After last night’s four-goal loss to Collingwood, the Adelaide Crows are just six games away from the end of a season which, if possible, they’d like to see the finish of even more quickly.
That’s about the time of year that clubs and the media often start turning their eye more and more to the moves that will play out across the offseason – and if you know me, you know I’m jumping on that bandwagon as soon as possible.
We don’t know for sure when the trade period will be held this year but it’s drawing nearer, and even as that happens it remains unclear what will happen to restricted free agent Brad Crouch.
He was reportedly looking for a move to a new home at the end of last year and nothing has happened in the time since then to suggest circumstances have changed.
Crouch was asked a few weeks ago whether he’d be willing to move if it was the best thing for Adelaide’s rebuild and had this to say:
“If the club wanted me… to walk, it’s going to be really tough. I’d probably have to do it, because that’s the best place for the club to go.”
AFL players basically never come out and say they’re leaving – but that’s about as clear a telegraph of Crouch’s (and Adelaide’s) intentions as I can imagine.
The motivation for Adelaide lies in the fact that Crouch is a restricted free agent and, if he were to attract Band 1 compensation, that would see them hold the first two picks in the draft.
They are anchored to the bottom with six matches left to play and given their woeful percentage would need to win four of them to be any chance of moving above 18th. It’s not going to happen.
(Photo by Daniel Kalisz/Getty Images)
But can Crouch earn the Crows top-tier compensation? The club will be helped by the fact that Crouch is 26, about as young as a free agent can possibly be – which in the AFL’s free agency formula provides a boost to possible compensation.
However, he would also need to get a significant payday from his new club, a scenario which looks more difficult to piece together.
Crouch was linked most prominently last year to the Gold Coast Suns, with whom he reportedly approached twice before the end of the trade period in the hopes of striking a deal.
In November last year the Suns were reportedly confident of signing Crouch at the end of season 2020, but more recent reports suggest their interest in him has cooled.
And that makes sense – the arrival of Hugh Greenwood and emergence of Matt Rowell mean the Gold Coast are now as stocked for inside midfielders as any side in the competition, to the point that good talents like Brayden Fiorini and Will Brodie have struggled to get a game.
Crouch would still probably be best 22 at the Suns but would he be all that much of an improvement on whoever he pushes out? And is that improvement worth the pricetag Crouch would command?
It’s also worth nothing that newest Queensland club is a more exciting destination for players than 12 monhts ago. If they have the assets to go pursue a mature player, they’ll have more options to choose from and can probably find a better fit.
St Kilda and Geelong were linked briefly to Crouch last year, but both quickly baulked at his reported asking price of $1 million per season.
Crouch would be well aware now that his asking price was unrealistic and the possible contract on offer is only going to be shrunk further by whatever changes occur to the salary cap come the end of the year.
Will the Saints or the Cats show renewed interest at a more reasonable price? It was reported earlier this week that St Kilda will be targetting quality midfield depth come the offseason.
Geelong’s next move is less clear. The Cats are again one of the oldest teams in the league but also one of the best, and they hold three picks in the first round of this year’s draft.
Will those picks go towards topping up with more mature talent, or seeding the list with youngsters? Last year’s draft – where they took Cooper Stephens and Sam De Koning in the first round – suggests the latter is more likely.
Another consideration has to be that for clubs who want to add an inside midfielder to their list, Crouch is just one of many options who might be on the table.
Angus Brayshaw, Ollie Wines and Connor Blakely have all been thrown up at some point. Jack Viney is a restircted free agent. Lesser-known young guns like Jye Caldwell, Jackson Hately, Charlie Constable and the aforementioned Brodie and Fiorini could all be gettable.
Angus Brayshaw (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
A club looking to add an inside mid this year might well be spoiled for choice and a player with Crouch’s injury record – he’s sidelined with a hamstring right now – may fall down the pecking order.
If no suitor willing to pay Crouch a Band-1 level contract emerges and instead he can only earn Adelaide compensation at the end of the first round, they’ll face a decision over whether to accept that, or force a trade.
Having to cough up a first round pick will only make Crouch less appealing and I suspect that whichever club does pursue him might work with Adelaide to ensure Band 1 compensation is achieved.
Length of deal is known to not be a major factor in the free agency compensation formula, so a club could potentially offer Crouch a short-term, big-money deal on the proviso that he’ll then extend for a cheap price further down the track.
But is there a team out there so serious about Brad Crouch as to make that deal happens? Only time will tell.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Then you needn't answer.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Well Don, as I said I don’t work for Carlton so don’t know what their plans are.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You are not getting it as demonstrated by your ultra-defensiveness of Carlton when there is no criticism of them. It was a question. Everyone knows that there are reductions across the board. That is not the question.
Cracka
Roar Rookie
From what I understand he has strong long term relationship with people at Essendon, as for Carlton looking at him last season it was because they heard Wines management had reached out to those at Bomber land. I think Wines will stay at Port... IF they have a really good finals series and they are placed well to do so.
2dogs
Roar Rookie
At this stage I agree but hope he proves us both wrong
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
What do you mean I am not getting the issue? As I pointed out clubs don’t know what the next few years are going to be like and what they can do regarding players contracts. Why are you just focused on Martin – sure his contract is heavily front loaded and there is possibly a few other players the same. Do you think GWS & Sydney can do anything regarding Cameron & Franklins heavily back ended contract that has them on $1.5M & $1.4m this year? Is every Freo player on a standard contract or is there some that are front loaded or back ended? I am sure if the clubs can reimburse players in the future they will try. I am not employed by Carlton so I cannot tell you what they might be planning.
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Dont understand the Essendon choice for Ollie if that is correct,they play alot of games at Etihad under the roof dont they?The ball pings around that ground like a slingshot,Skills arent Ollies strenght,if it rained every game Ollie probably wins the Brownlow,that is his strenght,when the game becomes a slog.Wines and Hinkley are super close,If Hinkley resigns with port Wines could still stay
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Hahaha that' a joke right :stoked:
13th Man
Roar Rookie
This is in many ways, the worst year for Adelaide to have a few really early picks due to how compromised this draft is with Father Sons and NGA picks. I know I was reading that something like 10 plus clubs have NGA picks that are likely top 30 players. I know the Doggies have the potential pick 1 and for example Freo have 3 or 4 players that could be NGA picks as well. Hopefully for the Crows sake, they can find a couple of guns that aren't already tied to other clubs, with the lack of NAB league as well it'll all be pretty speculative.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Fair enough, I haven't followed him or Port Adelaide particularly closely but I've always thought of him in that second tier of midfielders, not a Fyfe, Neale or Cripps but still a very solid player. I guess you have done extremely well out of the draft in recent years, and with Butters, Duursma and Rozee amongst others starting to become quality players, the reliance on Wines is perhaps less than it once was, and Boak is a gun still.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
McGovern is a serious dud, I wouldn't touch him
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
I'm torn as well, but I think he's going wether we like it or not, might be worth trading before he comes out of contract, have a look at my reply the 13th below, to long to re-write. I'm looking at Angus Brayshaw, clearly not rated at Demonland, might be a like for like replacement.
olrac
Guest
If I were Brisbane list management I would be chasing Levi Casboult pretty hard. Think he would be a great fit for their forward line and relief ruck.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
You are not getting the issue. It's not a COVID thing, it's a Jack Martin fairness thing. If things return to normal and wages are restored, will he get some of the big money back or will he just return to the next part of his contract on $450k-$600k?
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Who knows? How long is this COVID thing happening? How long will some State borders be closed? How will the AFL survive if this continues for a couple of years? As I said all players are down around 28%, so should a club reimburse just 1 player or could they afford too? What decisions are the AFL going to make on list size and salary cap total? Would they allow clubs to go over it to make up the 28%? Too many questions need answering before players know if they are going to get that extra money.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
See my other post
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Despite what Slane says it's not that he failed to take us to the promised land. I've actually worked for a company that Wines has a stake in, and was treated as poorly as I've ever been treated in a workplace. I know some of the people that he is in business/friendships with and to put it mildly, they're enormous flogs, so there's a personal mistrust there, albeit indirectly, but you hang around with poo and it can be a bit sticky. There's also the fact he shopped himself around and just seems to put himself before the group, things like getting the sulks when he was upset he didn't come straight back into the team after his shoulder injury and arguing with Ken at half time. I also think apart from a few good games he's been poor since his second year and keeping other players out of the team that could have been developing, we pushed Boak to half forward for three years when he should have been in the middle at all times which hurts as well. Before about 3 weeks ago he couldn't hit a barn door with a banana and I'm not a fan of footy players who can't kick, it's a major part of their job, it would be like me being crap at cooking steaks. I just feel like he's got one foot out the door and if he doesn't want to be there then let him go, but at the same time I expect big trade value for him which we won't get if he is an RFA. If he wants to stay and buy into team culture then cool, but not as the protected species he has been.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
This is not a criticism of Carlton. It's a poor Jack comment. He's certainly not able to buy the house he would have when he wanted to because of the cut backs. My question is will he ever see that part of his contract again?
Slane
Guest
Port Adelaide fans all got off Wines when he failed to single-handedly drag them to the promised land over the last few years. They were all ready to trade him out last season because he wasn't Fyfe/Cripps/Danger/Dusty. Now they are all torn because their team is finally having a good year and he is killing it.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Brendon, I'm genuinely curious as to why you are shipping Wines off? As a side just entering your premiership window wouldn't you be wanting Wines to stay at all costs? You aren't rebuilding, trading away a good midfielder in his prime for Draft picks isn't necessary now surely?