As the 2020 NRL season draws closer, the inevitable predictions about who will make the top eight begin doing the rounds.
The usual suspects are trotted out as absolute certainties to make the top eight while others have a line drawn through them before a ball is kicked.
Yes, the Roosters will make the eight. Yes, the Titans will miss out. Yes, the Tigers will be around the middle of the pack but ultimately miss by one or two games they should have won. These things are as predictable as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west.
Similar predictions will be made for 12 of the other 13 teams running around the NRL in 2020. The wildcard in the pack will be the Parramatta Eels.
This is a club more capable than any other of making punters and experts alike look amateurish with their ability to fuel the myth that they are able to field a competent team capable of competing for a title.
For those who have decided to include the Parramatta Eels in their 2020 tips as genuine title contenders or even a dark horse or smokey to win, I urge you to keep your money in your pocket and take a moment to look past the veil before committing yourself to the cardinal sin of tipping the Eels to be contenders.
On paper the 2019 season was very successful for the Eels, especially when taking into account they earned the wooden spoon only a season earlier. They made the top eight convincingly with 30 points, beating the Manly Sea Eagles’ points differential by ten points to secure fifth spot.
In the first weekend of the finals they treated their fans to an absolute demolition of a bumbling Brisbane Broncos team, who went home wishing they had finished their season after Round 24. In the regular season, the Broncos’ differential finished on a dismal -57 points. Thanks to the Eels they were bullied back to Brisbane with a finals differential of -58 points.
Of course, if we look a little closer, we can start to see the holes in the theory that Parramatta have turned the corner in their quest for success. The reality is that had they replicated their 2019 season stats in 2018 they would have missed the finals, with the New Zealand Warriors taking eighth place that year on 32 points.
Their record against top eight teams in the 2019 regular season was also less than impressive. They took the points in less than 50 per cent of those games, winning only five of their 11 encounters with top eight teams. They split wins one apiece with the Canberra Raiders, Manly Sea Eagles, Cronulla Sharks and Brisbane Broncos, and they also defeated the South Sydney Rabbitohs in their only encounter.
It was at the top end of town, however, that the difference between the Parramatta Eels and the genuine title contenders really showed. Minor premiers the Melbourne Storm and reigning premiers the Sydney Roosters made light work of the Eels in their regular season games.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
In Round 3, the undefeated Eels played their first home game of the season against the tenth-placed Sydney Roosters. After a strong start by the Eels in front of their home fans, the Roosters clicked into gear, eventually putting the cleaners through the Eels and running away with the game 32-18.
Magic round against the Melbourne Storm also proved to be anything but magic for the Parramatta Eels, who were unable to pull a rabbit out of the hat but found themselves able to get the Rabbitohs off the hook as being the last team to have over 60 points scored against them in a single game. In an absolute annihilation, the Eels capitulated in an embarrassing 64-10 loss to the Storm in their fourth worst defeat of all time.
The Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm did not play again in the regular season but the chance for revenge by the Parramatta Eels came in the second weekend of the finals after their 58-0 thumping of the Brisbane Broncos a week earlier. There was no better opportunity to defeat a Melbourne Storm team who cracked under pressure at home in the first week of the finals, going down to the Canberra Raiders 12-10.
Unfortunately for long-suffering Parramatta Eels fans, it was the Melbourne Storm who took revenge for having ten points scored against them by the Parramatta Eels in Round 9. This time they shut the Eels out completely in a comprehensive 32-0 victory. Once again that showed the vast gap between the Parramatta Eels and the NRL elites.
Over the course of the 2019 NRL season, the Eels lost their three games against the Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm by a total score of 128 points to 28.
One supposed positive for fans in the 2019 season was the re-signing of coach Brad Arthur until the 2021 season. This was designed to bring stability to the club.
When announcing the signing, Eels CEO Bernie Gurr said: “When we undertook our football review last year it was clear that a long-term strategy for our football department was needed to ensure our players and coaches have the best possible opportunity for success.”
The definition of success is subjective when looking at Arthur’s record. In his seven seasons as head coach, including his time as caretaker coach in 2012, Arthur has presided over two wooden spoons, plus finishes of tenth, 12th and 14th, and had two finals series in 2017 and 2019, which resulted in one win from four games. He has also presided over two of the top five worst defeats by the Parramatta Eels in their 72-year history.
(AAP Image/Brendan Esposito)
By most metrics, two wooden spoons and a single win in a finals series over seven seasons – along with owning 40 per cent of the worst five defeats in 72 years – may not be considered a success. But this represents success to the Eels.
Recruitment and retention is another metric that will significantly influence the capability of the Parramatta Eels to compete for a title in the 2020 season. Heading into the upcoming season, their three marquee signings are from clubs who failed to make the finals in 2019. Waqa Blake and Reagan Campbell-Gillard join from the tenth-placed Penrith Panthers, while a whining Ryan Matterson joins from the ninth-placed Wests Tigers.
Although not necessarily a metric that will accurately reflect the Eels chances of success, it is noteworthy to those superstitious fans that the last time the Eels recruited a player who sulked their way out of a contract at Wests Tigers – the inconsistent Mitchell Moses – he led them to a wooden spoon the following season.
While Ryan Matterson has certainly shown he is a more consistent player than Moses, there is little doubt he fell out with the playing group at the Wests Tigers before sooking his way into a contract at Parramatta. Eels fans will be desperately hoping his petulance does not rub off on the playing group and torpedo their 2020 season as Moses did in 2018.
Finally there is the home ground issue to contend with. On the heels of having the iconic Parramatta Stadium demolished, the Parramatta Eels have lost the advantage of having any home ground completely dedicated to them.
Sadly, they will have to make do with only one quarter of a home ground at Bankwest Stadium, which they will share residency along with the Wests Tigers, Canterbury Bulldogs and South Sydney Rabbitohs.
Although 2019 was a successful season for them at this stadium, the more time other teams spend at Bankwest as a home ground, the more they will get comfortable playing there. Ultimately this can only hamper the Parramatta Eels’ ongoing success, even with a parochial crowd behind them.
So for those punters thinking about having a bet on the Parramatta Eels taking out the title in 2020, you might find more value in the $41 they are paying to collect another wooden spoon instead of the $12 they’re paying to win the premiership.
Unfortunately for you stoic Eels fans, the club with the longest premiership drought in the competition doesn’t look like they have either the team or the management to end their 33-year dry streak anytime soon, and certainly not in 2020.
Benjamin
Guest
Parramatta Eels to win 2020 Premiership
Cyril snodgrass III
Guest
In your dreams the reality is that Parra wilts when they play the really good teams...like Easts
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Well, now he won't have that excuse under Hasler. I'm sure Des will bring out the best of him. But I would have jumped on Issac Luke and made him my starting hooker with Levi off the bench and to take over from 2021.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
As a Manly fan very happy with Levi.. I rate him highly and could never understand why he struggled at the Knights.. possibly coach Brown issues
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Apparently Shaun Lane has his nose out of joint at not being offered a new contract at the Eels beyond this season. Maybe they want to see how he fires up this year but as the player who won the clubs best and fairest he will be keeping an eye on how RCG performs and could lose a bit of motivation unless they sort it out.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Michael Lichaa as a hooker? Have you not read ANYTHING I have posted in the last 4 years mate? But then you are probably being ironic which always confuses me, yoy know that. ;-) Issac Luke would have been another option but Levi has a lot more games ahead of him and for that reason only is the better option of the two. Wayde Egan would have been another option before decided to end his career by going to the Warriors.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
How? My handle is Papi Smurf NOT Papa Smurf. Sorry if that confused you mushi.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
Stop buying premierships and South Sydney juniors and play by the same rules as the other 15 clubs! Souths still have more local juniors or talent developed through their lower grades playing in their 30 man squad and starting 17 than most other clubs. That's quite an achievement for a club with such a small and shrinking demographic. Pay attention mushi. The players I have put at the top of MY preferred trade list are NOT South Sydney juniors! Dane Gagai (Broncos), Corey Allan (Broncos), Bryson Goodwin (Sharks), Kurt Dillon (Sharks) and Mark Nicholls (Raiders). I have said all along I would like AJ and Doueihi (Tigers junior) to stay. But guess what mushi... I don't make those decisions! Richo, Bennett and Crowe do. Take it up with them.
Chris.P.Bacon
Guest
I'm actually quite surprised that Manly didn't make any moves to obtain the services of Michael Lichaa who's currently unsigned and looking for a club. After all, Des actually considered him a rugby league 'wunderkind' when he brought him to Belmore. Mmmm.....
mushi
Roar Guru
So you lied
mushi
Roar Guru
So your not loyal at all then just a raving hypocrite
mushi
Roar Guru
Three premier ships... it would take 2 life times for souths to accomplish that.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Just joking about you being on something Papi - its but a distant memory for me. Enjoy your banter. Both BJ and Rapana copped some injuries in 2019 which slowed them up a lot compared with their fantastic partnership since 2016. It was pretty amazing that BJ even came back and played late in the season given the seriousness of his neck injury. Its testament to his determination that he played in the finals. Jordy just didn't seem to have the speed that he's had in previous seasons. Maybe it was the succession of different injuries or maybe age catching up with him. I can understand why Ricky is looking to the future but it hurts to see blokes go who busted their guts for the Raiders and obviously had some great friendships with the rest of the team. They also gave the supporters a lot of great moments out at Bruce. Wish them all the best with whatever they end up doing.
Big Daddy
Guest
Brad Arthur could be well advised to take some tips from his Canterbury Cup coach who took them from 8 th to grand final. Read his resume and he knows how to win. Couldn't do any worse.
Brett Allen
Guest
Brad Arthur hasn't collected two spoons. He has one, 2018. In 2012 he was caretaker coach for the last four games of the season, of which they won 2 I might add. That spoon belongs to Kearney.
Doug Graves
Guest
I'll put it like this. I'd rather not make the finals than have him help us get there.
Brett Allen
Guest
Stephen Kearney, Paul McGregor, Ivan Cleary, Nathan Brown. There's four for you, and none of them had to put up with anything like the off field instability that BA had to put up with. None of them had his best player walk out on the club 3 weeks before the start of a season. Apples and Oranges
Jacks
Roar Guru
You have whinged for years that a club could not sign 3 high profile players in one off season?
Greg
Roar Pro
Agree that none would have been top dollar players but nor were any of them unknowns. They were all junior rep players in either rugby or rugby league!! Sivo came through the Fiji 7s development system and was labelled a future superstar before moving to Gunnedah aged 20 to play group 9 rugby league, not juniors. There is more money in rugby league than Fijian Rugby, it is also quicker to move up in league than world rugby. Yes, Parra signed him from Penrith reserve grade but he had well and truly already made a name for himself as a 1st grade ready player. Koroibete was definitely not just languishing in reserve grade. He was Tigers rookie of the year in 2012. It was only persistant injuries that stopped him playing more games at the tigers. Waqa, Again its not as if he was an unknown plucked from obscurity, he was a young player with some 1st grade games to his name that had to sit out one season due to contract mishap. A broke European Rugby club reneged on their big money contract) that kept in Shute Shield for one season before Melbourne signed him. If the argument is there might be a player in his early 20s about to break out who could be cheaper then sure, of course there is. And you are right Storm typically back these players and spend big elsewhere. But my point was none of these wingers were "plucked from anywhere".
J
Guest
Lmao, nice but of click-bait, Daniel. How did your Latrell to Tigers prediction turn out and I wonder if that little piece of fiction was written objectively with no bias in mind? Like, say perhaps, crediting BA with Kearney's spoon to BA to bolster your narrative. Or, "The reality is that had they replicated their 2019 season stats in 2018 they would have missed the finals." That's not how it works champ. You could also take their 2019 stats and insert them into a weak year and hey presto, they've made the top 4. Of course, that wouldn't suit your narrative though, would it? Then there's that total lack of context surrounding the issues BA's had to contend with during his time as coach that in some cases have taken results right out of his hands through no fault of his own. You've just lumped the end result in to bolster your narrative. Extremely poor journalism which is why The Roar is right up there with The Mole and Sportingnews as the cesspool of rugby league "journalism." Does this make BA perfect coach? No. I've questioned his recruitment and faith in certain players who continually let him and the team down. However, a rookie coach should never have had this much responsibility on his plate especially while the front office was an absolute mess. There have been seasoned first-grade coaches come through Parramatta who've handled things worse during better times. Then there's this other gem "the inconsistent Mitchell Moses – he led them to a wooden spoon the following season." What did he do in his 1st and 3rd season, Daniel? So, that's a top 4 and top 5 finish to one spoon. Again, that doesn't suit your narrative though. Where the Panthers finished is irrelevant to those two players. One, Blake joined the Eels halfway through the year, two RCG spent time in reserve grade and on the bench. They're also a prop and centre respectively, they don't own the result like a half for instance does. Sharing Bankwest with other sides is irrelevant. Souths shared ANZ with other teams as well and that worked out alright for them didn't it? It's also temporary for a few of them and I'm pretty sure that's Parramatta Leagues Club right across the road. Do I think Parra win the comp this year? No, But this article is extremely poor and reaks of bias and click-bait. You're either clicking on it to join the bashing or hate-read. Mission accomplished in that regard.