Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs: AFL Friday night forecast

The AFL has wasted no time setting up the Adam Treloar derby, with the ex-Magpie set to face off against his old side in the first Friday night match of the season.

Treloar’s controversial departure from Collingwood this past offseason was one of the most protracted and dramatic in recent memory. As much as Treloar doesn’t strike me as someone out to stir controversy (I interviewed him a few years ago and he was one of the kindest people I’ve spoken to), he’ll be the headline in this match and every act of influence he has over it will have another layer of meaning added to it – whether he likes it or not.

His departure from the Pies and arrival at the Dogs also contributes heavily to each club’s respective outlook for 2021. Most people have the Dogs rising up the ladder and challenging for a top four spot – or even the flag – and have Collingwood headed out of the top eight and into the abyss.

Even without the Treloar factor, this would still be a must-watch match.

Neither side would be too pleased with how 2020 played out on the field.

The Pies scored a famous win in Perth in the first week of the finals, but were badly exposed as the pretenders many thought they were against Geelong in the semis.

Those close to the club still believe they’ve got the cattle to finish inside the top eight, but big deficiencies in their game were uncovered last season – and their disastrous trade period only made them worse.

But the Bulldogs don’t get off the hook either. After getting obliterated in an elimination final against Greater Western Sydney, they went out and bought themselves a shiny new key forward and a shiny new key defender – only to not finish any higher.

They did well to recover from a horrid start to the year, but the club’s struggles appeared to be rooted in attitude and work rate at times, rather than ability, and no amount of talent will be enough if that isn’t rectified.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Three burning questions

What have the Magpies actually lost?
Treloar, Jaidyn Stephenson, Tom Phillips and Atu Bosenavulagi left via trade, while Travis Varcoe, Tom Langdon, Dayne Beams, Lynden Dunn and Ben Reid all hung up the boots.

Some players on that list were well and truly out of the best 22 anyway, but there’s still a lot of output across multiple statistical categories that needs replacing.

I touched on it in a piece last week, but Treloar was clearly one of the Pies’ best midfielders last year despite only playing ten games. He led the club in disposals (27), contested possessions (13) and clearances (5.3) per game and was second for inside 50s (four) – all extraordinary numbers given the shortened matches.

Stephenson may have plateaued since his stunning 2018 campaign, but it was that electric play inside 50 that got within five points of a flag that season and, while you can argue he may never get back to those heights, you can’t deny Collingwood have struggled without his scoring output.

Steele Sidebottom’s absence will exacerbate any midfield weaknesses, but you’d imagine we’re about to learn very quickly just how different the engine room looks for the Pies in 2021.

How does the bulging Bulldog midfield actually work?
Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter – and now Treloar.

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That is one extraordinary midfield. The ‘too many cooks’ argument is a cliché bordering on cop-out (remember when everyone thought Tom Lynch would get in Jack Riewoldt’s way?), but it will be interesting to see how Luke Beveridge assigns and juggles roles to get the best out of all of the above names.

Does it mean almost a full year of Bontempelli playing up forward? Look out if it does.

Who kicks the goals?
Both of these sides enter the year with question marks around their forward lines.

The Dogs probably have more talent coming through with Aaron Naughton and Josh Schache, whereas the Pies have a more established goalkicker in Brody Mihocek – but there’s still a lot up in the air.

Will Tim English work up forward with Stefan Martin playing in the ruck? Does Naughton eventually move to his original position down back to give Schache and Josh Bruce more of a shot? How patient can the Dogs afford to be with Bruce after his horrid first year with the club?

As for Collingwood, they need to unearth someone capable of assisting Mihocek up forward. Jamie Elliott is still good for a couple every now and then and Josh Daicos looks the goods, but Mason Cox has had more than enough time to prove his preliminary final heroics weren’t the exception.

Quick stats

• Collingwood have won their last four matches against the Bulldogs – the most recent being a 52-point demolition in Round 1 last year.
• Prior to that, however, the Bulldogs had won five straight against the Magpies. Their last win was in in Round 1, 2017 – Travis Cloke’s first game for the club.
• Last time these teams played, Brodie Grundy (35 hit-outs, 13 contested possessions, 19 disposals, one goal), Brody Mihocek (three goals) and Steele Sidebottom (26 disposals) collected the votes.
• Scott Pendlebury averages 28 disposals, five tackles and five clearances against the Bulldogs – all higher than his career averages.
• Both sides have only won one of their last four matches at the MCG.

(Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Prediction

If pre-season sentiment was what actually decided results, the Bulldogs would win this match by 100 points. They enter tonight as the warm favourites regardless, but the egg they laid in this match last year has to weigh on everyone’s mind.

The Dogs should be mature enough to deal with the pressure of expectation and favouritism – and they’ll have their work cut for them against an experienced side who will still keep opponents honest no matter what happens this season.

But the absence of Steele Sidebottom through injury puts such a hole in the Magpie midfield that I can’t realistically see them getting too close.

Bulldogs by 26 points

That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?