Season 2021: Who will win, who will fail and who’ll get sacked?

Everyone has an opinion in regard to what will happen in 2021. The difference between everyone else’s guesses and mine is that the ones I’m about to reveal to you are backed up with hard statistical data, not just some gut feelings.

This is the time to pick upsets

While our good friends at PlayUp may not appreciate me telling you this, the first round of the NRL is a time when the bookies are relying on last year’s form to set the odds. Statistically, this weekend is your best chance for a roughie to get up.

So, if you’re a betting person (and if you are, please do it well within your means) this is the weekend to pick an upset or two. By Round 3, the form line will be more predictable as the sheep and goats sort themselves out.

Who will win the NRL premiership?

Here is the horrible truth people: There is a 87 per cent likelihood that the 2021 NRL premier will come from just eight sides: the eight 2020 finalists.

The stats bear it out distinctly. In the 23 seasons to date of the NRL, 20 of the premiers played in the previous season’s finals series. Only the Panthers (2003), The Wests Tigers (2005) and Roosters (2013) go against the grain on this stat.

So, while the Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Wests Tigers, Warriors and Titans may make the finals this year, they will not win the premiership.

Next, the stats show that 13 of the 23 premiers (56.5 per cent) had won a title within the last five seasons. So the Storm, Roosters and Sharks (all finalists in 2020) will be liking that stat.

Then, history shows that ten of the 23 Premiers (43.5 per cent) were preliminary finalists within the previous five seasons before lifting the trophy. So, the Eels and Knights really drop off with these last two stats, leaving the Panthers, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Storm and Raiders really standing out as the contenders.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Add to that the fact that eight of the 23 Premiers were runners up within the previous five seasons and the likelihood of one of those six sides being this year’s champion is at almost unbackable odds.

So, which one of them will it be? The Storm are challenged by the stat that there has only been one back-to-back premier in the NRL era. However, the Roosters just beat that hoodoo.

One of the Roosters and Storm has played in 17 of the 23 NRL deciders to date (74 per cent), so there is a three in four chance that at least one of them will be playing on the final day of season 2021. You can’t rule out either as a genuine contender.

Three times the runner up from the previous season has won the comp and the Panthers are unlikely to fall away in 2021. The Rabbitohs have their best roster in years and a fire in their belly, and the Raiders are back at full strength.

Both should give the competition a good shake. The only side I don’t see being contenders from the six statistically clear contenders are the Sharks.

So who will win? Without wanting to sound like a broken record, I’m predicting the Sydney Roosters to be victorious again this year.

Who will drop out of the eight?

History shows that an average of three non-finalists will make the finals in 2021 at the expense of 2020 finalists. So, who are the three sides that are going to slide out?

This is always a tough question as injury usually plays a bigger role than simply looking at the roster each side has before the start of Round 1.

However, I think the Sharks are in for a tough year. They just made the finals in 2020 and not much needs to go wrong for them to go worse. While Wade Graham would make any starting 13 in the NRL, the same can’t be said for many of his teammates. I think they’ll struggle in 2021 to maintain the pace with the leaders.

The Newcastle Knights have a fair bit of talent mixed with turmoil. They could go either way and I won’t be surprised to see them miss the eight.

The Parramatta Eels made the top four in 2020 but then got bundled out in straight sets. While there are some really great rising talents in their squad (Reed Mahoney, Dylan Brown, Maika Sivo), there are also a lot of players with question marks over them in regard to how well they perform when the blow torch is on the belly.

Which coaches will get the chop?

Season 2020 was the equal most dire for coach sacking in the NRL era, with five of them getting the chop. Steve Kearney, Dean Pay, Anthony Seibold, Paul Green and Paul McGregor all got their marching orders.

I predicted four of these pre-season and was publicly ridiculed by a number of pundits for my call on Seibold.

All in all, 56 coaches has been sacked during the NRL era at a rate of 2.4 a season. This season I only see one coach who is in distinct danger.

This is partially the case as so many clubs changed over last season and will be loathe to not give their new bloke a fair go.

Safe as houses are Craig Bellamy, Trent Robinson, Wayne Bennett, Ivan Cleary and Ricky Stuart. Only a significant scandal can remove any of them.

Kevin Walters, Todd Payten, Anthony Griffin, Des Hasler, Trent Barrett and Justin Holbrook all should be pretty secure in their positions, barring disastrous results.

There are three coaches who are under more pressure than others and I won’t be that surprised if they are sacked this season.

Adam O’Brien at the Knights will be okay if the results are good. The likes of Bradman Best, Tyson Frizell, David Klemmer, Daniel Saifiti and, of course, Kalyn Ponga could see things go very well.

However, a few injuries and some other bad luck could see things go pear shaped and O’Brien under lots of pressure. I suspect O’Brien will be okay.

Nathan Brown is now at his third club, having been moved on by the Dragons and the Knights. He has now landed at the Warriors – who hold the NRL record for sacking coaches with seven since 1998.

However, they are yet to sack a coach within their first season so, barring major disaster, Brown should be okay – just don’t discount major disaster happening.

Brad Arthur is now entering his eighth season at the helm of the Eels. In that time, his side has played six finals and lost five of them. While the Eels played finals in 2020, anybody who doesn’t think there are real question marks over the pedigree of the blue and gold squad are kidding themselves.

As stated above, there is lots of talent in the team but they don’t look like real contenders. If that form doesn’t materialise in 2021 it is hard to imagine that the powers that be at Bankwest Stadium won’t be looking at the option of taking the team in a new direction, under a different coach. This could go either way.

Eels head coach Brad Arthur (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

It is John Morris who I really see in peril in 2021. Morris found himself coach of the Sharks at the start of 2019 when Shane Flanagan was deregistered by the NRL.

In two seasons, he has achieved a 45.8 per cent win rate, making the finals both years.

However, both seasons have seen his sides exit the finals in the first week. Last year they scraped into the finals with fewer wins than losses. Further, they did not win one game against the other finalists during the season.

Wunderkind Bronson Xerri is suspended. Paul Gallen has finally hung up the boots. Matt Moylan has only played 18 out of a possible 46 games in the last two years and has been unimpressive when he has played.

The list is carrying ageing stars in Josh Dugan (30), Shaun Johnson (30), Aaron Woods (30) and Andrew Fifita (31), with only Fifita not off contract at seasons end.

I could be wrong, however I suspect that things are about to go quite badly for the Sharks and – if they do – Morris will be shown the door, possibly before season’s end.

The wooden spoon

Ten of the 23 NRL wooden spoons have been taken by just three sides: the Knights (four), Eels (three) and Rabbitohs (three).

I don’t see any of those sides getting the spoon this year. While I also don’t see any of the Broncos, Bulldogs, Cowboys or Sea Eagles getting the spoon this season, the stats are strong that one of the sides that finished in the previous season’s bottom four are very likely to claim the spoon.

The three strongest contenders for the spoon from outside this quadrate are the Dragons, the Sharks and the Warriors.

Rule out the Cowboys as Todd Payten proved last year his coaching credentials. They may well make the finals. Surely Kevvie Walters will get the Broncos off the foot of the table, even if not very far up.

Trent Barrett has a clean slate at the Bulldogs and will likely see some improvement at Belmore and I just can’t see the Sea Eagles getting their first ever spoon in 2021.

So, for me, either the Dragons or the Warriors will come last in 2021.