Your AFL team's run home: Part 1

In this two-part analysis, I will detail the run home, predict where your team will finish at the end of the 18 rounds, and look at the projected first week of the finals series.

Part 1 will detail the teams currently in the top eight, while Part 2 will look at what chance the rest have of reaching the finals and whether the Adelaide Crows have a miracle in them to avoid the club’s first-ever wooden spoon.

Port Adelaide
Currently first (10 wins, 3 losses, 40 premiership points, 126.6 per cent)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (Oval), bye, North Melbourne (Metricon), Essendon (Oval), Collingwood (TBC)

With a finals berth all but secured, now is the time for Port Adelaide to really show their true colours.

The Power will look to boost their percentage, which is the second-best in the AFL only behind the Geelong Cats, with their next two matches against the 16th-placed Sydney Swans and 17th-placed North Melbourne on either side of a bye in Round 15.

They then finish off against Essendon and Collingwood, two sides still in the hunt for the finals, with the match against the Bombers to be played at home and a venue for the match against the Pies still to be decided.

While Ken Hinkley’s side should start favourites in at least their next two matches, they can expect some serious challenges from the Bombers and Pies, who sit in 12th and seventh, with the former quickly slipping away from the elite eight.

I have them finishing first, becoming the first team since Essendon in 2000 to spend the entire season on top of the ladder.

Predicted finish: first (15 wins, 3 losses, 60 premiership points)

Brisbane Lions
Currently second (10 wins, 3 losses, 40 premiership points, 117.4 per cent)
Matches to play: bye, Collingwood (Gabba), Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Sydney Swans (Cazaly’s), Carlton (TBC)

The Lions’ percentage could have been so much larger had they managed to kick straighter in the majority of their matches this season.

They have the second-best attack in the competition, but have been notoriously inaccurate, winning their past two matches despite kicking one goal fewer than North Melbourne and St Kilda.

But Brisbane have emerged as the biggest winners of the revamped fixture brought about by COVID-19, having played outside of their home state just three times (once in Melbourne and twice in Sydney).

While they will remain in Queensland until the end of the season, they’ll still have to hop on a plane when they travel to Cairns to face the Sydney Swans in the penultimate round.

They’ll also have to face Carlton, who by then could still be in with a chance to break into the top eight, in the final round at a venue that is still to be determined, though it’s expected that the match will be played at the Gabba.

Beforehand, they will enjoy the week off before they face Collingwood – the last team to beat the Lions at the Gabba in a regular-season home match – in a Friday night blockbuster, while they’ll also face the Gold Coast Suns in a mid-week QClash, also at home.

While the Lions should start favourites to win each, they’ll also have to hope that Port slips up at some point to finish with the minor premiership for the first time.

Predicted finish: second

(Photo by Jono Searle/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Geelong Cats
Currently third (9 wins, 4 losses, 36 premiership points, 140.6 per cent)
Matches to play: Western Bulldogs (Metricon), bye, Essendon (Gabba), Richmond (Metricon), Sydney Swans (TBC)

Geelong are currently Victoria’s best-performed team.

In the past fortnight, the Cats have easily accounted for the two South Australian clubs, though were forced to survive a stern challenge from the bottom-placed Crows at the Oval before emerging victors by 28 points.

Chris Scott’s side face some serious opposition in the next month, starting with the eighth-placed Western Bulldogs on the Gold Coast this Friday night, before they get to enjoy a break in Round 15.

Following that is a clash against Essendon, who sit in 12th place on the ladder and have been decimated by injuries to key players, namely captain Dyson Heppell and his deputy, David Zaharakis, neither of whom will play again this year.

They then face reigning premiers Richmond at Metricon Stadium before they wrap up with a match against the Sydney Swans, for which a venue is still to be determined with the unlikelihood that it will be played at the SCG, owing to state border restrictions.

I have them finishing third, and drawing what shapes as a tough qualifying final against the Lions at the Gabba.

Predicted finish: third

West Coast Eagles
Currently fourth (9 wins, 3 losses, 36 premiership points, 121.3 per cent)
Matches to play: Richmond (Metricon), Essendon (Gabba), Western Bulldogs (Metricon), St Kilda (Gabba), North Melbourne (TBC)

After struggling on the Gold Coast hub earlier this season, the Eagles have risen up the ladder over the past month-and-a-half, winning their last eight matches to rocket up to fourth.

They now pose the biggest threat as the dark horses for the flag, which was in blue-and-gold hands as recently as 2018.

They face a serious test of their premiership credentials when they face Richmond in their return to the southeast Queensland hub, where they will be based until season’s end.

There is, however, the chance that their Round 18 opponents, North Melbourne, may relinquish their home ground advantage to allow the match to be played in Perth, which would also allow the Eagles to stay home for their first-week final, should they gain one.

In between, Adam Simpson’s men can kill off the finals hopes of Essendon and the Western Bulldogs, while they’ll also face St Kilda, who are bound to qualify for their first finals series in nearly a decade.

I have them losing to Richmond, but they should otherwise do enough to finish fourth, thus drawing a qualifying final against Port Adelaide, which could be played at the Oval with the borders between South Australia and Queensland currently open.

Predicted finish: fourth

Richmond
Currently fifth (8 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 34 premiership points, 119 per cent)
Matches to play: West Coast Eagles (Metricon), Fremantle (Metricon), bye, Geelong Cats (Metricon), Adelaide Crows (TBC)

The Tigers’ run to a fourth consecutive finals series will start with a potential finals preview against the West Coast Eagles at Metricon Stadium, followed by matches against Fremantle and the Geelong Cats on either side of a Round 16 bye.

The clash between the competition’s two most recent premiers kicks off another festival of football, with Rounds 14-17 to be condensed into a three-week period in which there will be at least one game played on 18 of 19 days (the exception being Monday, August 31).

Richmond also have to tackle the Cats in the penultimate round with the possibility that a double-chance will be up for grabs, while they’ll also face the Crows in the final round, with the expectation that it will be played at the Adelaide Oval.

I have the Tigers winning three of the four matches, with the loss being against the Cats in Round 17. That will be enough for them to secure a home final, but it’ll be a knockout final meaning they would have to win four consecutive matches to win a third flag in four years.

Predicted finish: fifth

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

St Kilda
Currently sixth (8 wins, 5 losses, 32 premiership points, 114.5 per cent)
Matches to play: Melbourne (TIO Traeger Park), bye, Hawthorn (Metricon), West Coast Eagles (Gabba), GWS Giants (TBC)

Despite last week’s heartbreaking loss to Brisbane, St Kilda remain on track to qualify for their first finals series since 2011.

Under reborn coach Brett Ratten, the Saints have been one of the most improved teams of the competition and this has been put down to the impact that their off-season recruits have made to the side, namely Zak Jones, Dan Butler and Paddy Ryder.

They can all but punch their finals ticket with winnable matches against Melbourne and Hawthorn on either side of the Round 15 bye.

They face the West Coast Eagles at the Gabba in a match that could decide which of the two teams claims the coveted double chance, which leaves them to face the Giants in the final round, with the possibility that last year’s beaten grand finalists could be playing for a place in the eight after struggling for form in recent weeks.

I have the Saints winning three of their four remainders, with the loss being to the Eagles. That will be enough to earn them sixth place and a possible elimination final showdown against Collingwood.

Predicted finish: sixth

Collingwood
Currently seventh (7 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 30 premiership points, 109.1per cent)
Matches to play: Carlton (Gabba), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), BYE, Gold Coast Suns (Gabba), Port Adelaide (TBC)

With their season on a knife’s edge, the Pies secured an important win when they shook off a dogged North.

However, things get challenging in the final month, with vice-captain Steele Sidebottom to miss at least a month after returning home to Melbourne as he awaits the birth of his first child.

After this Sunday’s clash against arch-rivals Carlton, Collingwood face their most serious test this season when they face Brisbane in what promises to be a tantalising Friday night clash at the Gabba.

But that’s not all – they also have to face top-of-the-table Power at a venue still to be confirmed, with the possibility that it will be played at Metricon Stadium.

They’ll also play the Gold Coast Suns on September 14, which will put an end to the second festival of football.

I have them beating the Blues and Suns, which will be enough to see them finish seventh on the ladder.

Predicted finish: seventh

Western Bulldogs
Currently eighth (7 wins, 6 losses, 28 premiership points, 101.4per cent)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (Metricon), BYE, West Coast Eagles (Metricon), Hawthorn (Oval), Fremantle (TBC)

After three straight losses, each of them to teams in the top five, the Western Bulldogs have revived their finals hopes by winning their past two matches.

While their second-most recent win came against last-placed Adelaide, last week saw them edge out Melbourne by more than five goals for a place in the top half of the ladder ahead of what shapes as a tough next two matches.

It starts this Friday night with a clash against the third-placed Geelong, while they must also face the fourth-placed Eagles.

Things will then ease for Luke Beveridge’s men as they face Hawthorn and Fremantle in the final two rounds, and percentage will become important as they could either finish eighth or ninth.

I’ve got them finishing just inside the eight, which would see them draw an elimination final against the reigning premiers, Richmond.

Predicted finish: eighth

No official announcement has been made regarding venues for the post-season play-offs, though with Port Adelaide expected to finish in the top six, Adelaide Oval could host at least one final.

Naturally, the Lions would still host their finals at the Gabba, while the West Coast Eagles could be forced to play a second (or third) week home final in southeast Queensland, as they would have to quarantine for a fortnight upon returning home to Western Australia, potentially holding up the series.

It would be a case of history repeating for the club, which was twice stripped of home finals in the nineties because they finished lower than the Brisbane Bears and Lions in 1996 and 1999 respectively.

Should Queensland win the right to host all finals this season, then the Gabba would be used for all matches, including the grand final.

The two elimination finals would then be played at Metricon Stadium, though should the Lions finish anywhere between fifth and eighth, their elimination final would be played at the Gabba, regardless of their opponent.

However, if Western Australia gets the nod then all matches will be played at Optus Stadium, with teams facing each other in quarantine.

Following my predictions for the final five rounds, here is what the first week of finals would look like:

Qualifying finals
Port Adelaide vs West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Oval
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats, Gabba

Elimination finals
Richmond vs Western Bulldogs, Metricon Stadium
St Kilda vs Collingwood, Metricon Stadium