The Essendon Bombers have gone fifteen seasons without a finals victory – their last coming in 2004 – and if their performance against St Kilda on Sunday is any indication, 2020 is looking like it will be No.16.
With six games left in their season the club sit in 11th spot on the ladder with a percentage of 86.1, the fifth-worst of any side in the AFL.
Their remaining matches are against Richmond, West Coast, Geelong and Port Adelaide – four sides currently in the AFL’s top six – as well as Hawthorn and Melbourne.
Simply put, a finals appearance from here would require them to not just to engineer a stunning reversal of form, but to do it against some of the best sides in the competition – unlikely to say the least.
That’s a poor result for a side whose recent list management decisions have publicly broadcast their intentions to contend for the premiership.
Essendon haven’t taken a first-round selection at the draft due to 2016, trading away three consecutive top picks in the pursuit of mature players like Dylan Shiel and Devon Smith.
Taken individually most of those moves have been successful. Smith has won a best-and-fairest at the club, Adam Saad is an All Australian threat, Stringer has played plenty of good football.
Shiel has delivered everything Essendon could’ve reasonably expected of him. He’s probably not living up to the price tag of two first-round picks, but who does?
Good individual decisions however can still be part of a bad strategy, and Essendon’s focus on mature recruits in recent years has put them in a no man’s land where it’s not clear what direction they’re going in.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Two things in particular have undone them. The first is that they probably overestimated where their list was at off the back of making the finals in 2017.
It was a great moment for the club to return to September footy after winning the spoon the year beforehand, but an underrated factor in their performance that year was the contributions of some soon-to-retire veterans.
Jobe Watson and James Kelly both played important roles during the year – Kelly finishing top-ten in the best and fairest – but called an end to their careers after the elimination final loss.
The second is the injuries of Joe Daniher. When they started targeting mature players at the end of 2017, he had played 45 games for 108 goals in the previous two seasons – in two and a half years since, he’s played 11 for 15.
No doubt part of the impetus for the pursuit of mature players would’ve been the desire to build a team around Daniher and strike at the premiership during his peak years, an opportunity that simply hasn’t materialised.
And no matter how deep heads are buried in the sand it now seems inevitable that it’s simply not going to. Daniher appears destined to change colours at the end of the year and has probably already played his last game for the club.
That leaves Essendon in an awkward position: having a mature core that is competitive when fit but probably not enough so to contend, but only a middling youth contingent compared to the wider competition.
The development of Andrew McGrath and Jordan Ridley have been probably the best stories to follow for Bombers fans this year, but no other side in the league has seen fewer games played by players 20 and under in 2020.
2020 has been a difficult year on the injury front – on Sunday they were missing Dyson Heppell, Orazio Fantasia, Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Jake Stringer and of course Joe Daniher – and also ‘managing’ the likes of Devon Smith, Tom Bellchambers and Aaron Francis.
There’s no doubt that given a better run with injury they would be a better side, quite likely in or around that fifth-eight bracket once again.
Joe Daniher (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos)
But is there enough emerging talent on the list to do better than that? Right now the situation’s uncertain, and it will only become more so when Daniher departs.
That leaves Essendon with two options: top-up again and hope that whatever set of mature recruits comes next proves to be the one that makes their present malaise a thing of the past.
Or, return to the draft and follow the path that’s more likely to eventually produce results, but will be asking for yet more patience from a fan-base who’ve already given fifteen years of it.
Both paths have some merit, neither is entirely appealing. That’s the awkward position Essendon find themselves in: stuck in the middle, a place AFL clubs often find it hard to get out of.
Can they fare better than past sides who’ve spent time floundering about in footy’s no man’s land? Only time will tell.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
PT your comments concur with my thoughts exactly and I don't watch Essendon much, so I can imagine how frustrated you must be as a supporter. Good post.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Fair point Jutsie, but I think Peter's point is that the AA selectors overestimated Merrett and Heppell. Heppell was a good player who was selected in AA team a bit eagerly - I suspect he wouldn't have gained so much attention from them if it weren't for his hair. But Merrett in particular, is not an AA worthy selection. He is good for fantasy footy scores, but not good for team success - doesn't put his head over the ball or body on the line when the most basic questions are asked of him and doesn't chase or tackle. I'm not convinced other top four teams would be keen to have him in their side.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Yep, and SOS deserves a pat on the back for that.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Essendon recruit blokes who don't tackle and apply pressure - Dylan Shiel, Stringer - and already have too many blokes the same, like Merret, Zaharakis. Either these blokes need to be coached differently, or they should be targeting different players. Apart from Tippa, there's very little pressure applied by Essendon forwards on defenders counter-attack. They also lack inside ball winners.
Josh
Expert
To be fair, my overall sentiment in those pieces was that they should keep investing in youth and target free agents (rather than spend draft picks on trading players in), which isn't really what they've done. Whether my strategy would've worked out any better, who knows.
Simoc
Guest
Worsfolds best coaching happens when he has twelve of the games best current players in his team. To me he is nearly the worst coach in the game and has been forever. His teams never show the structure of champion teams like Sheedy, Malthouse, Clarkson produced. Him and Longmire are old school. I've gotta think Cameron should have won a title by now with GWS but Bulldogs beat them narrowly in their best showing. Ratten was always good but we don't know how good yet. Buckley has all the backing in the world and comes up short but they entertain and we like seeing them lose. Essendon will be nobodies for years to come, a fate they deserve after the injecting scandal.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Never met a chad I liked, from the African country to the footballer. Note: I know the African nation is actual T’Chad
PT
Roar Rookie
Been a bomber fan for over 40 years. I love my team. But unfortunately we've been watching the same crap for over 15 yrs. A midfield that is too short, lacks stars, is inconsistent and doesn't hurt sides by breaking out of the middle and kick goals. With the exception of McGrath and Heppell,....Shiel, Merritt, Zaka etc go missing for too long in games and don't get the job done. Plenty of useless possessions though. A forward line that lacks quality, once again is inconsistent, cannot kick straight and generally does not put enough pressure on opposition backlines. With the exception of Stringer who is a gem when on, the others even Daniher play stupid football. Tippa is just not reliable at this stage. Our backline is our saving grace. Hooker, Hurley, Ambrose, Francis, Gleeson. And Saad & Ridley which are stars. Our new Ruckman Draper looks the goods. Not sure what our game plan is . But it looks to be going backwards. We play anything but direct, handball too much, don't chase and tackle enough and can't seem to take a contested mark. Even when we do get it in our forward line which can be quiet a lot, we try and pass it off because none of our fowards other than Stringer have the brains to calm down and kick it straight. We need to get rid of the following players immediately because they play dumb football and make too many mistakes. They include McKernan, Langford and yes the Irishman. And while we are at it we should flog off Daniher and Fantasia because it's not worth holding onto players that want to go. I don't really know how we can get out of this thing we're in, apart from replacing a 1/3 rd of our playing list. Unfortunately it will take another 5 yrs before real improvement. Sure we might make finals but we will not be a contender until we get some more A Graders and the majority of rest are B's.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Nah, the Chad loves nothing more than the Chad, which is a shame because he could be something special. We also got Duursma as well as Burton, huge win.
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Yep but the hawks could even end up winning that trade, though I think burton has been handy the loss of wingard was pretty big
Shane
Guest
What a load of rubbish. West coast had two picks and grabbed Brander and Allen at 13 and 21. Geelongs first was 22 with Fogarty and Kelly at 24. Typical west coast arrogance - they were going to pick him? What with? Liam Ryan's pick 26? Lol as if. You are living in a fantasy land. We all know how it went down. West Coast gambled that they could poach him before his two year contract was up, and lost. They badly underrated him over six seasons, and only when Geelong gave him opportunity did he blossom. West coast can claim nothing over Kelly.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
That's the obvious Don's expectation. Surely they'll back themselves.
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Blues post Malthouse are actually tracking nicely for a full rebuild. Prior to that I agree with Paul their strategy was all over the shop like Essendon’s
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
I'm those cases though they got them as bargains, you look now at O'Meara and Wingard and it's not going so well You gotta pay unders.
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Freo traded Chris Groom for Andrew McLeod. They were pretty awesome to deal with back then
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
Of the 2013/14/15 Hawthorn premiership sides, the players recruited in trades were, Hale, Frawley, Lake, Gunston, Gibson, Burgoyne, McEvoy & Guerra. The Hawks lacked a dominant key defender in 2012 but enticed Brian Lake to take a $200K pay cut in search of playing in a premiership team. Yes paying overs is not a recipe for sustained success.
Blitz
Guest
Two suits like WC grabbing Yeo for pick 28, Cripps for free and the 2018 draft haul of Allen, Ryan, Rioli, Brander etc? Earlier smart trading and drafting allowed WC to pinch a superstar for two end of first round picks - hardly overs when the dust settles on this trade in the coming years.
Blitz
Guest
The 2 x 1st rounders that WC paid the Cats for Kelly will probably be in the picks 16-20+ range when all is said and done. 2019 was #16. Not exactly a kings ransom if WC finish high on the ladder as expected and 2020 is more of a raffle year. WC were going to pick Kelly and the Cats knew it. WC couldn’t let Oscar Allen slip so they took him first and now we can see why. He’s 21, played 32 games, is the best young utility in the comp and hopefully has 10-13+ years ahead of him. WC did a great pick swap with GC in 2018 which left them with lots of future draft fat. at the time WC said that they fast-tracked at least 1 year ahead in that draft - hence the Kelly trade wasn’t as expensive to WC in the grand scheme of things as many think. WC thought through all of these variables very carefully. Bottom line, the Kelly trade was a win/win for both the Cats and WC. Kelly is a proven talent with 6-7 good years left in him.
RT
Roar Rookie
Don, you would trade him because it was likely he would walk a year later and you would get lesser compensation than the trade offered. If he still walks he may get a lower contract still and compensation might be worse again like a round 2.
Waddster
Roar Rookie
The heart of the Bombers issue is off field. Belief in messiahs and inability to say we were wrong. All players can play they just need leadership. Too many back room boys with opinions looking at you Tim Watson. Are the injuries bad luck or bad management?