List reductions are coming. Everything that’s being said makes it seem like an inevitability.
While the reduction will likely be over the space of a few years, it will dramatically change the way list management operates.
The commonly mooted number is 35, down from the current AFL list size which is around 45.
Last year a quarter of clubs used 35 or more players at senior level, clearly showing that the current rules surrounding list management will need to change to fit this new reality.
The AFL’s recent additions of the Pre-season Supplemental Period (SSP) and Mid-season Draft, which allows clubs to add players to their list throughout the pre-season or in the middle of the season, will only become more important and needs to be expanded upon.
Currently a club needs a spare list spot to use one of these systems, which is created by either deliberately leaving a spot open after the draft and trade period or by putting a player on the long-term injury list.
But with smaller list sizes, teams need the ability to add players to their list at any time throughout the season and cover for short-term injuries.
A model similar to the NBA and NFL might need to de adopted, where teams have the flexibility to bring in players and sign them to different types of contracts (an equivalent to ten-day contracts in the NBA for example).
The biggest issue is the difference in pay between the AFL and international codes, meaning that there might need to be guarantees or protections put in for state league players who are signed throughout the season, especially if they are moving interstate.
List reductions will also transform the practices list departments use when deciding whether to recruit or re-sign a player.
For footballers currently in the AFL system, veterans, injury-plagued or depth/fringe players are the most likely to be affected.
Champion players like David Mundy, Kade Simpson and Shaun Burgoyne might have decisions on their playing futures taken out of their hands.
David Mundy of the Dockers (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Clubs usually sign or keep players who struggle to get on the park due to injuries, current examples include Ben Jacobs, Lynden Dunn and Harley Bennell, but with smaller list sizes the decision to re-sign these types of players will be harder to make.
We saw examples of these scenarios in the lead-up to the mid-season draft last year, where Heath Grundy and Shaun Grigg both retired to free up list spots for their respective clubs.
Jaeger O’Meara’s comments on decreasing list sizes also stand out, where he said reductions could be beneficial because of a current dilution of talent in the AFL.
In theory this is correct, as smaller list sizes should mean that only the best players are in the league.
But there is also the fact that it is hard to justify giving someone a list spot, no matter their talent, if they cannot consistently take the field.
This was a situation O’Meara was in once during his career, where he did not play a game in 2015 and 2016 and only played six in 2017.
This is not to suggest that O’Meara would not currently have a spot in the AFL if there were smaller list sizes while he was injured, with his talent and skill he would have a place on virtually every club’s list during that time.
Jaeger O’Meara of the Hawthorn Hawks runs with the ball during the AFL JLT Community Series match between the Western Bulldogs and the Hawthorn Hawks at Mars Stadium on March 3, 2018 in Ballarat, Australia. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
This is to highlight that clubs might not be able to carry injury-plagued players in this new environment even if they are talented, because a spot on an AFL’s team list will become so finite.
When looking at drafting and recruiting, footballers who need to develop (a “project player”) and players from outside the system are the most likely to be affected.
Clubs could take fewer risks when drafting a player, focussing on how physically and mentally prepared they are for the rigours of the AFL.
Stories like Mason Cox’s and Mark Blicavs’, products of the Category B Rookie system who do not have a football background, might become rarer or even disappear.
While it’s impossible to know the full extent and form list reductions will take, its seemingly inevitable arrival will massively change the current AFL system.
Macca
Roar Rookie
As an example of the fixture Carlton lose games against North, St Kilda, Bulldogs Sydney & Richmond - I would think they would be decent chances of winning 4 of those. The Tigers lose games against Carlton, Brisbane, West Coast, the Giants and Collingwood - not only are they dropping off 4 real danger games but they could have 3 less interstate trips
Macca
Roar Rookie
It is hard to tell why but if I was to guess it would come down to expectation - the blues players aren't going out "expecting" to win so they get late in quarters and start hoping to hold any gains made during the quarter whereas a team like the Tigers don't accept they have done enough a push hard for the line. It also become a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy - once the first late goal comes the heads drop a bit and the second goal gets a bit easier. The short season will favour last years 8 more than anyone outside it. With everyone playing each other once the lower sides lose the advantage of getting to play the lower sides twice while the top sides play each other more. I am happy that the blues should get McKay and Betts back and only be 1 game off top spot!
shifty
Roar Rookie
Yea I understand that too, I'd like to think that players would be more creative with how they move the ball if they know that if they get caught with it then it's holding the ball. No prior opportunity, if you choose to pick it up and get tackled it's a free kick. Bring back the toe pokes and knock ons. 50m hack off the ground because your opponent is on your hammer. Not pick up the ball, get tackled, no prior, ball up, zone resets etc.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Interesting Macca. Any theories on why? Youth only able to resist the bigger bodies for so long? If this cursed season ever happens Macca it’s on for young and old. Short season, some interstate clubs playing out of Cavill Avenue, it’s ripe for a flag to be stolen from outside last years eight.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Peter - the blues have had a terrible record at being scored against in red time, and in round 1 with shortened quarters they were once again heavily outscored in red time.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Don’t want a stop start game over umpired either shifty. Just create space with less bodies. If 16 a side doesn’t do it trial 15, 14...eventually the coaches will not be able to stop the flow.
shifty
Roar Rookie
Well that's easy, a yellow card is akin to a few hours in the drunk tank at the local police station. You've been a twat so you can sit here and think about what you've done.
shifty
Roar Rookie
Cmon PTS get the umpire's to pay all the free kicks not just ones they feel like and congestion will ease to.
Seymorebutts
Guest
Thats an interesting one isnt it. West Coast won a flag in their 6th year, Freo 25 years in havent done it once. Collingwood and Melbourne were perennial grand final opponents up until 1964 , since then the Dees have fallen into the abyss , yet the Pies for the last 56 years have been consistently been putting good teams on the park. It cant be pure coincidence or luck surely? It must come down to the weighted average of all the decisions people running those clubs have made over the years. Which is a long winded way of saying the Pies and Eagles made smarter decisions for longer than their rivals. Which is why I hate the draft and the salary cap, let excellence shine, let mediocrity wither and die.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I would say Leigh simply meant there would be less time to create a large margin Macca. Nonetheless it would be interesting to look at a truly awful footy side such as Gold Coast and compare score differentials for 0-20 minutes and then beyond.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Matthews also endorsed playing shorter quarters because "would it create closer games if you had shorter quarters. Does the fatigue late in quarters mean the stronger team scores heavily? So would you get closer games, which is what we all want to see?" Matthews said. So is it better to reduce fatigue or increase fatigue?
Macca
Roar Rookie
How much difference did 666 make to scoring from bounces? Ruckmen will simply try to keep the ball as close to their feet as possible, tie everything up to get a secondary bounce and nothing will change. As for having less players behind the ball, that isn't true they will just take out the 2 most forward players out of their structure.
Nick
Roar Guru
In fact, the red card is exactly akin to the fabric of our legal system. A red card is the equivalent of being held on remand. You get red carded...off you trot. You can then let the judiciary mid week determine whether you are guilty or not, much like how an accused criminal can then prove innocence through the courts. If you are guilty, then the red was entirely justified. If not, you walk free and play next week, much like the accused walks free and leaves the court room via the front door, not the transfer van. A yellow card, I grant is harder to find a comparable linkage to the legal system...probably the only comparison is heavy handed policing - a rather well-established annoyance of the police forces in Australia! Call it a tie! :)
Nick
Roar Guru
I'm going to chuck my hand up and say I made an accounting error. I absolutely did not mean to say $5m. I meant 500,000 which is 10 x 50k. Oops. But if $150k is right, then there is a 1.5m saving over x years in addition to the wages.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
For a club that doesn’t travel much Collingwood is ranked by champion data as one of the Top 5 worst injury counts for the past 7 years.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I know through the draft feeder competitions clubs quote $150k per player in costs
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Leigh Matthews endorsed 16 per side and knows a bit more about footy than you or I being an all time great player and coach I would’ve thought.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
But it’s still less players available Macca to get behind the ball. Imagine each bounce with 6x4x6 after a goal?
Macca
Roar Rookie
How did 16 a side work in the old VFA Peter? Over recent years the AFL has tried numerous things that were supposed to "open the game up in the last quarter" none of them have worked because coaches don't want it to happen. The more tired the players get the more coaches will get them to play behind the ball, if they can't get up and down the ground they will simply sacrifice scoring.
Jorge of Brisvegas
Roar Rookie
I see as usual, list size debate has descended into the usual swill of, get rid of expansion teams, change or never change the rules and tribalism. But Spruce Moose was spot on with his explanation of why list sizes, then the thread went tangential. List size and soft cap reduction (coach size) actually mean you can distill the product to keep it relatively the same but with reducing up to 50 million / club output. This is clearly the most efficient cost wise and least disruptive method game wise that can be delivered. I think this is smart by the AFL and will allow the game to recover naturally without awkward noticeable changes that would affect sponsor or broadcast revenue. The real issue that has been touched upon a little is which teams does this favour the most ? Usually it may be those up the top who are veteran heavy with a big drop off between stars and development players. However, due to current trends of top clubs being smarter ie Richmond , West Coast particularly, they are not “over - veteraned” And have a significant quantity of young players in their first 22 . They have some of the best coaches and systems already in place . So trimming this should be easier than clubs who are scrambling, mid phase in their off field / on field ‘chase for the silverware’. If anything, I think it will be harder for teams below the bottom 4 to stay there and more dynasties , premiers being out of only 3 clubs for a few years The only thing , like in any season , is injury. These changes will perhaps affect rehab and obviously less players to bring in who know the system. Richmond and West Coast have done this in premiership years with Rance, Riewoldt and Naitanui , Gaff.(suspension). I suspect a Tigers / Eagles grand final will be more likely than less following these changes.