The reset season following the World Cup in Japan was supposed to be the one that brought Australian rugby competitively closer to our Kiwi rivals.
Utterly dominant over four years since their 2015 World Cup triumph, many humbled All Blacks were departing New Zealand to take up contracts in Europe and Japan.
Missing this Super Rugby season were Kieran Read, Brodie Retallick, Ben Smith, Sonny Bill Williams, Sam Whitelock, Ryan Crotty, Ma’a Nonu, Waisake Naholo, Owen Franks, Matt Todd, Liam Squire and Nehe Milner-Skudder.
Add to that huge exodus another tier of top-quality provincial players such as Jordan Taufua, Jackson Hemopo, Tevita Li, Melani Nanai, Luke Whitelock, Matt Proctor, Jeff Toomaga-Allen, Michael Collins, Sam Lousi and Toby Smith.
But after three rounds of Super Rugby, Australian sides have bagged just three wins. That’s three victories from 12 games – the three coming from Australian derbies.
None from six against foreign opposition is the sorry statistic that’s put a dampener on any early-season optimism that might’ve been building in Australia.
The Waratahs and Reds are yet to triumph. The Rebels have notched one win while the Brumbies should be unbeaten, but bumbled late against the Highlanders in Canberra last weekend.
It’s not even March, so let’s not call it a deep depression. But Super Rugby title contention for any of Australia’s four teams looks far-fetched, right? Are we all on the Western Force in Global Rapid Rugby?
Now Jordan Petaia is out for the season. Again. Mumps have got to the Brumbies. Matt Toomua and Reece Hodge are both sidelined with groin injuries.
New Wallabies coach Dave Rennie, over in Glasgow, could be forgiven for feeling as if Australia’s chances of winning back the Bledisloe Cup for the first time since 2003 are as gloomy as the Scottish weather in February. The first Bledisloe Test of the three-match series is still six months away, but the Kiwi teams are far from flopping when taking into the account the huge exodus of classy and experienced personnel.
Not only is the Super Rugby form of the Australian teams dire, but plenty of Wallabies and top young talent have moved on to overseas clubs. Samu Kerevi, David Pocock, Will Genia, Rory Arnold, Israel Folau, Bernard Foley, Christian Lealiifano, Sekope Kepu, Tolu Latu, Adam Coleman, Nick Phipps, Scott Higginbotham, Quade Cooper, Sam Carter, Curtis Rona, Caleb Timu, Duncan Paia’aua and Sefa Naivalu have all bolted.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
New Zealand’s five teams have thrived despite NZ Rugby’s unpopular “workload management” policy involving All Blacks players, meaning they haven’t all seen too much game time yet.
When Rennie, the former Chiefs coach and proud Kiwi, was revealed as Wallabies coach there seemed to be minimal negative blowback from New Zealanders. Most who weren’t revved up about the appointment of Ian Foster to replace Steve Hansen as All Blacks coach were filthy that Scott Robertson missed out on the gig.
But perhaps part of the mindset amongst some Kiwis was that Rennie, a two-time Super Rugby-winning coach with the Chiefs, could turn the Wallabies around and finally make the Bledisloe a decent battle again. Across the series. Australia’s recent wins in Perth and Brisbane are memorable mainly because they’re so scarce.
Perhaps Rennie can convince Raelene Castle to take another look at the Giteau Law. That might help. Back into the selection frame would come Kerevi, Coleman, Latu and Arnold. Maybe even Pocock. Sean McMahon is another.
Foster’s first All Blacks team will naturally look a lot different to the one that was stunned by England in Yokohama last year. However as gloriously evidenced in the clash between the Chiefs and Crusaders in Hamilton earlier this month, the depth in New Zealand rugby is as powerful as Australian rugby fans probably feared and expected.
In fact, watch any of Super Rugby’s New Zealand derbies and the speed, physicality and accuracy goes to another level, as it has for a while. They are the match-ups that seem to be becoming more appealing to Aussie rugby fans rather than any of matches involving Australian teams.
The entertainment element might be surpassing any provincial or patriotic motivation for Australian rugby fans.
The first Bledisloe clash is in Melbourne on August 8, with the second match a week later in Wellington. It’s a long way away, and it’s over the top to declare the trophy is in the All Blacks’ bag.
But given what we’ve witnessed so far, there are few signs that suggest Australian rugby is ready to close the gap on the Kiwis, who move forward with perennial power and professionalism.
Redbeard
Roar Rookie
Oh come on Onside, Hooper and Beale have been ordained for play in the Wobblies regardless.
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
I don’t think the Brumbies illness worries are a beat up, but I also don’t think they should make us worry about some wallabies games in six months’ time.
Tony Hodges
Roar Rookie
I think Kuridrani gets the ball precisely to truck it up and bend the line. Hands moves go elsewhere with him as the decoy. I think he could work very well outside JOC as second 10.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Sounds really good RT!!!
freddieeffer
Roar Rookie
Agree Eff, although I only mentioned Foley in my thread, I didn't want to list all the serial offenders in this category (but we forgot Beale!) I reckon at Test level, at most you can carry 1 player with liabilities. We were carrying way more than that, and especially at a 'spine' position. Guess what??
Jimbo81
Roar Rookie
Brumbies front row. All other forwards Reds. No Hooper except on the bench as a finisher (that would drive teams insane). Pick the 5/8 from the team that finishes highest on the ladder along with his 12, 13 and 15 so combinations develop. Keep this unit together. 11 and 14 need a kicking and high ball game in addition to being the best finishers.
G Len N
Roar Rookie
Thanks Sheek. I was a teenager way back then. I remember the series as being epic between 2 very competitive teams.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
I’m glad I’m not in a Roar Punters Club with some these pundits. We are no where near the class of the NZ sides. Not sure about what SA will come up with. We will improve over the next four years, we won’t win many games in the process. Let’s just pick the best players twice a year, and be happy with improvement. If we expect wins we will be disappointed, and Rugby will suffer more.
jameswm
Roar Guru
??? I wouldn’t select Foley.
Ben
Guest
Hmmmm, lot of similarites in this article by Richard Knowler and yours Will,......??? Aussies' woeful form in Super Rugby could doom Bledisloe Cup RICHARD KNOWLER OPINION: The droning of the cicadas at maximum decibels isn't enough to shut out the nagging doubts about the Bledisloe Cup series. The first test of the three-match series is still six months away but the duel between new Wallabies coach Dave Rennie and All Blacks boss Ian Foster is, sadly, already in danger of being as appealing as a couple of list MPs poking their tongues at each other at a bus stop. Rugby supporters from both sides of the Tasman should pray this prediction is nonsense, because God knows the code in this corner of the planet needs a rev-up. Super Rugby is, arguably, at its lowest ebb. The competition has started far too soon, crowd numbers are dreadful (apart from in Japan where, ironically, the Sunwolves are on a farewell tour), and NZ Rugby has annoyed fans with the clumsy, and unpopular, 'load management' policy involving the All Blacks. At least the Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders are trying their best to drum up support, unlike the Blues who continue to be a subject of ridicule. A few South African teams deserve to have a bouquet of proteas plonked at their feet, too; the Stormers are unbeaten, and the Sharks looked okay until they got lashed by the Hurricanes The Lions and Bulls already look short of ideas, while the Jaguares, last year's beaten finalists, are proving they could have the potential to again do good things. Then there's the Aussies. Well, what can you say? Between them the four teams have played 12 games, with a return of just three wins. The Waratahs and Reds are yet to bang out a victory tune. The Rebels have recorded just one win. The Brumbies should be unbeaten, but in Canberra last weekend they surrendered the ball in the final moments against the Highlanders and conceded a late try. It was unbelievable. Rennie, watching from his cosy abode in Scotland, must have been tempted to sweep his sausages and eggs off the breakfast table in disgust. So back to the Bledisloe. The battle between New Zealanders Rennie and Foster should be a cracker. All the ingredients are there. Rennie, the chap who clearly didn't get along with the big names at NZ Rugby when he coached the Chiefs, didn't bother applying for the All Blacks job because he wanted to help the Wallabies once he completes his contract at the Glasgow club. Foster also coached at the Chiefs. Unlike Rennie, who presented the club with two titles, he failed to win the silverware in eight seasons. Foster's first task will be to repel Wales and Scotland in the domestic series in July, before the first Bledisloe against the Wallabies in Melbourne on August 8. Bledisloe II will be staged in Wellington a week later, with the finale in Brisbane on October 17. The tests against South Africa and Argentina will be sandwiched between those fixtures, but as former All Blacks coach Steve Hansen often emphasised, it's the "Bleddie" that Contracted to Rugby Australian through to the 2023 World Cup, Rennie will have warned CEO Raelene Castle and the board not to expect miracles in the first season. That's understandable. But in the test area, it's non-negotiable that teams do their utmost to win games. When Rennie was appointed as Wallabies coach there was little, if any, negative feedback from New Zealanders. The sentiment, even if it was only whispered behind locked doors, was that maybe he could help add some pepper to the Bledisloe Cup series. MORE FROM RICHARD KNOWLER • SENIOR SPORTS WRITER richard.knowler@stuff.co.nz Surrendering a trophy that has been in NZ Rugby's possession since 2003 may be anathema to loyal All Blacks fans, but many would surely welcome more decent games. Perhaps Rennie's bosses at Rugby Australia will review the Giteau Law which, as it stands, would only allow him to select overseas-based players who have amassed 60-plus caps, have played seven seasons of Super Rugby or are slated to return to that competition the following year. Regardless, Rennie would have hoped the Australian Super Rugby teams would be more competitive. While Foster, despite the post-World Cup exodus, will still have a long roster loaded with experience and talent, Rennie must drill into a pool of limited resources. The Bledisloe Cup is still a long way off, and it some might argue that it would be hysterical to say the series is already doomed. Rennie is a good rugby coach, not a wizard with magical powers. This duel is already looking like it will be lop-sided. Foster, unlike his counterpart, won't lack firepower. Rennie, by contrast, could enter the trans-Tasman fight with the equivalent of a bag of water balloons and jelly snakes at his disposal. And, if that proves to be the case, the biggest losers will rugby's loyal supporters. From both sides of the ditch. Stuff
Faith
Roar Rookie
Yeah, with Rennie the WBs will improve 30 per cent in energy, nous and wiles. The ABs will go down quite a notch. This will be a competitive series of matches and should go the ABs way as a test of the new coaching. But Rennie should give WB fans something to look forward to ...
Harry Jones
Expert
Fozzie’s NZ v Rennie’s OZ is a straight up push, in my opinion, except at 10 and 15, and WBs need speed to add to Koroibete.
pm, old stock isn’t always necessary as the Boks showed last year, our back line performed way above expectation with some seriously inexperienced international players such as Herschel Jantjies, Am, Mapimpi and Nkosi. The newbies might just surprise.
pm
Roar Rookie
You South Africans - Harry and Corne - are the most positive, optimistic sounding blokes on here. Odd that. Winning leaves a good taste
pm
Roar Rookie
I’m most concerned at lock: Arnold, Carter, Coleman gone. And is Nic White gonna be back in Oz again by July to play at 9? To me the only spots we are solid in terms of depth among players actually in Oz are 1,3,7, 12, arguably 11 and 13
pm
Roar Rookie
I like the attitude Corne but the stocks of players who are proven at Test level is very very thin. I'm not going to be judging the Wallabies on wins at all this year, more on cohesion, execution, intensity
pm
Roar Rookie
I would have given QC a shot at the WC out of desperation, more or less. But not now, gotta move forward. And he's the only guy you would bring back from overseas?
pm
Roar Rookie
Wilson does look very solid for a young guy
pm
Roar Rookie
Key difference there I think is transparency. Cheika seemed direct and probably honest generally but there was rarely a look into the selection (especially) , development and coaching process. It was just kind of he is one of Cheika's guys or he isn't.
Jocko
Guest
We won’t beat Argentina and will get flogged by a fairly ordinary ab side.