With 5 rounds of the 2020 NRL Premiership now played, there’s one blatantly obvious question that needs asking: where exactly did all the talent go?
Fear not, this is not another whinge about the game, for I’ll leave that to the overqualified experts in the field of negativity, like Kent, Rothfield, etc.
Nor is this an observation that the quality of play has been down and that the players are lacking match fitness. We should expect a little bit of rust considering the layoff in playing and training due to a global pandemic. And personally, I’ve been impressed that a number of teams look as sharp as they do.
No, this has more to do with looking at the bottom of the ladder, and seriously pondering why there are so many subpar teams in the competition.
Of course, in a competition of sixteen teams, there are always going to be some cellar-dwellers fighting for the wooden spoon. It’s simple mathematics that someone has to finish at the bottom of the ladder.
What’s troubling is just how many teams feel like they’ll be in contention for that booby prize.
Gazing at the ladder, it’s entirely feasible that the current bottom eight teams will be the bottom eight teams come the end of the season. Not only would it not shock me if that happens, I believe it will. You could probably substitute in Souths for the Cowboys, but otherwise I’ll confidently go ahead and predict it right now.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak might be alright, but the Dogs are terrible. (AAP Image/Brendon Thorne)
The bottom teams aren’t just playing bad, they are bad. Such a predicament gives the impression that the NRL is currently spreading the talent it has a little too thin.
Full transparency: the original premise of this piece was that the NRL should cull at least two teams to bolster the overall depth and talent in the competition. However I quickly realised this was short-sighted and nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction. So after cooling off on that hot take, I instead asked myself if this is a genuine problem.
In previous years, I’ve looked at the clubs that have missed out on finals play and thought the competition must be deep and cut-throat, because some very good footy teams have been on the outside looking in at the business end of the season.
Yet in 2020, I peer at the bottom of the ladder and am thankful eight truly dreadful teams will not be qualifying for the finals, such is the unattractiveness and poor standard of play they would bring to the table.
If – for example – the Titans, Warriors and Bulldogs all merged to form one team, are we confident that squad would even make the finals? I’m deadly serious.
Try the exercise at home, and tell me if any possible team you can construct from those three clubs is an absolute guarantee to make the top eight. I certainly couldn’t do it with any degree of confidence.
That’s, um, not ideal.
Talent concerns are certainly not new in rugby league. When I was younger, much was made of the exodus of the number of older stars who, year after year, would leave for England for one last big pay cheque. Big names like Allan Langer and Bradley Clyde would earn themselves a nice little retirement kicker by playing out their twilight years for teams like Warrington and Leeds.
Newspapers at the time would always lament the number of talented players plying their trade overseas, and create imaginary teams made up of the UK exports. It made for entertaining reading, and you couldn’t help but imagine how good the league would be if all those individuals were still in Australia.
Yet the honest truth is that it didn’t harm the local product all that much. The league was still deep and talented.
Moving forward an era, and the next ‘talent issue’ for rugby league was rugby union poaching their brightest stars. Mat Rogers, Wendell Sailor and Lote Tuqiri headlined a number of code-hoppers, and rugby almost pulled off the biggest coup of all, when they went within a whisker of signing Andrew Johns, arguably the greatest rugby league player of all time.
Remarkably, although the doomsayers were out in full force, rugby league was just fine, and continued to churn out quality football and quality players.
Fast forward to 2020, and can we even really blame the English Super League or rugby union for the talent dearth? Sure, in order to bolster the teams struggling to pester the wins column, it would be nice to get a few ex-pats home, or to poach a couple of rah-rah’s best, but I’m not convinced they’re really the problem.
Rugby league has a talent issue, just not where you think. Rather than looking on the playing field, we should turn our attention to off the field. Specifically, to management, where the majority of the bottom clubs are simply not very well run.
Whoever has final saying on recruitment and handling the player contracts at the Dragons should lose their job well before Paul McGregor does.
Paul McGregor. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Likewise, the Bulldogs are still paying the price for poor salary cap management and back-ended contracts from years ago.
The Tigers brass seem completely incapable of signing the one marquee player that will push them over the top. Or at least out of ninth spot.
The Broncos gambled in punting popular and legendary coach Wayne Bennett for Anthony Seibold, and have been a basket case ever since.
Cronulla decided it was a good idea to give Shaun Johnson a massive contract, and that’s before we even mention the litany of other management concerns at that club.
It’s always easy to blame the players or coaches, because they’re the most visible example to focus on, yet if you look at the struggling teams, there’s a consistent thread: they’re not very well run and have made some very questionable decisions.
Sure, the rosters aren’t all that good, but maybe the heat should be hotter on who, or whom, put them together in the first place?
The Barry
Roar Guru
It’s worth thinking about but one problem is see is, say a team is down by ten points with three minutes to go. They score, but then instead of getting the ball back to have one last attacking raid, they have to kick off to the other team who can take a lazy set out of their own end I guess you have to weigh up the momentum break issue you’ve raised versus the potential for a spoiler ending...
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
The Knights are a good example of a club has recruited their way out of trouble from an apparently weak position. I actually think the best place for a player to go is often a club at the wrong end of the table like the Knights , Manly , Eels and Raiders were. The Cows, Sharks and Saints looked like good clubs to go to a couple of years back but a club on the slide is a very ordinary place to spend a few years. Even the Broncos could be a great place to go to now even ahead of the Storm because I suspect their upside in the next few years could be higher. Sounds silly but I said the same about Manly over the Saints a couple of years back when Manly was considered as perhaps the worst club to sign with.
Greg
Roar Pro
agreed it all comes down to recruitment, but, the better performing clubs are typically in a better position to recruit as players will take unders for a better performing club and/or demand overs for a poor performing club. This essentially means as a general rule the disparity between clubs will remain whilst good/poor club decisions will see one club rise and fall each year.
Greg
Roar Pro
"I think maybe there needs to be more (skill based) contests for possession" Before we start changing contests for possession, I think we need to change the rule to scorers take the kick off. I feel to many times ive seen an early set error, followed by a couple restarts. Then a try conceded. Sometimes throw in a goal line drop out along the way and it feels a team doesn't get an attacking set for almost 10 minutes. Then when they do it shouldn't come as a surprise they cant do much with the ball, often making more errors. By simply changing who kicks off after a try perhaps we can break this trend and have a few less one sided score lines?
Adz Sportz
Roar Guru
The NRL need to kick rugby union while its down and recruit a few of their players. Raid Super league too... plenty of good ones over there.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
You were right . . . I did enjoy! And you're 100% right - the lack of data, analytics and analysis in rugby league is quite staggering. Using the comparison of the NBA, where is the data that shows defenders Corey Norman will put up a bomb 92% of the time he goes right on the fifth tackle inside 20 metres (and that the kick will go out on the full . . . jokes). The sooner teams are run by smart people, the better.
astro
Roar Rookie
To make an analogy which I know you'll enjoy Ryan, the current NRL reminds me of the NBA five years ago or so, in terms of too many 'dumb' teams making bad decisions, prior to the analytics movement changing the way the game is played, and the way player value is assessed. When I watch the NRL and listen to the way it's covered, there's too much reliance on the 'eye test'...The league is littered with over-payed players who 'look' great, but always seem to under-perform, and yet get by on reputation or flashes of brilliance. And like the NBA, the decision-makers at many clubs seem to be ex-players. Again, in the NBA we saw how badly this can go...some ex-players prove to be great coaches and GMs, but many tend to look at the 'upside' of players and their potential, more than their actual performance.
Herewegoagain
Guest
No Juniors = No Seniors. It was , and is , only a matter of time.
The Hurricane
Guest
5 years ago nobody wanted to play for Canberra, Parramatta were cheating the cap, and Newcastle were in the midst of 3(4?) spoons in a row because of the absoulute dumpster fire they were left as after Tinkler/Bennett. 5 years later they are all vying for a premiership. For all their lack of talent in the managment department they all turned it round. If you told me in 2014 The Raiders would make a GF within 5 years I wouldn't have believed you, who knows, that could be the Titans in 5 years from now?
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
So there have no talented players since 1985?
P Air
Guest
Totally agree with you Aiden regarding the Titans - total waste
Whooshka
Guest
All the talent left the league back in the early 1980s.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Can we just do the end of the season instead?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Well, in 2015: - Canberra were 2 wins out of the top 4 - Parramatta were 2 wins out from finishing 7th - And Newcastle - despite winning the wooden spoon - were 2 wins out of the 8 (and looking at their roster, it wasn't completely horrible!)
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
*whispering: it's not that great of a side, is it?!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Totally agree. there does need to be market correction with Milford, Hunt, Johnson, etc, are getting that type of money.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Happy birthday Snorky!
ppa19696837
Roar Rookie
I wrote in another response that the key is finding that 5 or so players that will make the rest look better... your gun half and fullback, your hard 3 forwards, your solid or better hooker.... get them right and you fill the rest with workers and development players...it's just so hard to get that first group right. But I do look at well coached teams and it is the coachable/training stuff that they seem to always do better..... - Kick chase - Solid defence working as a unit - Bodies in motion in attack where decoy runners don't impede defenses for example - Generally look fitter. - General focus and attitude and play with calmness. These are simple things that the top teams seem to do.. I do know Trent Robo says that he likes to bring in smart players and players that can attack and then they teach them defence!
jamesb
Roar Guru
If you look at McGregor at the Dragons, he has been head coach for six years. Which young players has he developed? Many of the representative players started their careers elsewhere. Maybe JdB. But then you look at the younger players like Dufty, Lomax, Sailor, Saab, Host, Lawrie, and a few others. They are all talented and yet are not regular first graders. Why is it so? Imagine if Bellamy, Hasler, Robinson or Bennett had those players under their wing?
The Hurricane
Guest
If you wrote the artical just five years ago, you could have easily substitued Canberra, Parramatta and Newcastle into that "simply not very well run" catergory. Bleh.