With the Tri-Nations title seemingly beyond them, the Wallabies’ highest priority for the final match of 2020 is to chase the one thing they need more than anything: they simply must win.
Last week’s equations highlighted how hard a task it was going to be for both Argentina and Australia going into the last game of the season, and New Zealand’s 38-0 win in Newcastle on the weekend only further underlines the magnitude of the task.
But, for the record… this is where we’re up to now.
First and foremost, both the Pumas and Wallabies need a bonus point win to draw level with the All Blacks on 11 competition points.
From there, it rapidly lands in “highly unlikely” territory.
New Zealand already enjoyed a +16 for-and-against advantage over Argentina before last weekend, and the 38-0 win only extended that further.
The All Blacks differential finished on +64, while the Pumas’ dropped to -28, meaning as well as scoring three tries more than whatever the Wallabies manage at Bankwest Stadium on Saturday night, Argentina must also win by at least 93 points.
For the Wallabies, it’s a neat 100-point gap they need to make up. They have at least scored three times as many tries in this Tri-Nations tournament as Argentina, but finding a hundred points more than the opposition when they’ve averaged less than 15 points a game is about as tough as it gets.
If both teams chase the title on Saturday night, it will certainly be entertaining.
In terms of Australian rugby, this also represents the last chance to play to all potential that Wallabies fans have been reading and hearing about this season.
Yes, it’s a young team. Young teams do make mistakes. But it’s not necessarily the young players under pressure in this last game of the year.
Dave Rennie will again name his last side for 2020 on Thursday morning, and it will be fascinating to see what combinations he goes to in search of one last win for the year.
Because from fullback to front row, there are more than a few players who need to remind us of their worth at international level.
With James Slipper injured and out of action, and Angus Bell already nipping at his heals, Scott Sio is certainly in the crosshairs to finish the season strongly.
Sio and Slipper operate in tandem at the Brumbies to good effect, but at international level, Slipper’s superior scrummaging has seen him preferred as the starting loosehead all year.
Bell’s ability to withstand what will be a fired-up Argentinean front row from the start will be the only question marks for Rennie, for it’s clear that youth and enthusiasm propel Bell around the field with great effect. If Sio is picked to start, it feels like this might be his last chance to show that he isn’t ready to be overtaken by the young Waratah.
Scott Sio. (Supplied photo by Andrew Phan/Rugby Australia)
Brandon Paenga-Amosa and Folau Fainga’a have both had issues with hitting a lineout target, and both will be sweating on the fitness of Rebels rake Jordan Uelese, who played the first three Tests of the season off the bench. Knowing Argentina’s love of a defensive lineout steal, and assuming he’s fit, it wouldn’t at all surprise to see Uelese named.
The Allan Ala’alatoa-Taniela Tupou debate around who is the best starter and who is the best bench option remains, but both will need to be at the top of the scrummaging game this weekend. After New Zealand at time demolished the Argentine front row, a response shouldn’t be unexpected.
The second row looks relatively well settled, but the back row is far from.
Ned Hanigan has been playing the blindside flanker role well, and provides the additional lineout option. He’s not as aggressive as Lachie Swinton, but he also doesn’t sail as close to illegality as Swinton does. Michael Hooper is playing as Michael Hooper typically does, as well.
Harry Wilson has had a strong first year of professional rugby, capped off by his Wallabies debut and a start in every Test this season. But his his role has been in state of flux and it looks to be affecting his performance. Rennie clearly needs to find a way to utilise Wilson’s wider running game, but to do that, he needs more ball carriers through the middle channel.
James O’Connor has declared himself fit and ready for selection, which then has ramifications for Reece Hodge and Hunter Paisami. How Rennie fits the three of them into a two-man midfield is anyone’s guess, and likewise what it does for the Wallabies approach to attack.
Jordan Petaia is a young player who is undoubtedly going to become a very good Wallaby in time. But it does feel like the headlines and the hype are currently outweighing his output. His ball security in contact has been questionable at times, and his decision making not much better. There’s pressure on him to deliver, and there’s pressure on attack coach Scott Wisemantel to best utilise Petaia’s talent while not stifling opportunities out wider.
Finally, Tom Banks has done a serviceable job at fullback, but has discovered the hard way that those gaps he’s handle to find in Super Rugby and create something out of nothing with his speed just aren’t available as often at international level.
It means that an O’Connor return in the front line could open the door for Hodge to shift to the back. Which in itself would bring yet more pressure on a Wallabies backline to play with the ability we know these players have but just haven’t seen as much as we’d like in 2020.
K.F.T.D.
Roar Rookie
Bag of hammers
Mirt
Roar Rookie
Yeah, can’t go past Flanders. . Go Netherlands
Adsa
Roar Rookie
For the team tomorrow I hope Valentiani gets a start instead of Flanders, Wright gets a start instead of the gnome and the bench back 5 forwards are Samu and Hosea. Try something different coach.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Yeah I can see why you are a guest ..... certainly not a serious commentator
terrykidd
Roar Pro
Hmmmm no Matera, Petti or Siconi and I wonder if Sanchez actually plays as he has a groin injury. It could be that the Pumas put in a token effort for 20 minutes then run up the white flag. I predict that their scrum will get demolished and their lineout steals will be non-existent without Petti. It would take a miracle to win by 100 but a large Wallaby win is highly likely.
Gloria
Roar Rookie
Yes, the rules were set. Doesn’t mean they are right or the best way to do it. The value of how points are scored is already set by the value given, ie 5 for a try, 3 for a penalty, 2 for a conversion, three for a drop goal. Without ‘bonus’ points, the value of a win, a loss and a draw is ascertained only by the score in each game, using the established points per score method as defined by the laws of the game. To then impose some artificial and arbitrary ’bonus’ points scheme, effectively on top of the real points, a system which has the potential, as it has in this competition, to decide the winner, and elevate the value of ‘bonus’ points above real points, in search of a method to control how teams score their points, is downright silly, fake, superficial and shallow. A draw is one of three possible results and the tournament rules allocate table points for each of those three, win, draw, loss, in the order of value, completely appropriately and logically, descending, from the highest value, a win, 1/2 of that value, a draw, which is not a win and not a loss, and the zero value, a loss. If you want to banish draws, bonus points have no effect, that argument is a complete red herring. This is test rugby and the Pumas (and England in the RWC) have clearly demonstrated the value of playing a hard defensive game where the strategy is to impose an impregnable barrier on the opposition’s ability to score. It is just as valid a strategy as any other, has provided two of the most memorable results in the last 2 years, results which have marketed the game far better than some fake ‘bonus’ points system, and is a demonstration of what true test rugby is all about: Disarming your opponents weapons and maximising the value of your own. If you want the artificial, marketing man invention of fake ‘bonus’ points (I don’t), then loss-draw-win points of 0-3-6 works better so that the artificial bonus points of one point for a small loss and one point for ‘three tries’ are better balanced with the overall result.
scubasteve
Guest
Beaten at the breakdown depends on your interpretation of breakdown. Pilfers? he is going good here still. Cleaning out? serviceable . Protection? serviceable. Where he has traditionally sung is in defence and attack wide channels. Based on this you could argue you need your 6/8 combo doing harder breakdown work (or stronger 6/8 combo). So yeah if you want the qualities that Hooper brings you do need a stronger 6/8. Hooper is world class and we can't say we have that with 6/8. What is interesting is I can't recall seeing Hooper having as big an impact in the wide channels this year on attack. This could be a coaching decision (they have had the 6/8's running wide this test season) or Hooper slowing.
scubasteve
Guest
Oh boy.
Brian Westlake
Roar Rookie
You'd best get Brad Thorn in to coach as well. You cant have both mcreight and tupou there as there will be nothing left to eat for anybody.
Ummm…The size of the win is totally irrelevant, artificial, false and misleading. This is test match rugby. The size of the wins and losses determined the winner of the tournament Gloria. Simple concept…….You earn BPs just as you earn wins. NZ EARNT 3 BPs…..Stop trying to elevate the value of a draw….Everyone hates draws….In the Bledisloe series a draw just changed the comp from best of 4 to best of 3 so it had no impact on that comp but in the Tri nations the lack of ability to break the draw resulted in both sides losing. But if both sides hadnt given up major losses they would still be in with a shot.
Gloria
Roar Rookie
Umm, a draw earns 2, a win 4. And a loss is literally, demonstrably, obviously and clearly a bigger fail than a draw. The size of the win is totally irrelevant, artificial, false and misleading. This is test match rugby. The All Blacks will not be the team with the best win/loss record in this tournament. Yet, with no finals and only three teams, they still win?
Marlin
Roar Rookie
You lost me at Beale being exceptional (under the high ball) lol
Adsa
Roar Rookie
Good comment Waxy, I also pondered the authors comment on Uelese and line out throwing ability. His form is pretty erratic. BPA seems best of an unconvincing lot and probably get the jersey for his work around the field.
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Solid? Reckon his Mum might need to do a bowel screening mate...
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
I make it a rule to back the opposite to yoiu halfback! Underdog. Pppffft. :laughing:
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Google is my friend Carlos. Some of these tweets were clearly racist. I don't know why you're arguing that point
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
OK, I can see who might be one better, who are the other two?
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Am I to understand that means they didn't play well enough? How absurd
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
I like Hodge as a player but really don't like him at 10. His skills are not his passing and aiding players around him - he's got a good boot, defends bravely and well in the line, and carries harder than his weight. I much prefer him at 12
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Makes sense to me. The season could be given a pass mark with a win and draw against NZ and a win and a draw against Argies. Win and a loss against Argies, that's a fail. It's a must win