With the 2020 NRL season almost upon us, it will be a defining year for Paul Green and the Cowboys football department given the disappointment of the past two seasons.
Green does have some security with two years remaining on his contract, but another bad start to this coming season will drastically increase the scrutiny on him. In a way, he is lucky that he is coach of a team outside of the fishbowls of Sydney and Brisbane, as there is much more pressure applied to coaches in those cities from media organisations.
When he took over the position of head coach in 2014, the squad was already well established, full of representative stars, and was ready to win its first ever premiership. Green was able to help put some structures in place that the team previously didn’t have, which then helped the club win its first ever competition in 2015.
Ever since then, the team has been in decline, with the famous 2017 run to the grand final hiding some very big issues at the club. Few people remember that they were very lucky to make the finals series that year, and if they didn’t, the club would now be looking at three years of no finals football. The two main failures of the Cowboys football department from the past three to five years can be broken into the categories of player retention and development, as well as playing style.
Over the last three years, the Cowboys have released several young players that have subsequently become stars at their new clubs. This list includes players of the calibre of Kalyn Ponga, Viliame Kikau, Brandon Smith, Ethan Lowe and Corey Horsburgh. Most of these players left at a time when the Cowboys were in their most successful period in history, and the football department made the decision to invest in the older players and style rather than their younger players.
Kalyn Ponga left Townsville for Newcastle. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
As a result, the club has now had to clean out the older players that they invested in and now are recruiting players from outside of the region to make up for poor judgement. The most famous person was Ponga. They weren’t willing to pay for a player that was obviously very talented, instead preferring Lachlan Coote, who was subsequently released when the club realised their mistake.
Another is Brandon Smith, who was captain of the Cowboys’ under-20s team and would have been a sensation at hooker in the first-grade team. Instead they invested in Jake Granville, who hasn’t improved in several years and the club has now had to pay for a young Reece Robson, who is not from North Queensland, to cover this role in the future.
The other failure in this area is the development of the younger players that are at the club. Talented juniors such as Jake Clifford, Coen Hess, Gideon Mosby and Enari Tuala have failed to develop into regular NRL starters despite their massive success within the junior ranks. Why hasn’t this happened?
The Cowboys’ playing style has not developed and improved over the past three years. The style is based on bashing the ball up the field through one-out runs from middle forwards or outside backs, and then throwing the ball out wide using a set play.
The advantage of this style is that it should be relatively mistake-free and if you have two JTs in your team, they can conjure some magic from time to time to score additional points outside of the set-play tries.
Unfortunately for Green, most other NRL teams have improved and moved on from this style, and are now playing more risky and attractive styles. No longer can you rely on low-mistake football and set plays to score points and win games.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Teams need tactics and players that can beat opposition players through speed, agility, offloads, passing and a smart football brain. These are the biggest issues with their playing style.
The low quality of passing from dummy half restricts the time and options the playmakers have with the ball, and also increases the amount of knock-ons from forwards.
The lack of an organising dummy-half who can watch the defensive line, count numbers and make good decisions on when to run, pass or kick limits the Cowboys’ point of attack, meaning the opposition can more easily defend.
No offloads or passing games from forwards, edge forwards and centres limits the amount of second-phase play, which has the effect of allowing the defence to more easily tackle and not get tired, but also limits the Cowboys’ attack and doesn’t bring our small and quicker players’ attacking skills into the game.
The lack of pace and tackle-breaking ability of outside backs is also a problem. In prior years, players like Kane Linnett, Antonio Winterstein and Lachlan Coote have not scared too many teams’ defences. Watching other NRL teams, you will see many tries scored by individual brilliance from outside backs by beating a player one on one with speed and agility. The Cowboys have sorely missed players who can do this.
The low-risk style of football is another issue. These days, teams need to use the ball, play footy and go out onto the field to beat players one on one to win games. This includes getting offloads, breaking tackles, using speed and agility, and having smart players in key positions who know how to watch and analyse defences, which then leads to intelligent decisions on the plays being run.
Looking at the Cowboys’ recruits for 2020, they have a squad capable of competing with the top teams. But the key to the year is the performance of the coaching and football department.
johnno 2
Roar Rookie
Hi Nigel, good article mate and obviously positive support from we in the armchairs. Personally I feel Green has overstayed his welcome or hasn't the integrity to move and evolve. The powers to be in the Cowboys including Green seem to be stifling some good talent and so we see some prodigal talent move on eg Tom Flegler and maybe more to go in the future.This club seems to lack that real brotherhood that was apparent in Thurston's time, a spirit that North Queensland has ingrained and born with. Can't see the Cowboys near the 8 even tho they should be in the 4. Hope I'm wrong, but good luck to them regardless
Nat
Roar Guru
The off-season seems so long yet the footy season seems to fly by. You raise a fair point about the captaincy. Morgan would've had very dominant leaders in JT & Thumper w/ the like of Cooper and Moose being part of the old brigade. Now they (JT & Scott) are gone, I agree, he needs to find his voice along with his form. Don't think the Broncos have had a real 'leader' since at least '15 with Parker and Hodges. Sam as Captain was a mistake and I'm not sold on Glenn yet but he may prove me wrong. Personally, I prefer a cranky leader and I don't think Glenn is that guy to pound the young guys if they step out of line.
Chuck
Guest
So the Roar has a FB page? For the podcast?
Albo
Roar Rookie
Green turned Hess from a 20 minute devastating bench player into an 80 minute " dime a dozen " trundler ?
Rob
Guest
The off season seems to be lasting for ever. I’m very interested to see how this team comes together. A major concern for me is Morgan’s captaincy. He needs to be vocal and involved but I don’t think it’s his nature? I suspect that’s why Cooper is still around. Clifford has to be given the Green light to call the general running of the team as I think he may be the one with the potentially strong leadership qualities going forward. Leadership is something both the Broncos and Cowboys seem to be down on in recent times.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Unfortunately for the Storm its been more of a no choice but to bring in the youngsters as the players cash out with other clubs or codes but I get your comparison.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Now if only there was the option for a 1 year player swap available. ; )
Nat
Roar Guru
I think there's a fair to bit to get excited about for NQ this year. Time has forced Green's hand and he has a good mixture of youth and experience in th team. I know he's copped some flak for their lack of flair in attack but anything executed poorly looks pedestrian. Everything has been slow, old forwards and a high turnover in the backs. It was all very slow and disjointed. This year, barring any injuries, I think they've filled in the gaps well. Young forwards Jensen, Dunn & Molo bring some enthusiasm to a high quality pack. In Robson they have an attacking hooking option and #14. Control in the halves is still an issue and where Green has to make a big call. 2017 convinced Green that Morgan is a controlling half and subsequently gave him $1m to do so. IMO, either give Morgan the #7 and Drinkwater as a running 5/8 or make Morgan the most expensive center in the game. I have no doubt Clifford can come on, he has a very good all round game and is a controller but hsitory has shown both are being stifled. Fix this issue and the rest should be on the improve. However, let them find form in round 2...
3 bags empty
Guest
Geez , if ya were to ask Papi , the only players not on a mill a year at the Roosters are sitting on the bench.
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
You're right. Both the Cows and the coach need to find Greener pastures. ;-)
Papi Smurf
Roar Rookie
No jimmmy letting all 4 of those players go was a mistake in hindsight. I fear Souths have made the same mistake forcing Adam Doueihi out in favour of Corey Al lkan, Bryson Goodwin and Dane Gagai.
Rob
Guest
Ponga was awaiting Thurston’s retirement not only for the money but his opertunity at NRL. Thurston /Cowboys wanted the all time points record. It was a case of player being bigger than the team. JT and Scott were probably worth 25% of the cap before JT13 and Morgan. Gilbert is a workhorse and Hola is a strong ball carrier. If Mclean can play 20 plus games in the season we have a solid foundation up front. Cooper is aging fast i’m not sure why he should be keeping the younger blokes out of a starting position. I agree with JT 13 being off the field to much. Hopefully a fitter lighter Hess and Robson/Granville double act might keep him on the paddock with only one time out.
Rob
Guest
Forty Twenty the signing of JT for an extra year was why Ponga wanted out. Thurston had become a marketing tool and the extra season was done to ensure he surpassed Johns points record. Thurston was always going to have Coote at fullback with Winterstien. Cooper and Linnett. Ponga was not wanting to wait on the sidelines or playing Qcup, he wanted an opportunity.
Nigel Lando
Roar Rookie
Thanks for reading my article and giving your feedback. Seeing the interviews with the coaches and players recently, they haven't said to much about where they are aiming for this year and their playing style. I get the feeling the clubs is telling the guys to not say to much about their expectations and let their on field action tell the story. I have a feeling there could be some big changes in positions coming up this season. Might see JT playing on an edge rather than the middle, and see more creativity out of dummy half with Reece Robson to start.
Nigel Lando
Roar Rookie
Thanks for all the comments. All very interesting points. Another point i wanted to add was that looking at the squad for 2020, i feel that we again are on the brink of group of young players that could become the nucleus of the team going forward. Its vital Green develops guys like Tom Gilbert, Clifford, Cotter, Peter Hola, Pere, Simpkins, Tabuai-Fidow and Mitch Dunn into NRL a graders and ensures the best of the guys don't leave. Would be terrible to see these young guys at other clubs like Ponga, Kikkau, Smith etc are now. By the way I do a Cowboys podcast with a mate called "Cowboys chat" which will be starting back again soon for the 2020 season. Any feedback on that is appreciated also on Itunes and facebook page.
Rob
Guest
I agree Jimmmy in reviewing 2019 I don’t think it’s fair to say Green should have done better. He probably over achieved in making the 2017 GF. Maybe his players had nothing to lose but I must say he did a wonderful job with the team in the finals. The way went towards the back end of 2017 was different and refreshing. In 2018 they totally regressed and he failed to make the tough calls and back the next generation IMO. Maybe the hype around JT’s last hoora was something he was unable to change until it had run it’s course? Some how I don’t think a strong confident coach would have let emerging talent go for a squad of players well into their early 30’s. Bennett would have had Scott medically retired with JT, Winterstien, Linnett, Cooper, Bolton and Granville moved on at the end of 2017 IMO. I’m not sure he would have been letting Ponga or Brandon Smith go anywhere either. Green has certainly ditched the retirement village ethos from previous years and i’m wonder if the consistent dud out put of certain aging players in recent seasons has brought this about? He must be kicking himself Jai Arrow is on the same coin as McGuire. Morgan at 6 needs to get his hands on the ball a couple of times a set and Clifford needs to be steering the kicking game and most certainly the depth in our attack. JT had his own style, Clifford and Morgan need to develop a style that works for them and that can only happen by backing them IMO.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Sometimes a bloke has reached his potential where he is and with what he's got. Get a new job; get stuck in, leave your mark on it. It's a shame for him and for the Cows that he is there this year - he needs more experience. Good luck to him and the Cows anyway.
Rob
Guest
Being a head coach would be an incredibly tough job and you are definitely in the position where the buck stops. I don't envy any of the coaches but I will say a $1million dollar contract deserves critiquing. I've been incredibly angry and frustrated over recent years about retention, signings and team selections based on the brand of football they have wanted to play. As this was Green's first head coaching position I do think he relied heavily on the support of senior players and don't think he willing to lose that support when it came to making tough decisions. The 2015 Premiership unfortunately reinforced this. The young talent weren't stupid when they realised getting passed the old brigade and getting an opportunity would incredibly difficult. Signing Thurston for 1 more year was dumb as it ensured Coote, Linnett and Winterstein would be playing and the bash and barge one out approach would be continued. What the Cowboys achieved in 2017 making the GF. was totally lost by Green when he regressed backwards to the worn out playbook and personal. By the half way mark of 2018 he refused to admit his mistake. He completely missed the opportunity of blooding youth even when the wooden spoon was a likely end to the season? I think he was still very reluctant to back youth when signing Barba, McGuire and Kahu in 2019? I can't really bag him totally for 2019 which was such a complete disaster with injuries and poor referring that I don't think any team could have realistically expected to result in a top 8 finish. Green however has most certainly identified the positions requiring improvement IMO. Maybe he also identified that not backing youth is also an area for self improvement? Maybe up till now he hasn't been in position to totally do things differently? The make up of this years squad suggests he's looks willing to rectify some of his past mistakes.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
On the retention issue. Personally I am not upset about Ponga or even Kikau but Horsburgh and Brandon Smith were poor decisions. These are guys who will never get huge money but always play above their market value. They are exactly the type of player that the Cows should have courted.
Daz
Guest
1. Ponga was never staying, lets no reinvent history. Coote was only signed after Ponga's father/manager announced publicly that he was happy to wait in line and develop his game behind JT etc etc and then 1-2 weeks later he announced his son was leaving as the club was holding him back. I suspect Ponga got what he wanted to be top dog at a club not behind JT, the next JT and a few others thats where the 3rd party money etc is. 2. We are paying 3 players in the approx 30% of the salary cap. That leaves precious little to bring players in and and more importantly to upgrade contracts to improving younger players. With Morgan 4 years to go Holmes 5 years to go and JT 7?? we are going to be thin for a lot of years. To my knowledge the only other club with 3 million dollar players on the roster is Manly 2 Trajevicks and Cherry Evans and people are already talking about how thin their roster is for the same reason. I dont think many would say our there are the equivalent of Manly's 3 ATM 3. Our props are at best ordinary McLean has struggled to both influence the game and stay on the paddock (from AUS rep to not in the NSW squad in 2 years tells you something.) MCGuire is a brilliant lock playing out of position (why did we buy the best lock in Australia when we already had someone locked into that position. Two young props at the time may have been a much better investment no disrespect to him) Jensen is a workhorse but couldnt get a game last year Molo is good worker who will develop. Any injuries to our props and we are in big trouble 4. JT is the greatest attacking forward in the world in many opinions however he tackle rate is not up there like previous locks (think Johnstone/Campion) 40 plus tackles that hurt seem to be the standard these days. To cover this we need 2 workhorse second rowers to cover the workload. Is Cooper capable of this this year. JT also costs you 2 interchanges a game which means if you two props both having 2 stints a game 4 more interchanges and you rotate the dummy halves you have used all your interchanges. Having a lock that cant play 80 and make the usual tackle load comes at a cost. 5. The cowboys need to develop and hold talent and build toward a premiership window in 2-5 years time, every decision that the coach makes this year needs to be made with that goal. Hard to do if your job is on the line if we dont make the 8.