The COVID-19 virus that has now become a global pandemic has thrown a spanner in the works of every one of Australia’s sporting codes and the impacts will be felt both this season and in seasons to come.
To work out who’s best placed to recover from the storm, I’ve put together a list of bullet points outlining the strengths and weaknesses of each of Australia’s football codes. I’ll use these to draw a few of my own conclusions at the end.
AFL
Strengths
• Largest crowds in Australia and fourth largest in the world of any professional sports league
• 50 per cent of revenue generated by crowds and memberships
• Significant membership numbers
• High participation rate
• High TV viewership
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Weaknesses
• Many clubs reliant on pokie revenue
• Expansion clubs draining resources
• Low TV viewership in New South Wales and Queensland
• No international interest
• Limited prospects for expansion
• Largest player and staff lists
Rugby league
Strengths
• Highest TV audience of any code
• Good membership numbers
• Second highest crowd averages
Weaknesses
• Just 30 per cent of revenue generated by crowds and memberships
• Low and declining participation numbers
• Heavily reliant on TV revenue
• Many clubs reliant on pokie revenue
• No clubs in Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania or the Northern Territory
• Limited interest beyond New South Wales and Queensland
• Limited prospects for expansion
• ARL Commission chairman Peter V’landys has cost the code a lot of political capital
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Rugby union
Strengths
• Competition is international
• Wallabies generate good publicity when playing well
• Sport has an Olympic presence
Weaknesses
• Competition suspended
• Administration of the sport is the worst in Australia (complete omni-shambles)
• No free-to-air presence
• Low crowds
• Competition splitting apart internationally
• Lowest participation rate of any code
• Only four teams in Australia
• No teams in Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania or the Northern Territory
• Expansion out of the question
• No national competition
• Club rugby teams unlikely to make jump to professional competition
• Israel Folau fiasco
Football
Strengths
• Highest participation rate of any code (two million)
• Huge registered player base that can provide source of fees
• Scope for fan ownership of clubs
• Highest digital and streaming engagement of any code
• Youngest fan-base of any code
• Even level of support nationwide
• Clubs not reliant on pokie revenue
• Socceroos and Matildas are highly popular
• World Cup boosts participation and FFA finances every time it is held
• Highest potential for expansion of any code
• Biggest potential for global audience growth of any code
• Respectable crowds by international standards
Weaknesses
• Low crowds by Australian standards
• Low memberships
• Poor linear TV ratings
• Only one match on free-to-air per round
• Competition from foreign leagues for both players and fans
• Club owners can be fickle
• Weak support from government
• Hostile media
• Old Soccer vs New Football has created a great schism
• Football pyramid not connected through promotion/relegation
• Oversized stadiums are a drag on club finances and reduce interest from fans
(Albert Perez/Getty Images)
The financial hit that all of these competitions will take due to the virus will be huge and the effects are going to be felt for years to come. Continuing with matches to keep broadcast revenue coming in is the only way the codes have to soften the blow.
While the AFL, NRL and A-League all have plans to play behind closed doors, there is pressure from doctors in Western Australia, who are pushing for WA to ban visitors from other states, which would make a national competition impossible if others follow. There have already been similar calls for Tasmania to do the same. This means that playing games in one location will be the only way to have any certainty about being able to complete the season.
If teams are placed in lockdown and players aren’t allowed out into the community there would be very low risk of any of them getting infected. So it is a plausible solution and non-playing teams can provide a small crowd.
But even if seasons can be completed, the responses of the codes have already shown all sorts of cracks in their financial situations and this could sting them going forward. When the next set of broadcast negotiations come up, they will be in a weak position, especially with declining viewership on both free-to-air and pay TV as well as declining crowds. Then there’s declining advertising revenue from sponsors who might still be reeling from the impact of the virus.
(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The only way for future TV deals is down. The codes have built themselves on a gravy train of TV revenue and now that gravy train is coming to a stop. The virus will simply hasten the process.
The crowd, membership and TV viewership figures for the AFL and NRL will give these competitions a future, but they might have to make painful decisions to downsize and cut wages. On the negative side, they attract only limited interest outside of their heartlands and have little scope for expansion, which makes for poor prospects for growth. Also, in the case of the NRL, the press conference given by Peter V’landys calling for a government bailout could really come back to hurt them.
The A-League might manage to struggle through, or it might fold. But even if it does the sport still has enough going for it to re-invent itself, if it has to. With a massive registered player base, the youngest fan-base of any code, the highest digital and streaming engagement of any code and a fairly even level of support nationwide, the A-League has real potential for future growth. This will place it in good stead in negotiations with potential streaming partners.
As for Super Rugby, it’s just too far gone to save. It has so many problems facing it that it’s game over for them.
But none of the codes have really been shown in a good light by all of this. The only thing that’s certain is that it will be a turbulent time for the codes and their constituent clubs as well as for fans.
We live in interesting times.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
I lived in Adelaide for a while (77=78) near a railway station that recently closed. My friend was a West Torrens fans and I saw a few of their games, their only win being against Woodville. I don't like Port but I like the Adelaide Crows. Wasn't it called "League footy" to differentiate VFL from the VFA "Association footy"? I think VFA teams had 16 players and a few different rules to play but it shows how big Victorian football is.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
I'm certain that Aussie Rules was played in Sydney before Rugby League started in 1908 so you're saying that Greg Chappell isn't the world’s best example of poor sportsmanship. It was pretty bad even if you could give us better or worse.
Bing
Guest
Tim, maybe you should get your facts right before throwing stones.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Greg Chappell is the world's best example of poor sportsmanship and brought shame upon Australia with his under-arm bowling. Aren't you embarrassed to call him a South Australian? Aussie Rules was played in Sydney before Rugby League started in 1908 and had better crowds than Rugby Union.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the NT maybe places you have heard of. I also remember footy used to get referred to as "League Footy". More in referring to the game's administration auspice than the actual game being played.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Maybe in Victoria it was always called Australian Football but in Sydney, where no code got to call itself football, it was called Aussie Rules. Nobody got upset that their game was called Soccer, League, Rugby, Union or Rules and I had plenty of friends who played them. Of course if I was going to watch St-George play Souths I would’ve said to my mum I was going to the footy.
Randy
Roar Rookie
they should reach out to Hugh Jackman. He's a big manly fan isn't he? Souths vs Manly can be the battle of the Hollywood clubs
Panthers3
Roar Rookie
there may be some casualties. Manly are in a very bad position with a private owner who's value has dropped 30% in the past week. i doubt any one would buy them now so yeah, i hope they die before 2021.
Verfel
Roar Rookie
No harm in asking, at least they were open about it.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
There was a recent article citing some very large numbers. I don't think anyone would dispute the claim. Then there was a more recent article citing Optus viewer metrics. The article stated that Optus has discovered that Australian football fans are keen to watch any form of football, and will do so in large numbers, even an international like Faroe Islands vs Montenegro landing a solid viewership.
Onside
Guest
Hi Jakarta Fan, a couple of things to take into consideration re C19 1. The virus is asymptomatic , meaning a person or player can have the desease for five days , show no symptoms and not know it , but during this time it is highly contagious. 2. Because of limited testing and lack of testing facilities the number of people with the virus (some will subsequently die) is grossly under reported. 3. There has been no testing at airports or cruise ship terminals since we became aware of the virus. Just yesterday a cruise ship came into Sydney and 2700 people disembarked, of which about 16 had symptoms, 3 seriously , of which 1 is now in intensive care. What % of the 2700 now spread everywhere carry the virus. 4. C19 is at least four months off its peak with lots of bad news to come . 5. Our politicians have no idea how bad it will become ,nor do they have answers. My views on wether or not games should be played is moot, save that it is quite risky. An immutable: Financial self interest will out.
Maximus Insight
Guest
the highest digital and streaming engagement of any code On what evidence is this absurd claim made? My bet, no evidence. Just something somebody asserted once and others grabbed on to
Sydneysider
Guest
There's no god given right for any sport to be professional and for any sportsperson to be professional, so if that means some NRL and AFL players salaries (already massively overpaid) have to get paid $400k per season instead of $700k then so be it. Without the sport, these guys wouldn't be earning any of that money. All the football codes will recover, but there will be some rationalisation of player salaries into the immediate future. I'd say at minimum a 20% reduction of average player salaries in the NRL and AFL.
Gyfox
Roar Rookie
The so-called “wastage of money” by the AFL is money that is growing Aussie Rules. Consistent growth in Qld & NSW as a result. That’s not wastage & the other codes would love to be able to pour such money into growth. And by having a truly national competition, AFL gets more money from the media rights.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Talk of closing the competition is ridiculous. The CV-19 numbers and percentages prove players are in an extremely low risk age bracket and even if they get sick, like the flu would miss 1-2 games. After their 2 weeks they are immune with no further risk. Let them play and let them entertain the rest of the community and give some joy to an already depressed society. This would also help for a quicker recovery of the game and the competition. A second step would be for clubs to be allowed to have 150 of their member-fans attend, spread around the stadium at designated seating spots. The 150 could be allocated to members. Maybe each member only allocated 1 game to attend. It would avoid the totally empty stadium and give a little bit of supporter noise.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
I didn't say everywhere I said Perth because it has a large fast growing population and already has a Rugby League competition which would become a producer of future players to replace the original imported players. Perth has a bigger RL competition than Melbourne so it could support an NRL team.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
#Nick On what do you base the 2 million participation for the 'Football' (I take it that's the FFA/A-League). Given we don't yet have the 2019 annual reports dropping (and granted there's a bit of a distraction around the codes to getting that done); it means we've got the 2018 numbers to go by. The FFA was running a total number of 1.85 million. That AFL a number of 1.65 million. But you referred to the registered player base. For the FFA, between Youth, Senior and MiniRoos (jnrs and intro program) the FFA had 527,650. The AFL via Juniors, Youth, Senior & Vets and Auskick (intro program) had 592,679. Note - the FFA when it suits proclaim MiniRoos as the countries biggest 'introductory program' (boasting numbers bigger than Auskick) - - but, they also try to proclaim it as their junior outdoor competition. Now - that's all without delving into the school competitions (wouldn't count school 'programs'); where the AFL proclaims 328,760 vs the FFA 270,902. Schools though opens a scope for double dipping on individuals who may also be playing club. And do you know how the FFA got to 1.85 million?? They counted coaches/refs and volunteers to the total and they had an astounding 550,495 from "Community Events & Promotional Experiences"......wtf!!!! In 2016 the FFA had 157K under "Tournaments & Events". This 'wild card' category changed to a far more fluid label and grew 400K over 2 years. Anyway. All I'm doing it challenging some of the assumptions.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
#peter ostle Jeff Kennett was effectively giving away land to any 'developer' to encourage them into the Docklands urban renewal project. It wasn't being done for favouritism but instead for pragmatic necessity. The key there is that the private developers of Docklands stadium was NOT the AFL. And with private ownership model then the only way the AFL might benefit in the short/medium term was via any potential savings passed on to them as the major tenant. Kennett had a state with no money and was desperate to encourage activity in that precinct. He originally planned for a rectangular stadium but couldn't attract the private money. The stadium was to be the 'draw card' - it was a crucial trigger project. The AFL was not to be owner until 2025 - so over 25 years the up front benefit to the developers was likely to be pretty diluted - and with change of ownership along the way - I'm not sure how much has been 'transferable' to the AFL now in their capacity as owner/operator.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
Ironically of course - the FFA is the football body most reliant upon Govt funding. Ostensibly because of their need to maintain international squads etc etc. But - in a free market economy I don't think "national interest" really carries any weight in a sporting sense.
Paul2
Guest
$60m p/a for non-AFL events? That seems a bit optimistic to me.