The Waratahs will do well to fill Scully Park in Tamworth next month.
It’s three losses in a row for the Tahs to start season 2020 after Friday night’s 24-10 loss to the Rebels in Melbourne. Far too early to write off their finals hopes, but the outlook is far from rosy.
If the game broadly in Australia is going arduous and uncertain times, then the spotlight will be felt most intensely in Sydney over the next fortnight with the Waratahs having a bye in Round 4.
It’s going to be a long two weeks.
Having a game off might be the best thing for the Tahs as they attempt to find a way to stop the rot. High on the list will be whether Rob Penney persists with 20-year-old Will Harrison at No.10 or moves fullback Kurtley Beale – a veteran of 159 Super Rugby games – closer to the action.
The selection of the Junior Wallabies five-eighth, following Bernard Foley’s departure to Japan, brought a degree of optimism that he could bring a fresh spark to the backline. Harrison has brought some nice touches over three games but Matt Toomua’s smooth display at flyhalf for the Rebels was a reminder of the importance of a reliable and experienced playmaker.
The Waratahs certainly can’t be regarded as wet-trackers.
There was driving rain in Melbourne, just as Newcastle had been wet and windy a week earlier. It’s another reason why Harrison’s introduction to Super Rugby has been trickier than it should’ve been.
Despite the slippery conditions over the past fortnight, the Tahs’ ball control has been far too inferior to give them a decent chance of grinding out a win. They made a massive 19 unforced mistakes against Melbourne.
How thick is the gloom?
The latest defeat leaves the Waratahs with their worst start to a Super Rugby season in the competition’s history. There isn’t a long injury list. There are plenty of new faces to replace Foley, Nick Phipps, Sekope Kepu, Israel Folau, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tolu Latu and Curtis Rona. But there’s also plenty of experience; among them Beale, Michael Hooper, Rob Simmons and Karmichael Hunt.
The post-World Cup movement of players meant that nearly every Super Rugby side across Australia, New Zealand and South Africa endured roster upheaval and have been forced to bring through a relatively fresh batch of personnel. So no excuse for the Tahs on that count.
A new coach deserves more time to infuse his strategies and attitude, but even Penney will be feeling a bit jittery about how to get the Waratahs out of their early-season hole.
At Tahs HQ, there will also be some anxiety over how to pump up interest for upcoming home games.
The loss to the Blues in Newcastle was witnessed by a crowd of 7491 – the lowest home crowd for the Waratahs in their 25-year history.
The Tahs next take on the Lions at Bankwest Stadium. In their first three games at the venue in Parramatta last year, the Waratahs lost to the Sharks, Jaguares and Brumbies. The new-look Lions are still a classy side, but not a standout drawcard for Sydneysiders, which should make it a hard match to promote.
In Round 6, the Tahs take a home game out of Sydney to Wollongong to host the Chiefs. The Warren Gatland-coached Chiefs are already humming and are rightly being talked up as title contenders.
The capacity of WIN Stadium is 23,000. Even though the Tahs get a bit of fresh air to promote the game because the NRL season is yet to start, it’s reasonable to predict that a half-full venue would be a solid ambition.
It’s then on to Canberra for Penney’s team where they will battle a Brumbies side that will likely still be on top of the Australian Conference.
Brumbies boss Phil Thomson this week bemoaned the fact that his team, on a ten-match winning streak at Canberra Stadium, still couldn’t attract a decent crowd.
After the opening two rounds, Canberra crowds have averaged just 7267 fans, which is down almost 15 per cent on their previous worst set in 2018 at 8391 per game.
That will come as a sobering reminder to Australia’s other Super Rugby franchises that even success on the field won’t translate into bums on seats. Put it down to the summer start to the season, the bushfire emergency, but predominantly the broad discontent with Australian rugby.
Why’s that? The Wallabies’ woes for the last two or three years that led to the World Cup flop. The messy Folau divorce. The broadcast deal negotiations, which have involved egos and angst.
It all means the Waratahs might struggle to get the 11,000 fans needed to fill Scully Park in Tamworth for their round-eight clash with the Bulls on March 21.
The upside of the rebuilding of Allianz Stadium in Sydney was the Tahs could take the game out of Sydney and spread the rugby gospel in places like Wollongong and Tamworth. It’s now shaping up
as a tough sell if the Tahs can’t turn it around and quickly.
If the losses mount and the dud crowds continue, the other tough sell is Rugby Australia’s broadcast package.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
True. But even Dan Carter wouldn’t make up for this Tahs pack/spine. Gibson’s chickens coming home to roost.
piru
Roar Rookie
I think this argument for poor performance by 10s, blaming the pack is far too simplistic and easy. A good 10 makes his pack better
jeznez
Roar Guru
Well that makes the Rebels win even more awesome, they won the match and the hard luck story!
Gav
Guest
Going by the amount of test caps The Tahs had they were easily the favourites. The Tahs had over 100 more test caps than the Rebels, so yes the Tahs were favourites.
Matt
Guest
You mean the Tah forward pack with 5 Wallabies in it?
jeznez
Roar Guru
So Rebels were the underdogs? I can’t believe that Tet Faulkner on our bench or HJH playing in a new position didn’t win it for us!
Gav
Guest
Rebels Ainsley, Uelese and Jones were not playing on Saturday. Only Hanigan was missing for the Tahs. So it was 10 capped Tah Wallabies v 7 capped Rebel Wallabies.
Noodles
Roar Rookie
Fully agree No8. The hopeful sign at the Reds and Brumbies -maybe Rebels - is that the big units have traction and, generally, are delivering front foot ball and some strike power. The Tahs seem to crumble and lack gain line winners. That said, I am even more depressed seeing KB wandering around with the new kids as if he's the tutor. He's no leader and, like Izzy, belongs in space where he can do his own thing. Penney has to concentrate on building Gordon and Harrison as the guidance of the backs, where the Tahs do have potential if only they could get delivery up front. I'm also over Hunt.
Cheika_Mate
Roar Rookie
The NSW Waratahs board need to sacked for allowing Daryl Gibson and ex CEO Andrew Hore to run down this side with very little future planning. Sekope played just about every minute last with a young bull Shambeka Vui like Mack Mason seeing very little rugby. Oh wait Vui is now signed by the Brums. Would have loved to see Vui and Angus Bell line up together and although still young they could have built a team around these guys. They could also have made a play for Slipper before he was signed by the Brums however Gibson came out and said we are sticking local. Gees with what. Robertson is a tight head learning to play loose head and then you have Dirty Harry who had a break out year last year at loose head thrown in this year at tight head. It’s not the players or Penny’s fault the board should have seen this train wreck coming.
Paul D
Roar Rookie
Based on the RWC retained wallabies is the best way to look at it from a squad strength perspective. Also, you won’t see anybody complaining that the Tahs were hard done by. Yet quite a few will talk about others from the franchises that deserved a spot on the plane to Japan. Tahs have the weakest squad by far and a brand new coach. It should surprise nobody that they will struggle at least to begin with. Sure I agree the manner of the loss of the last 2 games is very disappointing. But in the context of the year they are at most 1 win behind realistic expectations. There is plenty of time to regroup and show some good signs by year end.
jeznez
Roar Guru
At the squad level, I make it 11 for the Tahs, 10 each for the Brumbies and Rebels, 9 for the Reds Brumbies: Ala'alatoa, Sio, Slipper, Fainga'a, Enever, Samu, Valetini, Powell, Kuridrani, Banks Tahs: Johnson-Holmes, Robertson, Faulkner, Simmons, Hanigan, Hooper, Dempsey, Gordon, Hunt, Maddocks, Beale Rebels: Ainsley, Uelese, Philip, Jones, Hardwick, Naisarani, To'omua, Hodge, Koroibete, DHP Reds: Paenga-Amosa, Tupou, Rodda, Salakaia-Loto, Wright, O'Connor, Petaia, Speight, Feauai-Sautia Although that is a fairly irrelevant way to count since it has guys who've been picked once and guys that haven't played for the Wallabies for a long time. If you just count squad members that went to the 2019 RWC it's: 6 Rebels - JU, IN, MT, RH, MK, DHP 5 Brumbies - FF, AAA, SS, JS, TK 5 Reds - TT, IR, LSL, JOC, JP 4 Tahs - RS, MH, JD, KB
WallabyJ
Roar Rookie
Totally totally agree Gav!!!!!
WallabyJ
Roar Rookie
There is a very real possibility that the Waratahs may not achieve a win this season. Doom and gloom is definitely warranted!
jeznez
Roar Guru
:laughing: sadly I think there is a lot of truth in that!
Geoff
Guest
Agreed look at Tom Robertsons physique. That is what a prop should never look like. He would naturally be about 85 kilos when fit i`d suggest.That extra 20 kilos he is carrying is just useless puppy fat.
Scott
Guest
Are you saying all the teams Cheika picked from 2014 to 2019 were terrible? Hooper excluded ? Right ? None of the poor Wallabies performances were due to Hooper? He was good great every single game? Hooper is the one constant with a poor performing Wallabies, especially 2016-2019.That is a fact you cannot dispute. I wish Hooper would take a permanent sabbatical so we could get a real mongrel in your face number 7 back in the trenches with lineout and cleanout ability and not one who takes the cheap carries out in the backline and racks up tackle counts on outside backs.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
He should move back to the Brumbies :silly: . Guarantee you a lot of the criticisms of him would stop if he did.
Grugby Fan
Roar Rookie
Hit the nail on the head Peter K. Most 5/8s will do a job when the leaders and forwards do their job. The problem lies up front on phase play. 1st 2nd and 3rd phases look very pedestrian and the gain line is not being broken and made use of quickly enough. Too slow.
Grugby Fan
Roar Rookie
Would kill for some hard running forward!
Grugby Fan
Roar Rookie
Sorry Noodles but if the battle is in the balance or lost up front the back line will struggle. It's compounded by the fact these guys are new to each other I guess, but how many weeks of pre-season have they had together? I really want this team to fire but there's not much to like atm and there is definitely a lack of grunt up front. The gain line is rarely broken to the extent that the half can fire off quick ball, so how on earth can young Will Harrison expect to shine when he's taking the ball on the back foot. KB should never be allowed near the 5/8 position ever never! The longer the game goes the lessor the impact the fwds have and consequently back play is hamstrung. Fix the forwards (there are no hard runners, sure they run straight but speed is severely lacking) the backs will come good.