In 2003 England won the Rugby World Cup after building a team of players who are now looked back on as legends of the game.
The average age was so high compared with the other teams that there was active mockery and the team was labelled ‘dad’s army’. There was a strong body of opinion that the young men would run them off their feet, but England had taken the time to build a very experienced base, a formula that some now use as a major indicator of predicting tournament success.
They had also laid a mental foundation by beating every team they could meet at the tournament in the years before it, and they were clearly the best team contesting the World Cup.
After the triumphs of 2003 the core of that team retired and immediately the wheels fell off. They lost to Ireland at fortress Twickenham and then away to France. Their end-of-year tour to New Zealand had them thrashed 36-3 then 36-12 in successive weekends, and Australia put 51 points on them in Brisbane.
In 2005 the world champions lost to Wales, France, Ireland and New Zealand but managed one ten-point home victory over Australia.
The lesson of experience was double-edge. As much as you needed buckets of it to win a World Cup, if you didn’t put in the same level of effort into succession planning, the years immediately following a tournament win could become seriously embarrassing.
One of the key problems in building a large experienced base to win a World Cup is there are not enough Tests played between one World Cup and the next to do it in a single cycle. If one were to start with a very low base of Test caps, you would need eight years – two World Cups – to do it. Given injuries and the general wear and tear on player bodies, eight years is a long run-up time for an experience peak and 12 years is the outer edge of what is physically possible.
(David Rogers/Getty Images)
New Zealand is the first country to have won two world cups in a row. There was some hope for a third. Before the weekend’s semi-final there was a lot of enthusiasm for New Zealand, a lot of people saying the All Blacks were favourites and a few predicting a 20-point black wash.
But a few were not so sure. Nick Bishops picked England for the win, so the cooler heads were out there. New Zealand were not really hot favourites – the field was so open it’s hard to say if there was anyone who was hot. New Zealand weren’t even No. 1 in the rankings, which chopped and changed because things had really tightened up.
Back in the 2015 Rugby World Cup New Zealand lost a big part of its experienced core but managed to retain some key players. For the All Blacks the cycle was about trying to keep that older core in good condition, getting caps into the younger players while at the same time finding ways around the fast-improving defences.
It is of course much easier to train hard defences than high-quality attacks. Fewer skills are required and you can do it through training patterns and improving fitness levels. Had New Zealand’s focus been solely on the Rugby World Cup, it might have been a pragmatic choice to focus on defence for any three-peat, knowing that the experience base was low, that the risk of injury to the key experience base would be higher, that attack takes longer to train than defence and that time was short.
It’s a great thing for world rugby that New Zealand did not go down the conservative defensive route. We must always remember that the game is an entertainment business, which almost by definition requires good guys, bad guys and as much drama as you can get, with twists and turns aplenty. The more drama and actors you can bake in, the more sizzle your product has.
The All Blacks remain one of the great dramatic actors of our game. When they win there is drama. When they lose there is drama. Regardless of whether they play the part of the hero or the villain in your narrative, one thing they extract more often than not is emotional commitment. It’s important that the ABs remain as they are.
(David Rogers/Getty Images)
One of the big benefits of high experience is that a team can get slowly better at the hardest things, and there are few things harder in elite sport than backing up one big performance with another. In 2015 New Zealand came in with a chip on their shoulder about the quarter-final defeat to France in 2007. With that as the backdrop, they absolutely smashed France in a 62-point routing in their quarter-final. The mental focus from the All Blacks was very high that day.
But the following match was not like that, and in the semi-final against the Springboks they didn’t reach such a high mental peak and won the game by only two points. They again looked relaxed in the final, but the pattern seems clear to me. If a World Cup boils down to three big matches against tier-one competition, there is very likely to be one ‘flat’ game. When concentration levels are simply lower, the rub of the green seems to go against you and only every second thing you do comes off. When it just isn’t your day your experience enables you to ‘win ugly’.
The other thing about knockout tournaments of any kind are that you need a bit of luck. At the outset of this tournament England had the worst draw, having to defeat five tier-one nations to win it. But as Lady Luck would have it, Argentina was gifted to them with a red card and France was washed out by Japan’s biggest typhoon in 60 years. Suddenly five became three and their climb was no worse than anyone else’s. Sometimes the cards fall different to what you expect and by no fault of your own a gap in the traffic appears (or closes).
Because of the mental energy required to beat New Zealand, the final won’t be as open as many think. There is a long history of teams beating New Zealand only to lose their next match looking very flat. England will probably have to win ugly if they are to win.
So in the midst of the waves of emotion that follow All Blacks losses, I am not depressed. I had estimated the boys were in with a fair shot, maybe 35 per cent to win it all. But in reality I always knew a three-peat was going to be extremely difficult and the rugby gods would have to smile for us to pull it off.
Many had commented that this team was not the same as the 2015 team. It wasn’t. It couldn’t be. And the luck didn’t fall our way. So on a damp day in Japan we couldn’t quite win the collisions, couldn’t quite get the read on their lineout that we needed and couldn’t play quite enough rugby at the correct end of the paddock. We were mentally flat and we didn’t have enough of that experience to pull it in, grind it out and win ugly.
But it was very entertaining, and let’s not forget that’s what we’re selling.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Ha ha, we sometimes come good.
Rhyno
Roar Rookie
Ralph - great article. Top four is bearable as a minimum KPi and the Abs ticked that. We’ve won 90% of games over a decade, an excellent stretch of success. Time for a new crop to get the cup back in 2023 and farewell to the greats Shag and Reado.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Thanks Ralph, very good ... for a Cantab :silly:
Charging Rhino
Roar Guru
Nice one well Ralph and good on you mate. I guess that's the thing, it's a lot easier to digest when your team has been comprehensively outplayed and you know that the opposition were better and deserved to win. It's those tight losses when you feel that your team has played better which are harder to swallow! Three big rugby ones stick out for me: 1) 1999 - SA loss to Wallabies in the semi's (and actually in the cricket too.... loss to Australia which makes this list 4) 2) 2007 - Sharks loss to the Bulls 3) 2011 - SA loss to the Wallabies in the QF Now to think that I married an Aussie, and then moved to Australia, my kids were born here, so need to support all the Australian teams too (which I do)... initially a hard task after all that hurt and those vivid memories of losses!
Ralph
Roar Guru
Well I don't agree with almost any of that, a bit too much hyperbole for me. But it all brings flavour, so thanks for commenting.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
:silly: Nice piece Ralph, even if you are Cantab fan It’s quite weird but many of my Aussie mates and even non Aussies were ribbing me over the loss of the All Blacks last week. Frankly I laughed it off and went about life. Disappointed, no doubt, devastated, absolutely not. I thought may I should have been but I wasn’t .. why not? I guess firstly, while I was hoping for a win, I had always looked upon England as a serious threat and had mentioned that several times on this platform. I was looking for a good game and I got it. A beaut in which England clearly outplayed the All Blacks and deserved their win. They were by far the better team of the day, watch a replay, read a thousand articles .... moved on. Secondly I had experienced many losses that the AB’s suffered over the years, while many of the ‘younger or more recent converts’ were perhaps too used to the AB’s winning. The losses chalked up in more recent years v Wallabies (2019) ; Boks (2018) ; Ireland (2018) ; B&Irish Lions (2017), throw in a couple of draws and moving into KO matches, I think you get the drift. I was at everyone of those losses except the one against the Wallabies in Perth due to a prior engagement. Thirdly I have had the good fortune to have experienced 4 Rugby World Cups tournaments live, including two of the three All Black wins and two losses including the 2007 loss in Cardiff, I can tell you, that one hurt as we were ‘conditioned to believe Henry would deliver’ but having experienced that and the fact I was not in Japan perhaps emotions were unwittingly tempered. It’s the same as the losing All Blacks, after their meaningless game in Friday, they will return home. Those older ones about to move on or retire will walk into their trophy room and among the collection of memories will be one of even two RWC medals! Outside of the immediate pain they felt after the game, in the light of day, it can not be all that bad. For the younger All Blacks they had the experience of a lifetime and if they are fortunate enough, the may get a second crack.
SD
Guest
Yes.
Jacko
Guest
Funbus I dont expect the bottom to fall out but i do think 87% is a hard thing to maintain....Yeah agree that the ABs average can be very good but I also see a lack of the absolute best players like the B Barretts and the Smiths ( Both ) coming thru...Plenty of fantastic talent but NZ is not quite the rugby nation it has been in the past......The younger generations are not taking it up like they once used to and that is starting to show in the Junior results from the last few years....Maybe a 70-75% is more realistic in the future.....And Im over the constant Odds-on the ABs always sem to be no matter whether they have won or lost.....Im over 55s and Ive seen a lot of rugby and I just feel priveledged to have seen the ABs dominate world rugby for a long period....But it ends eventually and the rest catch up or a generation of stars comes to an end........I have loved the journey but still remember the darker times for what they were.....Hopefully its not back to those but no one cant expect this reign to go forever
Jacko
Guest
No one would have been the Golden Bullet......The ABs have played fantastic rugby for the past 12 years.....All things must come to an end some time and England deserved to win....I am very proud of the way the ABs have played rugby under hansen and altho I would of course prefer to be still alive for the title im happy to accept the defeat and move on knowing that I have seen Hansen and his team play some of the best rugby the world has seen....Is it the changing of the guard? possably....These things come in cycles and maybe its Englands time in the sun.....Well done to the ABs for the last 12 years and perhaps its now time to rebuild and hope another golden era comes our way again soon.....i have been an ABs fan in some dark times and some golden times...And have somehow managed to get many positives out of both....
Faithful
Roar Rookie
Just to add more colour to test caps (yes - some spare moments in my lunch time ). ## NZ ## Starting-Total Caps 751 15 Beauden Barrett 82 14 Sevu Reece 7 13 Jack Goodhue 11 12 Anton Lienert-Brown 40 11 George Bridge 7 10 Richie Mo’unga 14 9 Aaron Smith 89 8 Kieran Read (c) 124 7 Ardie Savea 37 6 Scott Barrett 34 5 Sam Whitelock 115 4 Brodie Retallick 78 3 Nepo Laulala 22 2 Codie Taylor 48 1 Joe Moody 43 Bench-Total 334 16 Dane Coles 67 17 Ofa Tuungafasi 33 18 Angus Ta'avao 11 19 Patrick Tuipulotu 28 20 Sam Cane 65 21 TJ Perenara 62 22 Sonny Bill Williams 55 23 Jordie Barrett 13 ## England ## Starting-Total Caps 672 15 Elliot Daly 33 14 Anthony Watson 36 13 Manu Tuilagi 35 12 Owen Farrell (c) 73 11 Jonny May 47 10 George Ford 59 9 Ben Youngs 89 8 Billy Vunipola 54 7 Sam Underhill 40 6 Tom Curry 25 5 Courtney Lawes 75 4 Maro Itoje 29 3 Kyle Sinckler 13 2 Jamie George 10 1 Mako Vunipola 54 Bench-Total 284 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie 15 17 Joe Marler 62 18 Dan Cole 89 19 George Kruis 35 20 Mark Wilson 15 21 Willi Heinz 4 22 Henry Slade 22 23 Jonathan Joseph 42
scrum
Roar Rookie
What was surprising was not that England won- well even then a bit surprising- but the manner in which they won. ABs were totally dominated from go to whoa and never in the the game. The score really flattered the ABs . Even in the dying stages when Heinz executed some poor box kicks to give good possession to the ABs they could not mount any coherent attack. Totally defeated and in fact so defeated the Kiwi public could not go to their standard refrain of blaming the Referee- it was so obvious that England were so superior any argument to the contrary would be laughable. And who would have predicted this- I doubt even Eddie Jones anticipated such a complete and overwhelming victory. I feel for Hansen who has been such an outstanding coach and positive ambassador for the game- he deserved a better finale but sport can be cruel.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Very good article mate. England stormed out of the blocks against a sluggish All Black side and never let up. Their forwards won this for them, despite a fortuitous try from Tuilagi. Itoje, Curry and Underhill were superb in defense and at the break-down. Multiple turnovers and outstanding carries through the gain line. The All Blacks were on the back foot, unable to secure quick ball and their halves nullified. Smith and Barrett kicked poorly, often gifting possession back to the English. I was surprised that they made so little impact in the second half and our bench made little impact too. The turnover at the 62nd minute was a death knell backed up by Whitelock's innocuous push on Farrell resulting in a penalty reversal a few minutes later. England were the better team man-for-man and thoroughly deserve their final and the plaudits such a fine victory will garner. If we're honest this is a good result for the game even though both finalists have a title already. As to the All Blacks: a new coach and some new personnel. Some new ideas. It's hard to get excited now but the All Blacks will be back and they will excite. They're the All Blacks...
Machooka
Roar Guru
Thanks Ralph... very measured and balanced read. Enjoyed it! :happy:
Ralph
Roar Guru
Thanks.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Perspective is the word. I have lived through 400 earthquakes, a massive fire that came within one house of us but destroyed four neighbours homes, a moron who came into our city and killed 51 people and today my wife was told her aunt has aggressive stomach cancer and has just weeks to live. This was just a rugby game and nobody died. It was wonderfully entertaining, emotionally draining and a distraction from the ills of the world. But just a rugby game.
Jonesy
Roar Rookie
Mo’unga is not test quality? Which team/s would he fail to make? I would have him in a heartbeat for the wallabies (maybe not saying much with our current depth at 10!)
Ralph
Roar Guru
Lady Luck certainly aligned for England - but you still have to turn up and do the business don't you. So full credit to them.
Ralph
Roar Guru
Rugby is a game of momentum and sometimes a dozen little things just don't bounce your way. England played most of that game wonderfully and deserved to win. We were flat. In the end, the reasons don't matter, the result stands and the best team on that day won. Well done them.
rebel
Roar Guru
"it’s disaster and national mourning for them if they don’t win it." Well considering they have actually been through both in recent years, I think you underestimate the country's perspective. As for the Herald front page, you realise this was just a take off of a front page in New Orleans after the superbowl loss.
Ralph
Roar Guru
It's an exciting time for international rugby.