The history of the World Cup tournament says that a team that loses a pool match has never gone on to win the Webb Ellis trophy.
But there have been a couple of close encounters that threatened to change this.
France lost two World Cup pool matches in 2011, to New Zealand and Tonga, and came back to lose 8-7 in the final.
England lost to South Africa in the pool phase of the 2007 World Cup in a landslide defeat and came back to give the Springboks a tough, close encounter before losing to penalty goals.
Could this be the tournament when a team that loses a pool round match turns around and carries off the Webb Ellis trophy?
This scenario is going to happen sometime and this tournament might be the time.
We now have three potential winners of the tournament – South Africa, Ireland and Australia – all going into the finals with a pool loss marring their record.
So my take on the Wallabies’ loss to Wales is that they, like Ireland and South Africa, are down but not yet out.
This has been a bizarre World Cup so far.
It would not surprise if bizarre results like Japan’s convincing win over Ireland – a boil-over on a par with Japan’s defeat of South Africa in 2015 World Cup – continue throughout the finals.
The point is that Ireland would probably defeat Japan the next four times they play.
And similarly if the Wallabies play Wales again in the finals, you would not put money on Wales pulling off another victory.
Incidentally, this was the first victory in a World Cup Wales have recorded against the Wallabies since 1987.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
It was a victory that was virtually handed to Wales by some careless play by the Wallabies in the first half.
The careless play revolved around the halfback combination of Will Genia and Bernard Foley.
They played with such a lack of combination that you would think they had been introduced to each other for the first time at the beginning of the match.
It was a loose pass, after Wales had converted a controversial penalty, that led to a brilliant interception by Gareth Davies, who seems to have inherited some of the genius genes of the real Gareth the halfback, Sir Gareth Edwards.
Wales chased the kick off hard. They smashed Michael Hooper. They swarmed over him and won the turnover. Then Dan Biggar dropped back into the pocket like a quarterback, and calmly kicked a drop goal.
Then Biggar recovered from a Michael Hooper shoulder-charge, and kicked wide to the extremity of the field guarded by Marika Koroibete.
Koroibete is no Israel Folau under a high ball. Hadleigh Parkes pulled in the catch easily and Wales had scored their first try.
At this stage of the match, it looked like Wales were going to surge away for a victory.
But to the credit of the Wallabies, virtually the first time they got their hands on the ball inside the Wales half, they constructed a series of surging plays rather like those that disconcerted the All Blacks at Perth.
And like the All Blacks, Wales had no answer to the smashing runs, some slick passing and footwork, and then a clever kick from Foley that was gathered in by a rampaging Adam Ashley-Cooper to score a try that was not converted.
Penalties were exchanged between the two sides and then came the incident that decided the match in the 28th minute. More accurately, the intervention by the TMO, New Zealander Ben Skeen determined the outcome of the match.
Wales were awarded a penalty when Samu Kerevi raised his forearm towards the throat of Welsh five-eighth Rhys Patchell.
Kerevi’s style of raising his elbow as a way of protecting the ball and fending off a tackler in a collision is always fraught.
And replays of the incident did show some contact with the throat of Patchell.
The interesting aspect of the incident was that the illegality of Kerevi’s style of running was raised as a defence by the Wallabies to the charge of a head-high collision against Reece Hodge, for which he is serving a three-week penalty.
This argument, which had merit, was that it was the Fijian runner not Hodge who was responsible for the collision.
In a discussion earlier in the week, I pointed out that it was only a matter of time before a runner is going to be penalised for putting his shoulder or his fore-arm into the throat or head of a tackler.
The irony is that the first runner to be punished for this action at this World Cup tournament was a Wallaby.
Michael Hooper carried on arguing with the referee Romain Poite, which was OK. But when he suggested that the Wallabies couldn’t get anything from the officials, he went too far.
(Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
But, to his credit, from then on Hooper let his action speak louder than any of his rejected words. He played a blinder and even won an important line-out in the second half when the Wallabies were surging with a genuine jump and catch.
Unfortunately for the Wallabies they dropped their composure terribly after this Kerevi incident when Patchell slotted the penalty shot.
Then came the interception that turned the game violently towards Wales giving the Six Nations champions a 23-8 lead at half-time.
Before the Patchell incident and the interception, sideline observer Rod Kafer said Wales are looking tired.
And in his half-time summary, Kafer blasted the Wallabies for their stupid play and over-reaction to decisions going against them. But, he insisted, if the Wallabies played more directly he believed that they could pull off an unlikely victory.
Wales scored an early field goal and then remained scoreless as the Wallabies, using the direct Perth method – with Matt Toomua playing an aggressive blinder replacing Foley – started to pull back the lead Wales had established.
The scoreline got to 26-25 following a tries by Dane Haylett-Petty and Michael Hooper, then a penalty by Toomua.
Wales kicked off after this successful penalty. And, fatefully for the Wallabies, Nic White – who had been energetic and lively with his passing and running – put in a fateful box kick.
As soon as he made the kick, which was not intended to go into touch, I had a feeling that he had probably kicked the game away from the Wallabies.
The Wallabies had over 70 per cent of possession in the second half. And the weight of this possession was squeezing the last dredges of resistance from the Welsh defenders.
Now White had given Wales some precious possession relief, around the halfway mark. The Wallabies conceded a penalty.
Wales went for a line-out inside the Wallabies 22. The Welsh jumper had Wallabies hands over him during his leap.
And Patchell, a dead-eyed kicker, booted over the penalty, giving Wales a four-point buffer, which they defended not without alarms until the final whistle.
In those last desperate minutes of play, as the Wallabies threw everything at the Welsh defenders, half the lights in the stadium went out.
There is a metaphor somewhere in this.
For the Wallabies, they are half out of the tournament. But not entirely out.
They showed enough to suggest that any team they play in the finals is going to have a hard time defeating them.
Moreover, for now anyway, Michael Cheika has solved his No.10 problem with Matt Toomua providing the answer with a dominating performance.
The Wallabies are down after losing to Wales in this pool match. But they are not out… yet.
Drew
Roar Rookie
CLL I acknowledged, but you hardly provided a convincing list of 3 better 10's Cooper's (who let’s be clear I like) Super Rugby form this year was hardly convincing in that he was an out and out better 10 than Foley with most of the stats having him slightly behind for the season. I think too many people have 2011 Cooper in their heads. He is the only one that you could argue subjectively is a better 10. Toomua has had a few runs as 10 at international level in recent times and until these last two games hasn't convinced anyone that he's our starting 10 in the couple of prior internationals where he did play 10. Again, he's spent most of his recent time playing 12, including over at Leicester Tigers. O’Connor, I don't think has played much 10 since the dramas back in 2013 and has spent most of his time since such as when he was at Sale in the 12 jersey which seems to be his preferred position. Stewart, whilst a great young player and possible future prospect spent a season in a predominately loosing Super side where he was moved from 10 to mainly fullback or inside centre and replaced by Hegarty. He's been spending most of his NRC games at 12 where I suspect the Reds will play him next season. I'm all for criticism, but some of the unsubstantiated claims people make are a bit much at times.
enoughisenough
Roar Rookie
CLL, Cooper and Toomua definitely better than Foley. Stewart from Qld arguably better as well. O'Connor possibly better. Of course Stewart is not proven at International level yet, Foley however has proven to be a failure at international level, only in the side because of rampant favouritism.
Drew
Roar Rookie
I'm assuming CLL is one of your 10's ahead of Foley, but who are the 3 other better International quality 10's Australia has? ... or are you just making a hyperbolic statement like some people seem to on these forums?
Drew
Roar Rookie
I agree with regards to the short passing/sniping game working well against the rush defence, though I also thought Genia’s box kicks were on the money. I don’t see why Genia couldn’t have executed similar though (tight game). I feel it’s our game plan not necessarily the players that also needs to evolve better to other teams. I also wouldn’t mind seeing us be a little more pragmatic at times and play for territory. DHP has a decent boot, let him get us down field.
Drew
Roar Rookie
Ruckin Oaf, whilst those stats are interesting and there is no denying that he was a good player, especially in that period up to 2011, I’m not sure what they really prove? Parallel universe where we could swap Cooper in for Foley into the same teams and games.. who knows, but then games arn’t often won or loss by just one player as much as the 10’s get a lot of focus (just look how the Rebels ended up going). I think at the end of the day we are talking about where the two were sitting at the end of the 2019 Super Rugby season and unfortuately for Cooper I don’t think he’d shown enough, consistently enough, to force his way back into the RWC squad.
Ruckin Oaf
Guest
Test winning percentage from ESPN Cooper 60.71 Foley 48.59
joeb
Roar Rookie
“Moreover, for now anyway, Michael Cheika has solved his No.10 problem with Matt Toomua providing the answer with a dominating performance.” Yes, but he was only on the field for the last 36 minutes. For mine he’s more effective off the bench, so we’d do better to stick with the Genia-Foley combo at kick-off. See how we go against Uruguay… These Wallabies can still go a long way in this tourney, :happy:
Hunters
Roar Rookie
And have members of the team contacted you to find out what they should think?
Hunters
Roar Rookie
Back to my previous comment. I'm sure your opinion is correct. Just ask you.
Zado
Guest
Sefa is not a Cheika favourite.
Azza
Guest
Funny how Beale was ranked number one for missed the most tackles in Super Rugby and Foley was at 5 for the most missed tackles yet Cheika loves them and fans and Fox Rugby commentators still worship them. The Fox commentary team of Hoiles Mitchell Horan Kafer Kearns never say a bad word about them.Gregan just fence sits. Fox Rugby Guest Pommy test player commentator /panelist Stu Barnes is the only one who tells it how it is, he is breath of fresh air ( even for a Pommy ) He actually said Foley is not the " iceman " before the game against the Welsh as he stated if he was the " iceman" he would be starting every game this year at 10. And look what happened. Foley another shocker !
Rhyno
Roar Rookie
Hang in there - it's a marathon, not a sprint.
Zado
Guest
Indeed KCOL if Quade had that pack to work with im convinced Kerevi DHP Koro etc etc would have scored tries and we would have won that game. But we had Foley throwing one intercept whilst hard on attack and dropping another one cold hard on attack.Offering nothing to his outside men. He also threw a pass to no one that Kerevi had to clean up on his goal line. Plus the missed tackles missed goalkicks and shovelling the hospital passes onto Kerevi . Question: What is he good for? What value does he bring ? What strengths?Seriously. Can anyone tell me ? Anyone?
Chris
Guest
Naaaaah Hooper is the worst 7 for a tier 1 team of the modern era.He avoids doing the tough stuff with the big boys as he is always manhandled and ragdolled at the ruck .It happened so many times against the Welsh i laughed He also tackles alot as he cant get the ball back as he is useless at pilfering or getting a turnover penalty. Way too small for a international 7. He makes alot of run meters as he always takes the kick offs .How about he gives it to someone else to carry back. We wont win the big games with him at number 7 and we keep continue losing with him at 7.He is the one constant that prevents us from being a good team.
Jamie
Guest
Dempsey powerful and tall.? He is weak as water. Soft as a marshmallow. Made of Glass. Overated Cheika pick. No way he should be in the 23.
Sage
Roar Rookie
Yes yes Rhyno, of course you are. Your positivity for Chieka and the WB’s is evident in all your posts. “Give him time” – after 5 years. Very heartfelt and genuine advice to be sure
Slag
Guest
Spiro, good analysis as usual. Your article some time ago about Cheika being a heart coach rather than a head coach is apt once again. Cheika runs high on emotion and low on analysis and strategic and tactical planning. He gets aroused by the energy and comaraderie of training basing too many of his selection decisions on what he is feeling in that environment. He is also displays an unfortunate arrogance on how the game should be played (his subjective feelings) with little analysis of the opposition (on his own admission). Other ‘head’ coaches regularly play him off a break and relish in his lack of insight and tactical preparation and planning. Unfortunately, the players are the ones that are suffering. The lack of analysis and insightful planning in both selecting the team and game tactics being at the heart of many failures. There is no doubt the players are putting in and working hard both on and off the field but are going into battle with out an artful general. Cheika needs to understand that there is a difference between being passionate and committed (which he undoubtedly is) and having the tactical nous and composed temperament to properly prepare the re is no conspiracy and fans do not question his loyalty and effort it is the smarts he lacks - buried under emotion. How many players has Cheika developed in the last 4 years? Essentially nil. The teams players in the leadership group I believe have the experience and should take over - dispense with Cheika and Gray and get on with winning a few decent games.
Rhyno
Roar Rookie
Sage - to the contrary, I am actually partial to Cheika's passion and heart on sleeve approach.
Greysy
Roar Rookie
You really can't let this one go OJ. Hooper's record as captain isn't stellar but nothing he did against Wales was poor in that regard. And not only did he play quite well, the back row was not really an area that contributed to the loss.
Drew
Roar Rookie
Hence why we'd had liked it to be looked at with one of those multiple cameras they have. I've seen some stills from what looks to be the spidercam footage from the ITV broadcast doing the rounds which seem to show him onside, even allowing for the distortion from the wideangle, but without all the frames it's hard to say conclusively. Wouldn't have been hard to just show us side on. I think I said elsewhere I'm waiting for the promised future where I can just choose my own camera to look at :)