JT is by far the best NRL player of the 2010s

By ScottWoodward.me / Roar Guru

Johnathan Thurston is the stand out best rugby league player in the last decade based on my data.

To minimise any arguments, I have defined ‘best player’ as the player with the highest rating in my talent identification program, which in simple terms would command the highest salary today.

These players have the biggest influence directly and indirectly on the scoreboard, and if they were withdrawn prior to kick-off, would have the biggest influence on the line.

When a player is withdrawn most have zero impact on the game’s line, but JT’s value would exceed a converted try – quite remarkable!

The only player to come close to Thurston’s rating is Andrew Johns, but as we know he wasn’t around for the past decade.

Top ten players in the 2010s:

1. Johnathan Thurston
2. Cam Smith
3. Luke Keary
4. Tom Trbojevic
5. James Tedesco
6. Kalyn Ponga
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Greg Inglis
9. Billy Slater
10. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

Each one of these players is a ‘spine’ player and has a major scoreboard influence.

Keary is yet to play Origin but he has been key in three grand final wins in the past six years, his data is superior to Cooper Cronk’s, who would make most top-ten lists and is a personal favourite.

With some teams the impact of a key out can sometimes be offset somewhat by a high-class replacement, most of the top ten were close to irreplaceable and their teams struggled when missing.

The highest-rated forwards to play NRL in the last decade are:

Jason Taumalolo
Payne Haas
Sonny Bill Williams
Sam Burgess
David Fifita

Analytically, Taumalolo re-wrote what a forward can do. His data is off the charts and is a must buy for every Super Coach. I did not expect to see the likes of him again in my lifetime and then Haas turned up. His data suggests he could retire as the greatest big forward ever.

There was never much between SBW and Burgess when they played against each other, and they are both directly responsible for grand final wins for the Roosters and the Rabbitohs respectively.

If you would like to include a coaches rating on forwards, the majority I have spoken to have plumped for Burgess. Taumalolo and Haas have fewer negatives, but we do not have a fear-factor analytic.

Other highly influential players include Robbie Farah and his teammate Benji Marshall, who Arthur Summons said “changed the game”; the same could be argued for Jarryd Hayne and Shaun Johnson, both freakish in open space.

Damien Cook’s data is higher than Cam Smith’s at the same stage and he set new Super Coach benchmarks, also Semi Radradra has claims as the best-ever winger, and how can we ever forget the controversial Izzy Folau, Latrell Mitchell and Val Holmes?

It’s been quite a decade of rugby league, can’t wait for the next ten years.

The Crowd Says:

2020-01-07T02:07:36+00:00

Rob

Guest


“You don’t know what your talking about”. Is that how respond to someone that doesn’t agree with your opinion? I respect you view things differently than myself. I have outlined the difference between 56% win ratio (JT) compared to 71%. I have pointed out a player with 52% wins ( Pearce) was replaced by the 71% (Cronk) and the Roosters won back to back premierships. Thurston was a wonderfully instinctive player who followed the ball and could sniff out an opportunity. Put JT around good players and he was in his element. He wasn’t great at getting his team out of trouble through game management. JT wasn’t a good defender, had a very average long kicking game, played on emotion that sometimes especially in finals caused him to over play his hand and your “cup a test” might be why he was made co Captain? Young Benji absolutely owned Thurston in the 2005 finals laying on 80 points to Thurstons 22? In fact the grand final turned when Thurston kicked the ball and Marshall completely brushed JT to then put his winger over with a flick pass going 90m. Thurston created no tries in the the 2015 Cowboys GF? His 2 errors with the boot lead to 7 tackle and penalties that resulted in 4 points for Brisbane? His error losing the football lead directly to the Broncos scoring. The Cowboys bashed their way down the field and Thurston touched the ball on 90% of last plays 80% on the left side which lead to a huge impact on TA stats. It lead to the Cowboys being predictable also. Morgan, Hess, O’neil and Feldt are vastly superior attacking players than Linnett, Coote, Cooper and Winterstien. Cronk has a 12-3 head to head over Thurston? Cronk has proven to be the most consistent and highest winning playmaker over the last decade and you don’t consider him in the top 10 MVP’s? I find this hard to understand. With out Inglis or Slater Souths and Storm probably don’t win a Premiership. Without Morgan the Cowboys don’t play in or win a Grand final? Yet JT achieves 1 top 4 and a GF in a decade with a team that has the talent to make a GF in his absence? Cronk and Munster absolutely brained NSW in the 2017 decider? The only time the all stars won was when Cronk played? I watch every game the Cowboys have ever played and I have a lot of experience at watching JT. He’s a great player just not the best by a long shot IMO.

AUTHOR

2020-01-05T22:10:38+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Hi Snoop, If I make a comment I will always be able to support it with compelling data. Please advise where you think I am wrong? fyi, I watch 30 games a week.

AUTHOR

2020-01-05T22:08:15+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Rob, With respect, you don't know what you are talking about mate. Firstly, you are never going to win the argument comparing Thurston with Cronk. Cronk played on the right side at the Storm and Roosters and the majority of tries were on the left in both teams. Cronk was right next to Proctor for most of his best years at the Storm and he was NOT a try scorer and neither was Will Chambers who played right Centre. JT could play on both sides just as well. He was a freak!

2020-01-05T08:37:38+00:00

Snoop Bloggy blog

Roar Rookie


There’s a lot of your comment that’s very wrong. You can’t have watched too much football.

2020-01-04T08:30:34+00:00

souvalis

Roar Rookie


‘Keary over the last 6 years has been superior ‘ let’s not forget Russell basically kicked Luke out of the club by telling him he wasn’t earning his salary, which was thought at the time to be a modest $400k..in interviews Keary admits he wasn’t playing well and rated James M. the more worthy Blue 6. Here we are 3 seasons later,James is still the Blues 6, Munster the Green and Gold 6, yet Keary , described one week by Seiboldt last season as ‘the five eight who made 4 meters and missed 5 tackles’, is ranked as 3rd best player in the NRL over the last 10 years..Freddie, Mal and Seibs must be using different analytics to you Scott. Keary is certainly a very good footballer but that’s it.

2020-01-04T02:28:57+00:00

Rob

Guest


If JT was that good why didn’t he have the Cowboys in the Top 4 or winning Premierships? I know JT played one side of the field but I didn’t realise Cronk only played one side? 3-1 Do you think Inglis and Slater running down the left edge was a factor? has Not once did a Cowboys outside back figure in the top top try scorers on the left side from my memory. Most tries Ferguson, Latrell, Ado Carr, Vunavalu, Topou, Tedesco, Slater have ever scored in a season has been playing with Cronk? Proctor, Harris, Neilson, Beau Champion are bog average NRL players but Cronk gave them plenty of ability. A lot of good halves struggled playing outside JT most did better outside Cronk IMO. If Cronk play behind the Cowboys forward pack over the last 10 years they Top 4 at least 6 out 10 times IMO.

AUTHOR

2020-01-03T10:58:54+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Rob, I would love to be your bookie.

AUTHOR

2020-01-03T10:55:50+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


Max, I could not have said it better myself Max, well said.

2020-01-03T08:03:59+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


By last season I mean 2017

2020-01-03T06:02:27+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


I'm with you souvalis. Not sure about Scott's rating system, but it seems a fair amount of subjective opining is built into it ? I think Cam Smith is the GOAT by a good margin, and not only the best of the past decade but of any decade. But then that is based on my rating system swayed by his unmatched records of personal and team based achievements at the highest levels with never a poor game over two decades. JT failed every time he went to Leichhardt Oval. And I could never have Keary in front of Teddy or Turbo and I suspect the values of their contracts would support that too. Not sure why Greg Inglis would warrant a spot in the top 10 of the past decade ? He was barely sighted for the past 5 years due to injury and associated form ? I would have had Cronk well ahead of him. How can you ignore his record of NRL & SOO achievement over the past decade ?

2020-01-03T03:24:45+00:00

Max P

Guest


Scott great article. JT was the master at manipulating defensive lines. His left side in origin out scored Cronks 3-1 and Cronk had the Smith, Slater combo putting a lot of their plays down his side. His read of the game was the best their has ever been. His ability to know what attackers were doing before they did is very underrated. No one is even close to him when it comes to covering attacking kicks and plugging holes in the defensive line. When he was micced up for a game you got to see how he constantly talks to his team mates. He might not have always been the strongest in contact but his effort and influence negate that entirely. Johns, Lewis and Smith are the only ones that come close. He’s the complete attacking package. Subtlety, nous, vision, ability and he could do it with whoever was around him. In Origin, Kangaroos, Indigenous all stars and club he dominated and put on more incredible clutch plays in a season than most great players do in their careers.

2020-01-03T00:19:35+00:00

Randy

Roar Rookie


While I agree that Ponga is being over hyped he is still only 21, you speak like he's at the end of his career or something...

2020-01-02T23:13:47+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


Manly challenged for the spoon last season but when they played the Storm who were missing Smith they won. It was the Storm who looked like wooden spooners. Smiths influence on games, his durability and longevity makes him easily the most valuable and therefore, best player, in this era. If he was at the Cows , no way would they only have one title.

AUTHOR

2020-01-02T20:54:33+00:00

ScottWoodward.me

Roar Guru


The word "best" is open to many interpretations. I welcome anyone's comments as everyone is entitled to their own mindshare. My comments were clearly defined what I meant by "best" and I set the parameters. With so many players to squeeze into just ten, it is impossible for all to agree. Added bonus in a player like leadership and great communication skills are highly valuable, but there is no analytic for it. Jonathan Thurston actually had all of those attributes, but it was his skill with the ball that made him number one.

2020-01-02T11:06:33+00:00

Rob

Guest


The worst season the Storm had in the last decade was finishing 8 in 2014 when Cronk missed 6 games after breaking his arm in Origin 1. The Storm won only 2 games with Smith and Slater holding the fort while he was injured. Queensland lost Origin 1 (8-12 )with JT missing both conversions? In game 2 Queensland failed to score a try with JT playing? In game 3 Cronk returns and Queensland win (32-8)? Cronk plays and wins 70% of games for both Melbourne and Roosters. Mitchell Pearce has a 52% win ratio playing for the roosters. Not once in Cronk’s career did he have a season <50%? JT had a 50% win in finals but Cronk won 71% with C.Smith winning 64%?

2020-01-02T09:54:15+00:00

Rob

Guest


JT is slow and if he was a racehorse he wouldn’t have run a race. Unfortunately trying hard doesn’t win if horses like Inglis, Tedesco or Slater show up in the field.

2020-01-02T07:08:23+00:00

Adam Bagnall

Roar Guru


His "data" was from 1 season out of the decade, that he used to exclude Cronk but JT had a terrible final season too.

2020-01-02T06:45:32+00:00

Rob

Guest


This is obviously Scott’s opinion based data? Not to throw shade on his algorithm but I certainly think defence, organisation, kicking meter or errors feature as highly as goal kicking and try assists? Thurston scored as many tries on average over his career as Cronk? Cronk averaged in the Top 3 for kick meters most years which helped his forwards gaining field position and created opportunities through pressure. JT would be lucky to finish in Top 10 in kick meters any season. The Quality of service and pass from Cronk often led to Melbourne and Roosters outside backs featuring in the top try scorers where as Feldt, O’neil struggled for good opportunities with JT? It would also be interesting to know the overall break down of points conceded by Teams with Cronk compared to those with JT?

2020-01-02T05:11:56+00:00

Bezza

Roar Rookie


Scott, when you say "if all players were on the market over the last 10 years, few if any, would command a higher bid than Ponga"...... are you referring to your top ten picks for the decade or just those few Roosters players you mentioned at the bottom of your comment above. I'm staggered! Can't believe anyone could make such a statement. Ponga's not worth, let's say, the sort of money commanded by Cronk , the last couple of years, Teddy, Keary and Mitchell. And there's something terribly wrong if you think he could draw the dollars that Smith, Thurston and Slater could. I know you say you have your theory and there's no right or wrong, but there's something terribly wrong when you make a statement like that, particularly as you haven't backed up your reasoning in regards to Ponga. Sorry mate but I think it's all hogwash.

2020-01-02T04:30:37+00:00

Bezza

Guest


Couldn't agree more! To my way of thinking, Ponga is on the downhill slide. I know many rate him highly but I can't justify his performances enough to warrant all the hoo-ha. As someone mentioned earlier, he seems to rest on his reputation rather than play like a rising star. I can't help but wonder if he would have done better at another team, with a much stronger coach keeping his ego in check. I really think he'd have achieved much more being mentored by the likes of Bellamy, Robinson or even Maguire - a coach with a strong work ethic and the ability to mould his game. As it is, he turns up for 15 minutes then he's off with the fairies for pretty much the rest of the game. No, definitely doesn't belong up with the best. You need to earn that right.

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