Securing a 3-0 series win over New Zealand at the SCG will put Australia in prime position to qualify for a likely Lord’s showdown with India in the World Test Championship final next year.
The advent of the WTC means there is no such thing as a dead rubber because the third Test in this trans-Tasman contest is worth as many championship points as the first two live matches.
The WTC table is separate to the ICC Test rankings. Australia have already earned the No.2 spot on the ICC Test rankings, which will be updated at the end of this series against New Zealand.
Meanwhile, if they win at Sydney, Australia will move to 296 championship points, a long way ahead of the next highest-ranked sides on the WTC table – Pakistan (80) and Sri Lanka (80) – and behind only India (360 points).
(AAP Image/Scott Barbour)
India have one foot in the WTC final already, with 360 points from seven straight wins, leaving the likes of New Zealand (60 points from four Tests), England (56 points from six Tests) and South Africa (30 points from four Tests) miles behind.
To put that into context, even if England fight back to win the final three Tests of their current series in South Africa, they would still only have 146 WTC points, trailing Australia by an enormous margin.
Although the WTC will be decided only by a one-off Test, not a series, the prospect of Australia and India facing off at Lord’s is mouth-watering. What a spectacle it would be for the world’s two best pace attacks to go head to head at the home of cricket with the swinging, seaming Dukes ball.
Following this contest against New Zealand, Australia will have either three or four more Test series to qualify for the WTC final depending on whether their one-off Test against Afghanistan goes ahead later this year. The three series that are locked in for Australia over that period are a two-match contest in Bangladesh, four Tests at home against India next summer and a three-match series in South Africa early next year.
Those final two series will give us a very clear image of just how much this Australian side has progressed since the disastrous 2018 tour of South Africa.
If Australia beat New Zealand at the SCG, they will need to win only four of those following nine Tests to be all but certain of qualification for the WTC final. For example, a 1-1 draw in Bangladesh, 2-2 draw at home against India and a 1-2 loss in South Africa would very likely suffice.
That also underscores just how crucial this Sydney Test is to Australia’s hopes of making the WTC final. On home soil against a wounded opponent, Australia are heavy favourites. New Zealand’s best chance of rebounding is to win the toss and bat first, something they should have done at the MCG when skipper Kane Williamson made the fatal mistake of opting to bowl.
For all the focus on the state of the MCG pitch in recent years, the SCG has been the flattest Test surface in Australia for some time now.
Last year India piled up 622, the year before Australia churned out 649, the previous summer Australia made 538, the year prior David Warner was 122 not out from 103 balls when the match was abandoned and the year before that Australia made 572 and India replied with 475.
If New Zealand have to bowl first, without Trent Boult and possessing no proven spinner, it is hard to see how the in-form Australian line-up won’t bat them out of the Test. The Kiwis have to bat first, survive Australia’s new ball onslaught and then put the home side under scoreboard pressure, something they have not handled well in recent years.
Otherwise Australia will canter to a 3-0 win and go one step closer to a potential blockbuster WTC final against India at Lord’s next year.
Jacko
Guest
It was a solid series win, shoulda been 3-1. The 1 they lost was comprehensive though. Let’s also not forget that Australia was without Smith or The Bus Change, and the Aussie bowling attack has matured nicely since too. VERY difficult to see 3-1 happening again, let alone a 4-0 “walloping”. In fact, I think the only place the Aussies lose to India is in India. I’m tipping the bookies would have Aussies as faves to win at Lord’s (if that ends up as the final)...
Matt Smith
Roar Rookie
I am not sure about that. SA tour of india, indian pacers comfortably outbolwed their sa counterparts without their spearhead jasprit bhumrah. Actualy indian quicks have the best strike rates and averages for 2019.
Paul
Roar Guru
yep, I can see why you've have written such a ridiculous comment, obviously because you didn't read what I wrote, so I'll copy it again. "If India wallops us 4 nil, which they’re quite capable of doing with their current team". The recent "hard fought series" against India should have been a 3-1 series win to them, only rain saving us from that humiliation in Sydney. Or have you forgotten that?
Mitcher
Guest
The suggestion India will (hysteria alert) “wallop” Australia 4-0 in Australia is thoroughly comical. Completely disregarding the hard fought very recent series minus smith etc. India may well win the series. Geez their attack is quality. But this ‘walloping’ is hilarious.
Tanmoy Kar
Roar Rookie
In the WTC there could have been four Qualifiers for Semi-finals and Final to make the League stage more competitive.
anon
Roar Pro
We’ll smash India at Lords
Paul
Roar Guru
Look at what's happened to the Black Caps Dwayne. They came here with a fit, confident squad, number two in the Test rankings and expected to give us a real contest. Right now, their down at least 5 and perhaps 6 players if Lockie Ferguson is included and are staring at a walloping. Australia has a good solid lineup that clearly plays well at home - but what happens if guys lose form or are injured? We have some good replacements for the quicks, but no-one to replace the GOAT, no-one in good enough form to replace the openers or anyone in the top 6 for that matter. I don't think it will end up as a 4 nil Indian series win by any means, but I think we could easily be in big trouble if injuries mount up or poor form kicks in.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
They are not there yet. There is no Shield cricket at the moment. There are many young Aussies on the way. Burns and Wade need to lift if they want to count on selection. You will see these performers when there are Shield games to perform in. Our selectors won't select a team to play India before watching the Australian summer. They are savvy in that way.
Paul
Roar Guru
Better performers, eh? Just who are these better performers Don? There certainly aren't any contenders in Shield cricket this year
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
I understand what you saying Paul, Anything can happen, but it a series. ‘...could easier run through us’, maybe not easily the right word, to ‘run’ Through us the whole series, the ‘whole’ batting team, then our bowling unit not perform the whole series, at home. I’m not sure. It more like ‘ win some big money from book makers cause of the odds ‘. India beat us 2-1 in 4 tests last last. Aust with a definite weaker batting unit, India the ‘only’ time they ever win a series here. Yes anything is possible. But too many variables. I think it may also be important, as how the teams are going at time of the event (if it is these two), teams performances/history at the ground. Australia have a history of doing ok there.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Yes Tanmoy Kar.. I am switched off to the default final being at Lords...why??money of course.. Cricket capitalism ruling the roost. Surely as in all sports with a log /league system the team finishing on top earns a home final.
Just Nuisance
Roar Rookie
Worlds 2 best pace attacks? I am certain that the SA boys may disagree. With Ngidi soon returning from injury a South African line up of Rabada, Ngidi, Philander and the hugely impressive newcomer Nortje will try and prove that statement false.
KenoathCarnt
Roar Rookie
That is so awesome that its played in Lords would be very hard going to India.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
No one gives Smith much trouble. When Smith gets out, he gets himself out. His dismissals against NZ have been to bad balls.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Has Indian attack given Smith much trouble in past, home and away?
Carey
Roar Rookie
Depends whether we start at the Gabbatoir or not. Gabba Perth MCG SCG Australia win 2-1.
Carey
Roar Rookie
The qualifying system does not seem confusing to me - 120 points are on offer in any series. For example, in a 2-test series each test is worth 60 points, while in a 5 test series each test is only worth 24 points. A winning team gets all the points, but in the event of a draw each team only gets one-third of the points (eg the drawn test in the Ashes netted each team 8 points each). In the unlikely event of a tie each team gets half the points. Every team plays six series, and at the end of it all the top two teams play off. In the event of teams being equal on points, runs-per-wicket percentage is the tie breaker (runs-per-wicket for divided by runs-per-wicket against).
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Burns and Wade will likely have been surpassed by better performers. The Indian attack is ok but will need far too long to dismiss the Aussies twice. The Aussie attack won't have those same difficulties.
Paul
Roar Guru
and if both sides end up with the same number of wins & losses, who is crowned the world’s best Test side? The side that scores the most 4’s? :laughing:
Paul
Roar Guru
It's not superstrong now, Dwayne. Burns isn't having a great summer, nor is Smith and Wade's averaging 33 against the Kiwis. If Bumrah and co get it right,they could easily run through us