After only 13 games Melbourne Victory’s board have made the hasty decision to remove Marco Kurz as head coach seemingly due to disappointing results.
Kurz becomes the second coach to be sacked in the new decade, following Ernie Merrick’s dismissal at Newcastle Jets.
However, whereas letting go of Merrick made sense given the results stemming back to last season, Melbourne’s decision to fire Kurz is far more perplexing.
Last month I wrote about how Kurz would need to make some big changes to his overall structure if he wished to succeed at one of Australia’s biggest clubs. Since then Victory were beginning to move themselves up the table with two wins and a last-minute loss to Central Coast Mariners.
More important than the final result, though, is the fact that the performances suggested Kurz was leading the team in the right direction. The attack looked to have belatedly figured out a plan with Robbie Kruse leading the line while Ola Toivonen was suspended.
The stats back this up, with Victory’s expected goals (xG) difference in the past three games far better than previous weeks, with the defence also proving themselves to be impenetrable at the back.
According to Wyscout, against the Newcastle Jets and Melbourne City Victory’s shots were worth 3.17 and 1.88 xG value respectively while conceding 0.71 and 0.48.
The Mariners game showed that while they were a bit more open defensively, aside from the penalties, Victory were largely still the better side when it came to creating chances. The penalties could be debated either way, but at the very least Kurz finally had his team playing to the same beat.
Which is why I find the call to let him go at this time very perplexing.
(AAP Image/Morgan Sette)
Without relegation there is no serious punishment for finishing near the bottom of the ladder. Regardless, Victory are sixth placed anyway and I think have enough to make the finals come the end of the season.
I understand that football is a results-based business, but performances can provide a far greater indicator of future results than any one score line could.
Western Sydney Wanderers are an excellent example of this. They were undefeated in their opening four games but played poorly. Eventually the results caught up with the horrid displays.
On the other hand, Perth Glory, last year’s premiers, were at the bottom of the table, but as I predicted, they moved up the table just as expected given their strong performances.
At the very least Victory should have given more time to Kurz to see if he could continue the gradual rise back to the top third of the table.
Now that Kurz is gone, assistant coach Carlos Salvachua has been promoted to the top job and it will be up to him to decide whether he wants to continue playing in his predecessor’s style or take a completely different approach.
The most important decision he’ll have to make regarding this is how to get the best out of his midfield. Kristijan Dobras, the most advanced midfielder, is reportedly on the way out of Victory, while Jakob Poulsen and Migjen Basha at the base of midfield have been average.
If Salvachua can manage to get the duo flowing with the rest of the squad, there is plenty of potential to turn the team into one capable of going far in the finals.
The two midfielders seem far more like players who like to express themselves with the ball at their feet rather than fight scrappy battles for the second ball. Kurz’s direct strategy did mean that occasionally the Victory midfield were outmuscled and ran past by fast opponents, especially on the counterattack.
It will also be interesting to see if Salvachua continues to play Anthony Lesiotis as a right-back where he excelled under Kurz this season. Traditionally a defensive midfielder, it is possible that Salvachua decides he wants someone a more physical holding player at the base with Basha and Poulsen pushed further forward.
It is a harsh decision for Kurz to take, but it will now be up to Salvachua to steady the ship that has already been rocked once in recent months when long-time legend Kevin Muscat left the club.
Perhaps a certain Kiwi Messi, Marco Rojas, could be the co-captain on the treacherous waters?
Jo Salazar
Roar Rookie
If this was Zidane at Real Madrid he's already sacked. Like Lopetegui before Solari and him. Not perplexing in the least. A victory for the Victory.
Jo Salazar
Roar Rookie
'Sticking to a failing strategy & hoping for a different result is referred to as the definition of insanity." This is also an opinion, per Webster's dictionary, but I digress.
Jo Salazar
Roar Rookie
This is not perplexing. It's a big win for the club, knowing that they are committed to reversing their poor form. This team would be bound for relegation if they finished at about the bottom and pro/rel was actually possible. Victory need to turn things around ASAP. This is a down year for them.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
I only really posted a comment because the article title describes the decision as Perplexing, but it's not really perplexing, Victory is a club which views itself as a perpetual contender, it wasn't contending so it took action, it has the resources to take action, in the A-League, 2 and 3 year builds can be left to the clubs at the foot of the table who don't have the same resources, they are the ones who need to be patient by necessity
Nemesis
Guest
It's your OPINION the Board wasn't united. Don't pretend it's a fact. And, it's an opinion that is possibly based on a false premise. A Board can be totally united & committed to a specific strategy &, if that strategy proves to be failing, a united Board will be just as quick to abandon the strategy, cut their losses & move on. Getting out early when a decision is not going your way is the basics for success in most businesses. Sticking to a failing strategy & hoping for a different result is referred to as the definition of insanity.
Waz
Roar Rookie
The Board wasn’t United. It’s why the decision to hire him took too long and why the decision to fire him was taken so soon.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
That's true Pacman, but equally you don't see nothing on the TV.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
Little Victorys, Punter
pacman
Roar Rookie
Nem is correct. One sees far more if one has a good seat, around the halfway line, and for most stadiums, about half way between sideline and bleachers. Best videocams in the world cannot match the quality of view from a good seat.
Nemesis
Guest
I don't believe any MVFC Board member has said anything on this matter, so it's all speculation. I know a Board Member. He invites us annually t o watch a match at AAMI Park from his company's corporate box. Last season it was obvious Muscat would not be coaching this season. Even at that stage, Kurz (who we knew was not staying at AUFC at the time) was the coach who was top of the priority list for this Board Member.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I don't respect it though. I would've respected them far more if they decided to be patient and give Kurz a chance to succeed.
Waz
Roar Rookie
I don’t believe the Board was united in his appointment. Doesn’t take much for the wheels to fall off when a Board is split.
Punter
Roar Rookie
Thank you Nem, we got there in the end. You stated that 'All other 10 matches MVFC played football that was worthy of at least a point.' Of which you included the MV v SFC. I stated that I watched that game live & did not feel MV deserved 1 pt in that game. You proceeded to insult me , accuse me of bias against MV in every game, ignorance to analyse a football game, but at the end we got there, that at least 1 game of the 10, MV did not deserve at least 1pt.
Nemesis
Guest
You're a Sydney FC fan & have watched, at the most, 1 Melbourne Victory match in the stadium. Apart from the likely negative bias that I'd expect from any rival fan talking about Melbourne Victory, there is added ignorance when you attempt to analyse a football match without all the relevant information. Punter points out that MVFC didn't deserve a point at Kograh. No problem. I still was happy with the performance. If the opposition is better, that's not a reflection on MVFC's performance. This is sport. Everyone is not equally good.
Punter
Roar Rookie
Haha Redondo, be careful though you have only watched it on TV, doesn't count in Nemesis eyes unless it's him watching on TV.
Redondo
Roar Rookie
Nemesis You have a remarkably sanguine view of Victory's performances this season. I've watched enough for me to wonder what Ola must say to his partner when he gets home after each game.
Para+Ten ISUZU Subway support Australian Football
Roar Rookie
Yes, Melb. V's board paniced unnecessarily.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
whether anyone agrees or not, you have to at least respect the Victory for taking prompt action, they deemed the first half of the season as a failure, made a couple of decisions with a view to getting back on track, they aren't going to die wondering
Shabab Hossain
Expert
I think I saw somewhere that Victory had talked to Adelaide before hiring and ignored the criticism from his former team to bring him on anyway. Probably won't happen again with the Jets though, surely.
Shabab Hossain
Expert
Very hard to tell what is going on at executive level for Victory. Many are saying that he was the wrong appointment, but since he was given a chance, I think he should've at least had the full season to show what he can do.