The premiership dark horse going under the radar

I’m about to do something that the AFL media cannot do. I’m going to be upfront about a mistake.

In February 2020 I was telling anyone who would listen that the Western Bulldogs were the dark horse of the competition and could surprise some people. The only person who was surprised was me given they essentially went nowhere.

Heading into 2021 now and there’s one team screaming off the page as a Richmond-beater. They already have premiership success and have probably only one more chance to grab another piece of silverware.

That team is the West Coast Eagles.

West Coast lost to Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Richmond in 2020 but in one of the games of the season defeated Geelong by nine points. Those losses were big though: 30 against the Lions, 45 against Port Adelaide and 27 against the Tigers.

The Eagles really had a stinking attitude in the bubble for publicised reasons but got to 6-3 before their bye and 6-2 afterwards to be half a game off third on the ladder.

Was their season such a disastrous mess? Not quite.

(Photo by Matt Roberts/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

The list turnover at the Eagles hasn’t cost them a lot at all. Tom Hickey was traded to Sydney after failing to set the world on fire in the West and Will Schofield retired from outside their best 22. Debutants Hamish Brayshaw and Nic Reid were delisted and Francis Watson had horrific injury issues. We didn’t get enough of a look at Mitch O’Neill and Anthony Treacy, and Lewis Jetta was delisted after 75 games at the Eagles and 127 for the Swans.

The inclusion of Giant Zac Langdon as a depth small forward for next to no cost was an okay acquisition but the recruitment of Alex Witherden from Brisbane was one of the more shrewd trades of the off-season. The Eagles gave up only two third-round picks and a fifth-round pick for him – borderline robbery for a man who finds the footy exceptionally well, is a beautiful user of the ball and makes good decisions.

In the draft the Eagles took Luke Edwards – son of Adelaide champion Tyson – who is a small defender who will be given the development time he deserves. Isiah Winder was their other draft pick, having played as a small forward rotating through the midfield at the Geelong Falcons. Both will be given time to develop their craft.

The Eagles were rocked by injuries last season, epitomised by only Tom Barrass, Jack Darling, Andrew Gaff, Tim Kelly, Liam Ryan and Brad Sheppard playing every game. Liam Duggan, Shannon Hurn, Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui, Dom Sheed missed only one game apiece. Best-22 players Tom Cole and Oscar Allen (15), Jamie Cripps (14), Luke Shuey and Jack Redden (13), Jeremy McGovern (12), Elliott Yeo (10), Jake Waterman (8), Mark Hutchings (3) all missed games due to injuries.

Richmond in 2017. as an example, were lauded for their lack of injuries, so a change in medical fortune could be a blessing for the Eagles.

So what’s the Eagles’ best 22 look like?

Backline
Shannon Hurn, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard

Halfback line
Alex Witherden, Jeremy McGovern, Liam Duggan

Midfield
Andrew Gaff, Elliott Yeo, Tom Cole

Half-forward line
Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Oscar Allen

Forward line
Liam Ryan, Josh Kennedy, Jake Waterman

Ruck
Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly

Interchange
Jack Redden, Dom Sheed, Brendon Ah Chee, Jackson Nelson

(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images via Getty Images)

That 22 is very strong. Josh Kennedy is 33 but still kicked two goals a game in 2020 and Jack Darling is still a very good centre half-forward and is only 28. Jeremy McGovern is still a superstar, and from that 2018 side all of 13 are in the 22 and another four – Willie Rioli, Daniel Venables, Mark Hutchings and Nathan Vardy – are still on the list, with all but Rioli have the potential to play roles throughout the year (depending on the outcome of Rioli’s sentence; if he can play this year, he’s a lock in the forward line).

Statistically West Coast’s season had its ups and downs. They were equal third for goals per game, second in hit-outs, fourth in clearances, seventh in rebound 50s and had the seventh-best retention rate inside 50 – all the more impressive given they were 15th for inside 50s.

West Coast’s strengths, especially in the premiership year of 2018, started in the midfield. Even with injuries to Luke Shuey, Jack Redden and Elliott Yeo they upturned the midfield statistics given they finished 17th for tackles, 15th for contested ball and third for most turnovers in the league – things that wouldn’t be happening otherwise.

So is it as simple as wishing on a medical star for success at West Coast? Possibly. Although it would be a fraction insulting to say they’re better than Richmond, there’s no reason they can’t match up with the other teams in the top ten.

They have better scoring power than Brisbane, they have more situational maturity than Port Adelaide – with premiership players on their list; no-one at the Power have won anything – and they’ve beat Geelong, St Kilda and Collingwood in the home-and-away season and lost to the Dogs by two points in one of the worst games of the year.

The 11 home games – as we sit here today – can’t be understated. The Eagles went 6-0 at home in the home-and-away season with an average winning margin of 23.5 points in 2020. It really is a fortress over in the West, and all they’d need is a 9-3 record or better, which they absolutely can get, and even a 5-5 record on the road nets them 13 wins, which is a finals spot, but they’re a better team than that.

The Bulldogs, Saints and Cats (at GMHBA) are a difficult match-up for the first three road trips, but Hawthorn, GWS, Carlton, Sydney, Adelaide and Collingwood are more than winnable. Their Round 23 game at the Gabba against Brisbane could make or break a top-four spot.

If they finish in the top four healthy, look out. West Coast won a premiership without Nic Naitanui, so when the 2020 All Australian ruckman comes back they’ll be that much more dangerous. Shuey, Yeo (when he comes back), Redden and Kelly will feed his tap work, Andrew Gaff is an ultra-consistent star, their defence is very stable, their forward line is dangerous and, as said before, their home ground is formidable.

This team is going under the radar at the moment, which is never a bad thing. There’s no such thing as a certainty in this caper, but the Eagles are ripe and ready to go for another tilt at a premiership.