This Saturday night the Melbourne Storm and Parramatta Eels will clash in a top-four.
Placing second and third, you would think this would be a close match-up, but upon further inspection there’s little reason to believe this won’t be a blowout.
Parramatta have no chance. This is a battle between the benchmark the gold standard of the NRL against one the most inconsistent teams, against a team that’s won the most wooden spoons in the last ten years. They’re up against Melbourne, who have won multiple minor premierships and two premierships and have made the top four in all but two years of their existence.
The Storm have a winning culture embedded in them. The Eels have one of only occasional success. An average year for Melbourne would be considered an incredible accomplishment for the Eels.
(Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
The Eels have the longest active grand final drought and most wooden spoons of any current team. The most successful team isn’t losing a big game to one of the NRL’s great underachievers.
Yes, the Eels did beat the Storm this year 14-0, but Melbourne were missing eight starters, including Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Jesse Bromwich – and even then the Eels only just won. If they can score only 14 on a reserve-grade Storm side, how much can they score against them at full strength?
The most recent Eels form guide against Melbourne with their main players in is ominous. Last year the Storm obliterated the Eels 32-0 in the finals and 64-10 in the regular season, which happened to be at Suncorp Stadium, the same ground that will host them again this weekend.
That’s 96-10 over two games. It’s the type of scoreline you’d see if a first-grade side played and under-16s team.
The Eels form of late reads poorly. They just beat a Tigers team without Benji Marshall, lost 38-0 to the Souths, lost to the Dragons, only just beat the Bulldogs, and barely beat the Sharks, who nonetheless scored more tries. They chalked up a win against the last-placed Broncos but were completely dominated by Penrith.
I read an article on The Roar claiming the Eels to be the worst top-four team of the year, and I have to agree. Fifth-placed Canberra and sixth-placed Souths are a much better teams with far better prospects this finals series.
Melbourne haven’t lost in 14 weeks with Cameron Smith and Cameron Munster in the team – in fact the Eels haven’t beaten the Storm with Cameron Smith playing in the side since 2012. I don’t see that changing on Saturday.
The Eels right-edge defence is off the mark. Their attack, especially in execution, is way off. The clinical and methodical Storm will surgically filet these Eels. Unagi, anyone?
Parramatta’s best aren’t going to cut it against the Storm and all have their limitations. The side currently has no Australian or New Zealand national players and only one State of Origin player, that being Blake Ferguson, who arguably owes his place to Nick Cotric’s injury
Mitchell Moses is great as a frontrunner and has confidence but can’t rally his troops and play weekly when trailing. Clint Gutherson is a great leader who shows effort and passion that can’t be questioned but lacks pace for a fullback. He also can’t kick, as we saw last week when the Eels played the Tigers, and he’s not a great passer.
Or Reagan Campbell-Gillard, their star forward who admitted he kind of gave up while at Penrith. Or Ryan Matterson, who left the Tigers in part because he was upset that training sessions lasted a bit longer then he expected. You wouldn’t hear that from Storm players.
But the main reason the Eels stand no chance is that they Eels lack mental toughness. They were up 24-12 against the Raiders with five minutes left and almost lost it. They were up 10-8 against Roosters late in the second half and were beaten 24-10 with James Tedesco leaving the field. They were up 16-0 on the Bulldogs and only just hung on against the team running second last who were disallowed a fair try. They were up 18-2 against Manly but only one of the worst refereeing calls for a non-existent forward pass stopped the Sea Eagles from winning.
This is a team that, when it matters most, can’t seal the deal.
When you look at it, the Eels are going not on the same planet as the Storm. The cream will rise to the top.
If Parramatta win I will apologise for my mistake here, but I see more chance of catching smoke with a net then the Eels getting up over the Storm.
Dave
Guest
You I like
E-Meter
Roar Rookie
And still finished equal last
Chris Love
Roar Guru
If Dylan Brown is fully fit and plays, I think all it will take for Parramatta to be right in this game is for RCG and Paulo to return to the early season aggression they showed when Nathan Brown was out. Both of them were coming off the back fence with some huge runs that gave the Eels a lot of go forward. Since Nathan Brown’s return he began doing the same and the other two dropped off. If those three are on song Parramatta could easily find themselves putting a lot of field position pressure on Melbourne, where typically they tend to start their ruck wrestling tactics. The 6-agains could flow and Moses/Brown find themselves aiming for getting the ball in goal on the 5th creating repeat sets which on them so many in the first half of the season.
The Boss
Roar Guru
The stats should of said in the last 10 years the stroke have made top 4 all but 2 years. Also they may have won 6 games but the fashion they did was so unconvincing, they don’t leave you impressed.
Ben Lewis
Roar Pro
Good god man, I’ve seen Sky News “journalists” be less biased than this... Reference Andrew01’s comment for my thoughts on the article itself; you need to do a lot more research. From a fan’s perspective, do we have a chance against Melbourne? Of course, it’s just very microscopic. I’d say 95 times out of 100 the Storm win. That’s still 5 games where the Eels reign supreme. I just hope that tomorrow is one of those games.
Parasite
Roar Rookie
Doesn't matter anyway as we'll be there next week regardless and you never know, the team the eels face next week might all catch the flu or their bus might break down on the way to the game or a UFO may turn up and beam the other team away. It's not all lost, have some faith parra fans. Up the eels.
Duncan Smith
Roar Guru
Put a month's rent on.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
Just to prove my point. Gutho sits 7th on the try assists table at the end of the regular season. Guess how many full backs are on the ladder above him? Zero! And it ain’t because of his close to the line kicking game.
Truey
Guest
Records were made to be broken. Clearly the writer has no impartial thoughts when writing this article, otherwise they would have stated the other side of the coin about the teams that the eels have played in the last 6-8 weeks or more, where they have had a less than full strength side field the park as well. Many of those injured have been key positions. When are people ("journalists:) going to become impartial again? Let's say by some miracle they beat everyone in front of them, will they be writing how good the eels were and they knew it all along, or will they be writing about how weak the comp was this year because of COVID? BTW im ok with the eels being massive underdogs all the way, just sick of all media outlets not using all the facts when bagging the eels, yet pump the tires of other teams, did they know that the Panthers struggled to put the Broncos away a few weeks ago as well?
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Souths had 9 Kangaroos and were favourites but I wasn't surprised to see them get beaten in the grand final as Balmain had performed well all year. Souths were minor premiers on 36 points and Balmain were 2nd on 34 points well clear of Saints and Manly on 28 points. Souths won the major semi 14-13 but Balmain showed with a little improvement they were a good chance. Souths were unable to score a try and never looked like winning the grand final. Souths also had to deal with a referee who wasn't a Souths fan like Col Pearce who refereed their previous three grand final wins.
Chris Love
Guest
Most of what you've written here is on the money. But to say that Clint Gutherson isn't a great passer is way off the mark. Of all current fullbacks maybe Ponga is better. He could easily fill a 6 Jersey in most NRL sides.
MaM
Roar Rookie
Great perspective. Go Eels.
Rob
Guest
High speed efforts doesn't refer to how quick a player actually is. It just keeps track of how many times player hits speeds of 20km/h or more throughout a game.
Matthew
Guest
Correct me if I Am Wrong but who say south’s putting 60 on the 2 time premiers who were aiming for 3rd place... NO ONE... The eels lost to the dragons on a disallowed try in the dying minutes by parra in Mary’s emotionally charged final game as coach.. The eels have won more gritty games than most others in the season by their mental Toughness to come Back or fight off a late charge.. They beat Penrith, the Storm, Canberra and almost beat the roasters... who were also almost beaten by the Titans.. They won 75 percent of games and rightfully sit in outright 3rd... And correct me if I am Wrong but didn’t they only lost by 2 points to the storm in the 2017 prelim final.. As a long suffering parra fan, I also think the storm will be too hard to beat. But I don’t think they deserve to be bashed that badly by an obviously bias’ writer..
no one in particular
Roar Guru
he's used to it
no one in particular
Roar Guru
the dogs had no chance against Souths 2 weeks ago
E-Meter
Roar Rookie
Only a dreamer would think they are a chance. The Eels have to play the game of their lives and Melbourne need to fumble a lot.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
You are likely to be correct Mr. Boss, I can't see an Eels win either. But I'd wish people would let go of that forward pass by Manly in the Parra game. There have been worse errors every round, often committed by the bunker with replays galore, and the ball went forward. Can't keep hauling a poor touchie over the coals because he applied what he saw rather than a science equation (momentum, floating or windspeed or physics) and Manly acknowledged they could have won the game regardless.
The Boss
Roar Guru
Of course i will , no one is perfect .
bazza200
Guest
Clearly poorly researched "Clint Gutherson is a great leader who shows effort and passion that can’t be questioned but lacks pace for a fullback." Gutho was leading the NRL but has dropped at little bit with high speed efforts he is in top 5 So this suggests that he is not slow.