It’s been an almighty age since the Wallabies held the Bledisloe Cup. Embarrassingly long.
Against one other team (albeit, a very good one), the task is to win more games than you lose. A task that eludes the Wallabies. More often than not, it’s not even really that close.
After the weekend’s performance – a record loss of 38 points – I thought what better way to dwell on the loss than by unpacking the statistics of the 50 Bledisloe Cup matches that have transpired since Australia last had the honour.
These numbers may stoke the flame of the emotions rendered from that match and either make you even more disappointed in an abject Wallabies loss or make you revere the All Blacks in a slightly higher manner, knowing full well that it isn’t just this current young crop that is struggling to match it with rugby’s premier team.
Starting with the basics, from those 50 matches played, the All Blacks have won 39, the Wallabies have won eight, with three matches drawn.
You read that right – eight wins from the last 50 attempts dating back to 2003.
In that time, the Kiwis have amassed 1478 points for an average of 29.56 per match. The Aussies have a much more humble 889 points across this time – that’s 589 fewer points, which is worth slightly more than 84 converted tries. This averages out to 17.78 points per match.
New Zealand just banked their biggest winning margin against us, 38 points, but last year Australia managed their biggest win against New Zealand with a margin of 21 points. This exact margin had been recorded by Australia in the early 2000s, but most impressively, 21 remains the most points by which a team has been able to beat the All Blacks.
However, the All Blacks have beaten the Wallabies by 21 points or more in 13 of their 39 wins. That’s once in every three times.
Furthermore, only two of the Wallabies’ eight wins have been by more than ten points, while 26 of the All Blacks’ wins have been by ten or more. Two in every three matches they win fairly comfortably.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Factoring in how hard it is to beat the Kiwis for any team, I set out to see how often we were competitive but didn’t quite get there.
Looking at the results, only ten of the 39 results saw the Aussies lose by seven points or fewer, which isn’t terrible given how easily the All Blacks can stack on points, but it definitely isn’t worth celebrating.
Further exaggerating that issue is that the most recent bonus-point loss occurred in 2014 and the one before that in 2010. In recent memory, when we’ve been losing, we’ve been losing convincingly.
This gets exacerbated when it isn’t just the All Blacks’ attack that is so dominant, but their ability to defend as well.
The lowest score that the Wallabies have held them to in this period is 12 points, yet that didn’t even result in a win. Australia have been kept to 12 or less on 16 different occasions, including two matches where they failed to register a point.
Plenty of doom and gloom if you’re an Australian rugby fan, but this too shall pass.
It won’t be this year, it may not be next year, but there’s something simmering away nicely in the cauldron that is dying to be unleashed.
Megeng
Roar Rookie
I can't argue with that. But you're focused on the ball in hand. Whereas in defence; Missed tackles everywhere No cohesion in sliding Unmarked men everywhere No commitment to the ground And, in a complimentary issue, 10 metre kicks to touch which effectively gift the pill to the other team in an attacking position.
Targa
Roar Rookie
There have also been 3 World Cup matches in that time - the 2003 semi won by Australia (bad memories), as well as the 2011 semi and 2015 both won by the men in black. The biggest problem for Australia is winning in NZ. They haven't done that since 2001, a few months before a bloke called McCaw made his debut. Australia has done well in Brisbane though, so there is hope for this weekend.
CPM
Roar Rookie
If Scotland can end their 18 year losing streak in Wales then why not Aus? I know it would be like winning the lotto for no. 7 to beat no. 2 over three matches but if Eddie could do it why not Rennie.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
These things still need work obviously, a lot of work, but they have a raft of new players who are trying new things and a coach who is working out what works and what doesn't with this lot. They really need to get the basics right in Brisbane, because when they do, they have enough strike power to cause some damage. Unfortunately the handling and protecting of our own ball has been so bad that it's caused countless kick options that weren't on, offloads to no one, balls turned over or penalties. They need to fix that asap to have a chance.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
I must admit I find it harder and harder to get as optimistic about our chances, but it beats the hell out of being miserable about it. They have to get there eventually, but it really does need to be asap before even more fans fall out of love with the team.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
This is the interesting aspect. I love him as a player, but he doesn't pilfer effectively like we've seen Cane do this tournament. I still don't know how our backrow will end up looking, but I've long thought we have great individual players to choose from, we just haven't had a good combination/game plan that matches those selections.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
I hope you're right, but it's not looking all that likely off the last two performances. I won't hang my hat on those as I know he'll improve, but it's a massive climb.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
The last 6 words are the poignant takeaway. It wasn't enough.
Wigeye
Guest
Good point tc, in the 70s 80s in nelson nz we always gathered at victory park for rugby cricket bullrush and acorn fights amongst a few others, An unruly bunch we met there always for unofficial sport that was on top off school and Saturday sports,you play for your primary school during the week and clubs on Saturdays wed be in different clubs
Stu
Roar Rookie
"..there’s something simmering away nicely in the cauldron that is dying to be unleashed."" . I don't know why so many people keep saying this. The RA system provides nothing. Or we'd be winning. Or at least competing for 80 minutes. Or at least not getting flogged by record scores. The NZ side didn't even switch on for that Bled 3 second half - if they did, they'd have run up a cricket score. Every other top ranked nation's rugby boards demand: professional era evolution - RESULTS and wins. The RA board wants: old world amateur era HOBNOBBING and toffing - they get to dine out on caviar - no-one's rushing to change anything at the RA!
TC
Roar Rookie
Would like start by saying I'm not making excuses..But..I would be intrested to know whether NZ schools has restrictions on Before and After School Rugby. Not the Official Training, but the unsupervised stuff. I think this is an Area where due to Litigation, schools have banned so much where Young Sports People can Develop their Unstructured Skills..Just a Thought?
Scotty P
Roar Rookie
Not a fair comparison imo as NZ have a fraction of the registered players that Australia has in League. Granted a lot of Kiwi internationals are schoolboy rugby stars that have been poached by League but still, the difference in playing numbers is massive. Whereas there isn’t a big gap in playing numbers between the two countries in Union. The Wallabies should be doing better.
Bushranger
Guest
We measure ourselves against the best as we should, but the fact that we play the best so much more than any other team also means we get beaten by them more than any other team. Some nations have never beaten them and would be beaten by them more often if they played them more often.
jcmasher
Roar Rookie
Hahahahaha I've been vilified a number of times for suggesting Hooper isn't good so I've given up. Personally I love his intensity and the effort he puts in, No one can deny the effort. I just find him pretty ineffective as both a 7 and captain
Keg
Guest
It may under Rennie, but it wont under Hooper.
Ad-O
Guest
Probably not best to buy into the hype. I've lost count of the number of Wallabies teams full of "world class talent" bullied by the Blacks and the Poms. We can at least look forward to that time in the future where we can all blame Dave Rennie for our failure to execute basic skills just like we blamed Cheike, Link and Robbie Deans. Some things never change.
Purdo
Roar Rookie
While beating the All Blacks consistently is something Australian Rugby should have as an ambition, wouldn’t it be good to play some other teams more often? If we are rated 7th in the world (I think we got up to 5th when we drew with the ABs a few weeks ago) wouldn’t it be good to play the countries rated 3 – 10 more often? The distribution of Earth’s population with the vast majority in the Northern Hemisphere is against us. I won’t say it’s our misfortune to be in the South with SA and NZ, because that gives us the privilege of playing them more often; but we might find Rugby less depressing if we weren’t perpetually outclassed by the teams we play. What can be done organisationally to fix that? Maybe we should stress time zone proximity over summer Vs winter divide. I don’t know what the solution actually is. I’d like the solution to be fixing our imbalance against New Zealand, but realistically that might be beyond us except for during occasional lucky times of freakish players (we compete with AFL and NRL for the pick of rising young sportsmen – and our inability to compete with them results from a century of determined and exclusive amateurism). This doesn’t mean Rugby should be abandoned in Australia; it means we should enjoy more competitions with closer-to-equals. SRAU this year was a very enjoyable competition, though recent weeks have verified what we suspected – that SR Aotearoa was played at a higher level. Personally, I have enjoyed country Aussie Rules where my son was playing, and where the teams were fairly equal, and I have enjoyed the NRC which is where I think the basic professional level of Rugby in Australia should really be. I think NRC could be a pathway to about three Super Rugby teams which might be competitive against NZ teams. Ambition to be the best is a great thing in some ways (and it’s certainly preached in our private schools), but in other ways it means we can’t be pleased with the level at which we do play.
Megeng
Roar Rookie
What's simmering away nicely? There no sign of their defence improving. Nor their kicking.
Bobby
Roar Rookie
Mitch, thanks for article. However because we are on the wrong side of recent history, I'm sick and tired of the continual reminder. I would rather a preview of Bled 4, the expected selection and plan of the Wallabies and the same from the NZ side.
Ad-O
Guest
Might have been useful to have been able to select from our OS based Wallabies during that time. Would have added to our depth. Y'know the thing you need so your not throwing 21yo kids to the slaughter. But hey, at least we've been able to protect Super Rugby......