Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs: Thursday Night Forecast

Life after Cameron Smith will begin for the Melbourne Storm as they launch the 2021 NRL season at home against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, with both sides carrying high expectations.

If there is one story which has dominated the headlines this off-season, it has been the eventual destination of Smith.

The legendary figure still hasn’t uttered a word about his future, and the only fact clear as we start the season is that he won’t be in Melbourne, or running out for any other club… Yet

The Storm, however, aren’t un-prepared for life after the future immortal, with Harry Grant and Brandon Smith now set to jostle for the starting number nine jersey.

It will be the younger Smith who gets first look-in though, given Grant picked up an injury which could sideline him for up to a month during the Storm’s only trial, a big win at home over the Newcastle Knights.

The Storm are otherwise reasonably settled coming off an emphatic premiership last season, one which was recorded while spending most of the season locked out of their home state.

The Rabbitohs, who were inconsistent throughout 2020, yet still managed to get within four points of a grand final, come into the season from a stronger base than where they were 12 months ago solely due to the limited disruption they have felt over the summer.

Wayne Bennett’s side have added Jai Arrow and Josh Mansour to the picture, while more time to work on combinations in the spine should only mean good things for the men from Redfern.

Key players

Cameron Munster
If life after Cameron Smith is going to be a success for the men in purple, Munster is going to be the key.

One of the first picked in both the Queensland and Australian teams, Munster has become one of the best players in the game, and will need to take on the added leadership without the other Cameron.

Arguably, he wasn’t at his absolute best last year with only eight try assists, but his kicking game went to another level, and his combination with Ryan Papenhuyzen had fans remembering the days of Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater.

With Jahrome Hughes alongside him, Munster needs to take complete control of the team and direct his forwards with precision against the might of the Bunnies.

(Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Cody Walker
When it comes to exciting halves, few have the same billing as Walker.

Finishing 2020 with 21 try assists in 20 games, he was the one constant in a Bunnies team which wasn’t all that consistent.

Walker’s ability to break a game apart is the one factor which makes you want to tip South Sydney in this one. Melbourne’s defence is excellent, but few teams have been able to slow down Walker, as evidenced by ten tries and almost 100 metres per game last year.

Because of his excellent combination with Adam Reynolds, Walker is allowed to play his natural game without fear, and it makes the visitor’s left edge lethal, as it has been for some years.

It may not have been top of the line in 2020, but it’s still the Rabbitohs’ best attribute with the ball.

(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)

Latrell Mitchell
12 months ago, the question surrounding Mitchell was “would he ever be able to play fullback at the level required in first grade?”

The question still hasn’t been answered in full, but we are slowly getting there. His improvement throughout the course of 2020 was clear for all to see, with some of his late-season games in particular setting a course for greatness.

Consistency across the entire 80 minutes and his defence still have questions, and they will be tested in a big way by Hughes, Munster and Papenhuyzen, but if Souths are to leave Melbourne with two competition points, expect Mitchell to have a massive game.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Moving away from the spines now, and the forwards are going to have a big impact on this one.

For Melbourne, the loss of Dale Finucane through injury leaves a big gap to fill. Moving across to lock is Nelson Asofa-Solomona, and the man-mountain will have a monstrous roll to play.

Asofa-Solomona has the advantage of size and agility. For a big man, he has excellent footwork, and with lock being virtually an extra play-maker in a prop’s body in the modern game, it will be a severe test for the Kiwi.

However, he will be tasked with sticking to his guns, making his team big yardage and defending solidly. The defensive end will be of utmost importance to Asofa-Solomona, given the job Finucane usually does at that end of the park for Melbourne.

Cameron Murray
The test for Asofa-Solomona becomes even more severe when you consider Cameron Murray is lining up as his opposite number.

They are completely different players in that Asofa-Solomona is a giant and Murray not so, but Murray’s quick play the balls and as a result, combination with Damien Cook, needs to be on song from the word go in this one.

While the Rabbitohs are a little up in the air as to the Murray and Arrow battle for lock long-term, the Blues representative is one of the Rabbitohs most important, and most consistent, players, and will need to play out of his skin to shut down the Melbourne pack.

There is no question that, as with a majority of early-season games, the contest in the middle will go a long way to determining the final outcome of the match.

This will be even more so the case this season as the game continues to be played at a quicker pace thanks to a handful of extra rule changes. The six-again rule being expanded, among others, might work a treat for the general viewing experience, but it will leave the forwards gassed from the outset.

That being said, the battle of the coaches and the way they have prepared their teams during the super short pre-season will come under the microscope. Both coaches are masters of their craft, but the Storm have a fantastic Round 1 record, having not lost a season-opener since 2004.

While they may struggle for game management without the experience of their former captain on the field, that void will be filled by the likes of Munster and Jesse Bromwich.

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Souths have the advantage of a balanced spine who will be familiar with each other, but their game management and consistency from week to week lacked a little in 2020.

It may have been a very different sort of season, given the COVID hold-up, rules being changed after the start and constant bubbles, but that doesn’t mean Souths shouldn’t have gone better than they eventually wound up.

They will continue to improve, and another full pre-season at fullback will only aid the development of Latrell Mitchell, who should become one of the best in the game with the new rules, playing on the back of the explosive Damien Cook.

However, trying to do that against the defensive force of the Storm will be difficult. There is simply no doubt about the fact Melbourne have worked defence to a fine art, and scoring points against them is the ultimate test, even with their changed middle third. Of course, the question around Cook’s form is also lurking, with the South Sydney rake far from his best throughout 2020.

Given the Rabbitohs defensive record last year was substantially worse than the five teams ahead of them, but their attacking record either almost on par or ahead, it essentially is what the game will come down to.

Can Bennett’s side find a way to breach the Melbourne side often enough and make the most of all their opportunities? That comes down to an improved Cook, and the combination of Reynolds and Walker, but one would suspect that the answer may be no.

Making the most of opportunities has also let South Sydney down over the last two years, and that is a result of the sometimes exubrant way they play, but you simply can’t afford to be wasteful against a side like Melbourne, because it will come back to bite.

Cameron Smith might be gone, but defensive structures aren’t built around a single player, and that, in short is where Melbourne should have the edge in this season-opener.

Prediction

This is a game which has a genuine feeling that it could go either way. With no Smith, the two sides are very evenly matched across the park. Trial form is worth little when it comes to the first ball being kicked in anger, but at home, and with a flawless Round 1 record, the Storm are rightfully favourites. This should be a great match to start the season whichever way it turns out.

Storm by 4.

Key game information

Kick-off: 7:50pm (AEDT)
Venue: AAMI Park
TV: Live, Channel 9, Fox League
Betting: Storm $1.87, Rabbitohs $1.93 (odds from Play Up)

Teams

Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Brandon Smith 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Interchange/Reserves: 14. Chris Lewis 15. Tui Kamikamica 16. Tom Eisenhuth 17. Nicholas Hynes 18. Darryn Schonig 19. Cooper Johns 20. Trent Loiero 21. Tyson Smoothy

South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Alex Johnston 3. Dane Gagai 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Cody Walker 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Thomas Burgess 9. Damien Cook 10. Tevita Tatola 11. Jacob Host 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Cameron Murray

Interchange/Reserves: 14. Benji Marshall 15. Mark Nicholls 16. Keaon Koloamatangi 17. Jai Arrow 18. Patrick Mago 19. Jaxson Paulo 20. Tautau Moga 21. Troy Dargan

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