Ireland vs New Zealand: Betting against the greenback

Typhoon allowing, this looks like being the quarter-final neither Ireland nor New Zealand probably really wanted.

But the rest of us can lick our lips in anticipation. They say in finance that you should never bet against the greenback. Whichever of Ireland or New Zealand is your idea of the greenback, but unless you’re tipping a draw, you’re going to have to do the unthinkable.

A rugby truism is that forwards win games but backs decide by how much. It’s hard to separate the two sides in the battle up front. The scrum looks evenly matched, but Ireland have something of an advantage, in part because of the excellent Tadhg Furlong. The newer New Zealand props look a little vulnerable to me on the loosehead side, and in the November 2018 match Ireland were able to put a lot of pressure on New Zealand at scrum time, a good example coming at about 25 minutes in.

The lineout is likely to be similarly tight. Ireland will point to their own lineout ball efficiency, and they may have the edge in terms of the reliability of their lineout throwing. However, New Zealand have a superb defensive lineout, with Kieran Read, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock, and one can easily imagine a defensive steal turning a tight match. The power of this trio at scrum time is also important.

So perhaps it’s a slight advantage to Ireland at the set piece, but the New Zealand defensive lineout is a thing to break hearts and make a not-so-happy hooker.

(Phil Walter/Getty Images)

In the loose, the return of Retallick and Read strikes me as significant. Both looked below par in the November 2018 loss to Ireland after a draining match against England. Whilst Retallick will lack match fitness, he will be fresh. Retallick and Read in form lift decision-making, workload and power in the loose, giving a dimension to the New Zealand pack that is crucial post-Jerome Kaino. New Zealand have not managed to replace Kaino. Kaino created time and space for his inside backs in both defence and attack.

Ireland’s forwards are organised, brutal and efficient and don’t concede much to NZ. Christiaan Stander’s form for Ireland has been a little off this Rugby World Cup, but if he lifts, New Zealand’s inside backs will be under pressure.

Last November New Zealand missed the brutal defensive efficiency of Sam Cane, so his return is a major plus, especially combined with the dynamism of Ardie Savea. Until recently Savea’s work rate and power were often underestimated. I don’t think there is a player like him in world rugby. In the loose, with the positive changes from last November, I think New Zealand can produce some key moments of dominance in what will otherwise be a brutal and fascinating battle. If they can do this, it will take New Zealand a long way closer to a win.

(AP/Peter Morrison)

Turning to the wider game, New Zealand’s developing game plan ‘Bea’unga’, symbolised by the selection of both Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga, offers a point of difference over the All Blacks’ recent games against Ireland. My initial take on Bea’unga was that it was essentially a failure of selection dressed up as a game plan.

There was always going to be a question about how they would work together. Early outings seemed to indicate problems as well as benefits, but the combination appears to have settled down – a testament to the players’ ability to put aside their egos for the team? – and one way or another it appears Bea’unga is part of New Zealand evolving a new way of playing.

As such, it appears to be about moving the focus away from areas where they have relative lack of dominance – brutal forward battles and the rush defence, which turns the game into an attritional contest – and shifting it to an area where New Zealand continue to have a significant advantage, namely the ability to rapidly counter-punch, as per their pool match against South Africa. I see Bea’unga as having the potential to be a point of difference that enables New Zealand to evade death by suffocation.

Both sides have strong defences in terms of the initial collisions and in the subsequent ruck/maul contests. Both cover breaks in the line with considerable efficiency, although I have been really impressed by the speed in cover of both Barrett and George Bridge, and I think New Zealand have a slight edge there.

NZ have some vulnerability in close to the ruck but have shown they can close that down, as shown in the 2019 drubbing of Australia, who showed Yes, Minister-type courage in attempting to replicate the Perth tactics in Auckland, and against Argentina in 2017, when Argentina really took things to them in the first half. It is never wise to expect that New Zealand will not adapt to you repeatedly striking at a particular weaker point.

Referees can play a big role in tight games – the third Lions vs New Zealand Test in 2017 being just one example. I have read that New Zealand sides have had an upward trend in yellow cards since 2016. However, at this tournament it seems that New Zealand have gone on a charm offensive, and it’s hard not to feel that it may have yielded some results.

Ireland have had some issues, and the public complaints about the officiating by Ireland after their loss to Japan have probably not greatly helped them. I generally think that complaining about the officiating after a match is a bit like politicians complaining about media treatment – whatever the merits, it rarely improves the way they are treated.

(Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Refereeing gripes may reflect a side whose game plans have not kept up with changes in rules and interpretations, which may be an issue for Ireland. Much better to do your talking pre-game and keep your criticisms for behind the scenes post-game. If you feel you are getting treated harshly, you may need to look at why and find out from the officials what their perceptions are about how you are playing.

I don’t see much separating the sides in terms of leadership. Both are highly disciplined and smart in their approach to pushing the limits of the referee. My sense is that New Zealand do have more capacity to vary their game if plan A is not working, which is largely about the leadership of both the captain and key players.

However, I don’t see the current side as having the leadership across the park of the great side of circa 2011-16. Against the Lions in 2017, against South Africa several times recently, against Ireland in Chicago and a few times against Australia, notably in Brisbane in 2017 and Perth in 2019, New Zealand have struggled to adapt to referee interpretations and to sides that have managed to work into the very few New Zealand frailties.

Ireland have also struggled to adapt this year, partly because of injuries and perhaps because teams are getting more familiar with their style.

Both sides can play tight, grinding, territorial rugby if conditions create a slippery ball. Both have excellent kicking games and more than one good kicker. Both chase very efficiently and can use the kick as an offensive weapon. Dry, hard conditions would probably favour New Zealand, but their handling generally is not as variable as, say, Australia’s when the ball gets slippery. High heat and humidity won’t help Ireland who, like Wales, have wilted a bit in the last 20 to 30 minutes, even with reserves coming on. I suspect New Zealand will feel that, if they can hold Ireland, they can put on points late in the game.

Considering the above, New Zealand is more likely to win despite Ireland having a very good recent record against them. If Ireland get everything pretty much right and have one or two breaks go their way – like Read’s knock-on with the try line calling in November 2018 – they are a good enough side to win.

New Zealand will need their forwards to put in a very big shift to create at least some moments of time and space for their inside backs, something they struggled to do in the recent losses but managed in wins. That is the thing with New Zealand – you just need to be slightly off once or twice in a game and they can break you open.

Watching the All Blacks reminds me of watching the great West Indies or Australian cricket teams of days gone by, or of the Tour de France stars – they can smell a moment of weakness and find the extra gear to exploit it. That is why anyone who loves the game of rugby more than they love a particular team should love watching New Zealand in rugby.

My bet is on the top currency in international rugby – like its counterpart, it may not be what it used to be, but it is still a beast.