There’s one side so far this Super Rugby season that’s scored the most tries, comfortably made the most line breaks, racked up the most run metres with the ball and made the most offloads.
They’re near the top of the table, right?
Statistically strong but low on the ladder sit the Queensland Reds.
One win from six games puts them third in the Australian conference and tenth of 15 teams on the overall ladder.
That the Reds are struggling to that degree is a head-scratcher for stats-lovers, even when taking into account they’ve played one more game than a lot of other teams and they belted the weakest side in the competition – the Sunwolves – by 64-5.
Consider this: the Reds have scored 26 tries and according to Fox Sports, carried the ball for 4203 metres, made 51 line breaks and offloaded 70 times.
In average terms per game, the Reds (700) are second to the three-time defending champion Crusaders (745) in run metres with the big-improving Blues (662) next best. Per game, the Reds make 8.5 line breaks, ahead of the Crusaders (7.8), Waratahs (7) and Hurricanes (6.8). The Reds offload 11.7 times per game, which is second to the Crusaders (13.4) and ahead of the Sunwolves (9.6), Hurricanes (9.2), Rebels (9) and Chiefs (8.2). Queensland are also third when it comes to tackle busts.
Perhaps now is the most appropriate time to concede that statistical superiority isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. The ladder-leading Sharks are last on the stats for line breaks, offloads and attack with seven or more phases, and are in the bottom bracket for run metres and tackle busts.
The defence stats for the Reds aren’t as impressive but they’re not dire either. They’ve been hurt by turnovers, which at almost 15 per game on average, is the third highest in the competition.
But it’s clear that the Reds know how to move the ball down the field efficiently. Brad Thorn and Liam Wright have bemoaned their failure to put their foot down when the game is there for the taking. Four of Queensland’s five losses have been by ten points or less. They should’ve knocked off the Crusaders in Christchurch last Friday night, out-scoring the home side four tries to three but missing all four conversions.
(AAP Image/Darren England)
The Reds will be hardened by their opening six matches in which they’ve only taken on one Australian team, a clash that resulted in a 27-24 defeat to the Brumbies in Round 1. Bruising encounters against the Jaguares, Sharks and Crusaders over the last four games have them primed for a strong run of form. There’s a decent chance that the Reds could go on a run over their next six games, which would put them well in the frame for finals qualification.
First up, the Reds face a team that have also won only one match this season – the Bulls – and should have them covered in Brisbane on Saturday night.
The Reds have a bye the following week after which they’ve got five games before another bye in Round 14 at the start of May.
This period will make or break their chances of finals footy, and significantly, it’s also likely to decide whether Thorn gets offered another contract as coach beyond his current deal that expires at the end of 2020.
The Reds’ sequence is as follows: Brumbies (H), Sunwolves (A), Melbourne Rebels (H), Waratahs (A) and Highlanders (H).
They are all winnable if the Reds get their tails up and get into a groove. Having home-ground advantage against the Brumbies and Rebels is important. The Brumbies will be primed to take down the Reds as they follow their trip to Brisbane with an arduous draw of matches against the Hurricanes and Jaguares at home and their South African swing against the Sharks and Bulls.
The Reds will be snapping at the heels of the Brumbies by the start of May. There’s a spirit and solidarity at the Reds that has been strengthened during the first few months of this season. They are ready to get on a roll and will be competing for top spot in the Australian conference.
(AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Thorn is still searching for his best combinations, although injuries haven’t helped. The loss of Jordan Petaia was massive. His replacement, the hard-edged Hunter Paisami, is out for this round with a knee injury. JP Smith is also missing because of illness.
In total, six changes have been made to face the Bulls. James O’Connor is back at five-eighth after recovering from an ankle injury, shifting the slick Isaac Lucas back to the bench. Chris Feauai-Sautia takes over at outside centre while Bryce Hegarty, their best goal-kicker, is wisely included on the wing. Scott Malolua keeps his gig at halfback, which may mean Thorn prefers Tate McDermott as a finisher off the bench.
Harry Hockings and Angus Blyth get a start in the second row with Izack Rodda still being rested. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto returns to the back row while Angus Scott-Young is on the bench.
It’s time for the Reds to turn their early-season promise into a run of wins. There’s been top-drawer skill and speed on show; the 80-metre Henry Speight try from a lineout win last week against the Crusaders was a perfect example.
The stats paint a picture of a side who are much better than where they currently sit, but the reality for the Reds is that the win column is the only number that needs to grow.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
And the recruitment policy is rubbish at the Reds (for Props)
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
None. A never said they did. I only challenged the claim that the Reds had some tough draw. For every “tough” game they also had an easybeat.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
They both lost?
Jacko
Guest
What team has had it tougher?
Jacko
Guest
Brumbies v Reds Brumbies v Rebels...
Jacko
Guest
yeah they are down a few....When you start getting guys fom NZ who have played Brisbane club for years and not made SR then the injury situation is getting bad.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Compare the Rebels vs Lions v the Reds vs Lions and that gives a clear picture?
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I totally get what you are saying, but I think you are being purposely obtuse about Fionn’s point. I like you am not sure whether they are supremely talented as they haven’t matured yet into complete players and consequently they are still too all over the place. But Fionns point about have some great raw talented individuals from which they should and will develop under the tight management and with the right attitude is reasonable. Ultimately as you imply that will only be understood of how they develop over the next few seasons and that doesn’t account for the fact that other teams also have some great youngsters coming through too, so the road to consistency in winning games is neither an easy one or one that opposition teams will give you a free ride.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Yeah I don’t entirely disagree. The problem for me is just that the Reds has been building for so long.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
Thugby. Agree. The Sharks made them look like boys. One moment that stood out for me was when Paisami got held and then the ball stripped from him as easily as taking it from a 10 year old girl. But as this is a relatively young team, those things will improve from season to season, but is also the reason I think they are a couple of seasons off being in a position to contend for the title.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
But Fionn, that is the reason to watch them… they are developing. Do you only take an interest in your kids when they are all grown up… mate it’s the journey. Of course the journey is full of missteps.. but as long as the projectory is in the right direction… winning consistently isn’t everything. Best games I have been to is travelling to Auckland, playing for the log, the terrace and the hoardings, red, yellow and black… the colour and the noise as we stuff them in front of their fans. We end a run that has gone on for at least a year. Disappointment, we defend it against the Bay of Plenty then lose it to Wellington. Our shield reign lasted 3 miserable weeks. Some years later, again Auckland has the shield. Again we turn up in numbers and again we crash the party after Auckland has set the record for the longest shield reign. This time we hang onto it, but consistency is not good enough to be in contention for winning the NPC. Friends from Canterbury are saying at the end of the year “who won the NPC”. I say “Who gives a fk, who has the log”. Seeing Aaron Hoppa lay Jeff Wilson out while he is held by the legs as Wilson comes in like a missile to smash him over the top. Aaron Hoppa, striving down the field, smashing his way and fending with elbows through multiple players, on his way to the line. We lost the game. Dwayne Monkley, John Mitchell, Arthur Stone, Paddy Dabou nailing opposition ball runners multiple times in a game. Regardless of winning or losing we are leaving them bruised. Paul Koteka just for his shape and stature and being a good prop. Richard Loe for being one of the best looseness props ever. Disappointment Richard Loe for eye gouging. Happy with him hitting Carozza late.. I too was frustrated that he scored that try even if it was fair. I never like the opposition. Might support them when playing against someone else, but against us… yeah it’s war. Brent Anderson wrapping up an Otago forward in a bear hug and the Waikato pack driving behind shoving the Otago pack form our 22 to almost theirs and half the Otago forwards hanging off the ground desperately trying to drag it down. Fionn this for me is what is about. Sometimes losing the game but winning the fight is enough to walk away with some level of satisfaction. Believe me growing up in the Waikato and supporting them has been a trial in humility, but nah fk it mooloo ole ole ole.
Chivas
Roar Rookie
I imagine he would have his mentors and access to some of the great rugby minds in Robbie Deans, Wayne Smith, Graeme Henry, Steve Hansen, having played under them for large periods. It is an interesting point you raise KCOL, one I think that largely goes uncommented on. As smart and clever as any individual is; a strong network makes a world of difference. There is no way Thorn would be able to coach at this level and come on as quickly as he has without both playing and having access to some of the best rugby minds in the world. This is how he has been able to be fast tracked into such a high profile coaching position and why imho he should be persevered with. He has already made some good inroads and it looks to me the Reds are on an upward projectory and that he is working to a plan. Fans may disagree with his dropping of their favourite players, but what people miss is he didn’t make this decision in a bubble. There were definitely others that would have been consulted with and known before the cuts were made… meaning that he didn’t only have support, he had buy in from people, with an interest in seeing both him and the club succeed, as he tries to establish a club that prides itself on its values and culture. Yet this is not clearly understood to many as people judge him on how he communicates in the media and then extrapolate to suggest he has poor communication skills. Just hating on him because it is simple and means you don’t have to understand all the nuances is what many people find frustrating about the current consumer era we live in. And then these people get to spread their ignorance and get liked for it via social media… and so we find ourselves in a world where Trump is president of the a United States. If all people are focussed on is winning, they really are missing a lot. I have been a Waikato and Chiefs supporter since the mid to late 70s when I started going and watching the mooloo men at Rugby park. I have seen losing streaks that make you despair, seen inconsistency that wants you make you want to stick sharp pencils in your eyes… but we hang tough because we can’t support anyone else. This is who we are born and bred Waikato. I see the Waikato river, where we have rafted, water skied, floated down, swum in, raced go karts on the side off. We know the rolling hills and all the streams and lakes. We know the culture. We went to school their, we got into fights and trouble their, met our first loves they’re etc. We are proud and defiant of where we come from and who we are. This is no different for those from QLD, NSW, Canberra, Melbourne, the Western Force… which is why dropping a team like the Force hurts a lot.. I understand that. I understand the angst fans feel when their team fails. But if some folks actually took a breath I honk they would see that Brad Thorn is not a rubbish coach. He has a plan and it seems to be getting done. Of any player lost Samu Kerevi and James Slipper have been sorely missed. But the coach can’t be blamed for their departure. They made decisions which led to their departure. Personally I see enough that as a fan I wouldn’t be struggling with following the Reds even if they aren’t threatening the top of the leader board currently or winning games they should or could have. It is so early in the season and they are not out of contention yet. I am rooting for my team right up until the final game they play in the season. The fifteen guys on the field is who I am hollering for and throwing comments about and sometimes the ref :happy:. The coach on the day he is just another fan and supporter on the day. Players skills are their problem. How players prepare and turn up is their problem. High performance teams are effective and with the resources and coach they have… with the right culture and values, the Reds can go on and develop a legacy which lasts longer than a season or two. But to achieve this requires a lot more work and effort behind the scenes than many people appreciate… including making hard decisions around dropping players. Anyway those are my thoughts for what it matters :happy:
The Ferret
Roar Rookie
Hahaha... my wife always cracks up at a comment I received in 4th grade- “he has a zest for life” Big finish or goodbye Brad it will be.
Noodles
Roar Rookie
Well my grandmother was. But no. I’m wholly domestic to Australia. Played about nsw and vic some many years ago.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Not really Peter. The Reds have Australia’s best goal kicker in Hegarty; the starting tight 5 and back row, McDermott, JOC, Stewart, Paisami and Speight are all good tacklers; most players are capable of passing and offloading; perhaps the best scrum in the competition; Australia’s most skilled forward in Tupou. I think the players have the most talent in Aus, but they’re being let down by inferior coaching to that available at the Brumbies. They’re also the youngest team in the comp by some margin so presumably will improve the most. I said they were the most talented at the start of the season and I still believe it. It’s my view, whether you agree or not.
PeterK
Roar Guru
ThugbyFan - I never meant to imply they couldn't defend just that they are average i.e mid table and not supremely talented in defence which was my point. Agree re the ruck they are average there as well. The attack stats are inflated due to 1 game against club side sunwolves.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Fionn - I know you do , they are supremely talented despite many areas being at least average which even you acknowledge but happy to rationalise away
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Yes maul defence is terrible. But they’ve also had a really tough draw.
Oblonsky‘s Other Pun
Roar Guru
Who has been praising Wessels?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
They’ve also played 2 teams that were the bottom of their conference. So it’s not that tough.