ditto with the Raiders. Big Sam's back, the only time they played in Canberra this year, Souths won in front of a pretty full house, they played some very good attacking footy against Manly, yet Canberra's going to win by 8? Based on this article, the only thing the Raiders & Roosters have in their favour is home ground advantage, yet both Souths and the Storm have shown they can win important games away from home. I expect both games to be way closer than you suggest and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the Storm played Souths in a week's time.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
The TAB has the Melbourne paying $2.40. Not bad odds considering they were minor premiers by 6 points, and Hargreaves is out. Should be a great game.