Six teams remain in the race for this year’s AFL flag, with four of them to fight for their survival this weekend.
After winning their respective qualifying finals against the Geelong Cats and Richmond Tigers, Port Adelaide and the Brisbane Lions will both enjoy a week off, during which they’ll learn the identity of their preliminary final opponents.
For the first time since 1994, both second-week finals will feature only Victorian teams, but as the southern state begins to slowly emerge out of lockdown after three months, both semi-finals will be played in Queensland.
The Cats and Tigers will look to avoid a straight-sets exit from October when they come up against Collingwood and St Kilda in their semi-finals, to be played at the Gabba and Metricon Stadium respectively.
The final between the Tigers and Saints, which despite being the second semi-final (as per convention in the AFL finals system) will actually be played before the first semi-final, will be the teams’ first in a final since 1973.
The Cats and Pies are facing off in their sixth meeting in a final dating back to the 2007 preliminary final, and will also be their second meeting on neutral territory this season after the teams met at Optus Stadium back in Round 7.
Here is your guide to this weekend’s two semi-finals.
[3] Richmond vs [6] St Kilda
6:50pm (local), Friday October 9
Metricon Stadium
This season: St Kilda 15.3 (93) defeated Richmond 10.7 (67) at Marvel Stadium in Round 4.
Last meeting in a final: Richmond 15.18 (108) defeated St Kilda 9.14 (68) at the MCG, first semi-final, 1973.
While they did lead at quarter-time in their qualifying final against the Brisbane Lions last Friday night, ill discipline ultimately cost the Tigers, as their dominance in Queensland came to an end.
The 15-point loss marked their first defeat against them anywhere since 2009, and at the Gabba since 2004, while it was also their first defeat in the Sunshine State since Round 1, 2014. It was also the first time Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin had suffered defeat against the men from the Gabba.
Their focus now turns towards a semi-final showdown against the Saints, who held on for a thrilling three-point win against the Western Bulldogs.
Playing their first finals series since 2011, the Saints banked on the experience of captain Jarryn Geary, veteran ruckman Paddy Ryder and Swans premiership player Dan Hannebery to get them over the line.
Sadly, though, Ryder won’t play again in 2020 due to a hamstring injury he suffered in the dying minutes, while defender Jake Carlisle has returned home to be with his partner who is awaiting the birth of their third child.
They’ll also be hoping Ben Long’s appeal against a one-match suspension arising from rough conduct succeeds, otherwise St Kilda will have to make at least three changes.
Despite their setbacks, Brett Ratten’s men will fancy their chances, having beaten the Tigers by 26 points at an empty Marvel Stadium back in Round 4.
Ratten has also never lost against Damien Hardwick in the coaches’ box, which should be a good omen for Saints fans, but it’s more realistic that Richmond should book themselves a plane trip to Adelaide for a shot at Port.
For the winner: a trip to the Adelaide Oval to face the minor premiers in the preliminary final next Friday night.
For the loser: a long plane trip back home to Melbourne.
Prediction: Richmond by 17 points.
Jason Castagna of the Tigers (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
[4] Geelong Cats vs [8] Collingwood
6:25pm (local), Saturday October 10
The Gabba
This season: Collingwood 8.9 (57) defeated Geelong Cats 5.5 (35) at Optus Stadium in Round 7.
Last meeting in a final: Collingwood 9.7 (61) defeated Geelong Cats 7.9 (51) at the MCG, first qualifying final, 2019.
Who could forget the gripping 2007 preliminary final in which a goal from Gary Ablett saw the Cats get up by five points or the 2011 grand final where a masterclass from Jimmy Bartel denied the Pies back-to-back flags?
Then there was last year’s qualifying final, which saw the Pies win by ten points despite being kept scoreless in the final quarter.
This will be the second time the Cats and Collingwood meet on neutral territory this year, after they faced each other in the Western Australia quarantine hub back in Round 7, with the Pies winning by 22 points.
The Cats’ recent finals woes continued when they lost to the Power by 16 points at the Oval last Thursday night, with Coleman Medallist Tom Hawkins being kept goalless.
This marked their ninth first-week finals defeat dating back to 2010 and eighth since their most recent flag in 2011; significantly, they have also not won a first-week final against an opponent other than Hawthorn since 2009.
Nathan Buckley’s side responded to the Western Australia media labeling them “dirty Pies” by edging out the West Coast Eagles by a solitary point in the elimination final at Optus Stadium and gaining some revenge for their 2018 grand final defeat.
As he did in the 2018 preliminary final, Mason Cox kicked crucial goals as his side won the first final to be decided by a point since the 2006 grand final (which coincidentally saw the Eagles defeat the Sydney Swans to win their third flag).
It was hailed by some as the greatest coaching achievement by Nathan Buckley, eclipsing his efforts in getting to the grand final in 2018.
Another upset win over the Cats would see the Pies book a date against Brisbane in the preliminary final next week, but despite Geelong’s recent woes, they’ll take the points.
For the winner: stay ‘home’ and face the Brisbane Lions in an away preliminary final at the Gabba next Saturday night.
For the loser: season over.
Prediction: Geelong Cats by eight points.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Obviously we'd rather not lose, but if we do then the heat will come, and genuine cuts/changes will need to be made (especially with the COVID cuts). Big decisions looming. I only know two other cats fans in person aside from myself, so its hard to get a read of the fan base, but the boards on BigFooty speak volumes regarding what the fan base want, and they want more. Just making finals is not enough anymore, just as it wasn't enough in the late 80's and early to mid 90's. No one is saying we suck (clearly most teams would kill to be us), or that we should bottom out Carlton style and do a full rebuild, but we do need to start prepping for life after Selwood, Hawk and Co. and start building up the youth again. We have the players but they need to be backed in and given more game time to develop. Cats fans are not happy with bringing in older players like Steven and Higgins and potentially losing youngsters like Narkle or chook in their place. We need an injection of youth, like what port Adelaide did 2 seasons ago. Clearly we keep falling short because we're not quite good enough, so why not shake things up for another proper crack at it, before we lose Danger and the rest and have to start again from scratch? Right now we're stuck in a vicious cycle of repetition and failure, and its exhausting for the fans, players and coaches. How about doing something different, like the tigers did in 17. We are fast becoming the definition of insanity!
Shane
Guest
Week One we mostly play a top four side. Week Two we mostly play a 5-8 ranked side. Week Three we mostly play a top four ranked side again. It's not rocket science. It is the reality of the situation. Of course Week 1 and week 3 are going to be more difficult to win than week 2.
Shane
Guest
Sorry, but that is rubbish. No, we don't want to lose this week so we can fire people. A vast majority of members are happy with how the club is run. I'd rather make finals than be a non contender for five years relying on AFL welfare to develop a team, thank you very much.
Larry Longshaft
Roar Rookie
For sure mhmm
Samuel Power
Roar Rookie
Richmond v St Kilda: Will definitely be an interesting game, however I think the young Saints are starting to run out of legs. Was a terrific game for the club last week and Richmond would be bitterly disappointed with themselves and were probably lucky that they didn't lose by more. However the finals experience of Richmond to get them over the line here. Richmond 11.11 (77) def. 7.8 (50) St Kilda. Geelong Cats v Collingwood This game is definitely hard to tip. Geelong playing OK against Port Adelaide however poor kicking cost them in the end. Collingwood had a sensational win last weekend and many think that it was their grand final, but I wouldn't be so sure about that. Collingwood beat Geelong pretty convincingly last time and I think we're due for a bit of an upset here. Geelong were out-hunted last week by Port and Collingwood hunted West Coast, I can see much of the same here. Geelong 8.10 (58) def. by 10.5 (65) Collingwood. NEXT WEEKS MATCHUPS: Port Adelaide v Richmond - Adelaide Oval Brisbane Lions v Collingwood - Gabba
sven
Roar Rookie
it is interesting, no denying theres teams that go better at some venues than others
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
I hope not another groundhog day finals series for the cats. Note to Scott, try a Ruckman against Grundy this year.
Larry Longshaft
Roar Rookie
So humble Peter
Iceyone444
Guest
Why is the 2nd semi final played first?
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Gracious winner, missing in defeat
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I agree Sven but still interesting hey? Of course the Eagles were unbeaten at home until Sat night
sven
Roar Rookie
think u also need to consider who theyve played against in those games pts
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Man i find it hard to talk about my cats before a big game. I really think I'm the one choking... I'm scared I'll jinx them. They are such a powerful unit and yet they seem so fragile. Just shoot me. I'm going mad. I even had a Seinfeld fantasy about Richmond. Cotchin was Jerry Dimma was George. Dusty was Elaine. and the Chaos theory was Kramer.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Venue analysis is interesting. You don’t want to play Richmond at Metricon, Brisbane or Geelong at the Gabba and Port in Adelaide. Ironically, if the Saints get to Adelaide, they are the only side to beat Port there. Gabba Wins/Losses Port Adelaide 3-1 St Kilda 4-3 Richmond 2-1 Geelong 3-0 (average winning margin 8 goals) Collingwood 4-3 Brisbane 10-0 Metricon Port Adelaide 5-1 St Kilda 2-1 Richmond 6-0 (no wonder Dimma chose it!) Geelong 3-1 Collingwood 0-0 Brisbane 3-1 Adelaide oval Richmond 1-1 Port Adelaide 7-1 St Kilda 2-0
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
I'm astounded that Dalhaus escapes criticism. I know he creates pressure but only seems to get on the end of scoring chains against weak opposition. Just doesn't do enough in my opinion.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I don’t know any more about the fans voice not getting through at times Danger . In an interview the week before the Pies v WCE game Grundy said something like “ as the Pies fans say, we need to get it in quicker”.
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
haha if only hey Pete! Something a little different to ignite a fire in their bellies! Scotty wouldn't have a bar of it but it might be just what they need :silly: In all seriousness though I know I'm just yelling into the void here, but I do hope the message is somehow echoed throughout the halls of their cosy hub. It's line in the sand time now, 9 years straight of finals failure is about 5 years too many. They are too good and too proud to keep failing like this, they need to demand more of themselves and step up. Enough is enough!
Nick
Roar Guru
It would be hard to suggest that Scott will play the same 22 to be honest.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Stirring speech Danger, I reckon Scotty should get you in the rooms pre-game!