I know I’m a broken record, but I’m a facts kinda guy, so writing about how player X is better than player Y doesn’t work for me as there is little measurable to judge them on.
I grew up loving American football – I’ve graduated to Canadian football, but that’s a story for another day – and you can arguably compare players merits based on statistics in those games and many other sports besides.
So I’ll start the discussion on something that is quantifiable and relevant.
I cannot comprehend the method the NRL uses to schedule it’s games each season. If we look at the top six teams from 2020 (I know they might not all be as strong as they were last season – did anyone say Cameron Smith? – but so far it seems a safe bet they are) and look at their opponents this season and then compare that to the bottom six from 2020, some questions arise.
You might expect the top six (Melbourne, Penrith, Parramatta, Sydney, South Sydney and Canberra) would play each other home and away as they are the cream of the crop and not deserving of an easy draw. In the main we find that, yes, each top six team plays ten games (home and away) against the other five top six teams.
No, wait. The Raiders (fifth), Rabbitohs (sixth) and Panthers (grand finalists no less) each play only nine games within this group. Hmm. I get why the fifth and sixth teams might get a slight lessening of the strength of opponent, but a grand finalist? And a team that set a record for consecutive wins too?
Oh well, you’d at least expect the top six teams would be slated to play the bottom six only once each and then the middle four twice each – do the maths and it adds up to 24 games. That would be a sensible approach.
Well, wouldn’t you know it, but the NRL (in their wisdom?) have the top six teams playing a bunch of games against last season’s and possibly this season’s lesser lights.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
But this is where it gets really bizarre.
The Panthers (again?), Eels and Rabbitohs play ten games against the likes of St George, Wests, Manly, North Queensland, Canterbury and Brisbane. Ten games! For the statistically minded, 42 per cent of their schedule is against the worst teams.
No way any of them should play the bottom six more than once. The Panthers and Eels were beneficiaries of similar easy draws last season, which was the subject of my first article on The Roar.
But wouldn’t you know it, the Storm play these easybeats only six times. Now, that’s at least what it should be for all the top six, but somehow only the Storm with six and the Raiders with eight have been treated that way. Hmm.
Now for the bottom six. I discovered that they all play at least seven games against top-six opponents. Incredibly last season’s worst team, the Brisbane Broncos, are being asked to play 11 games against top-six clubs! Eleven games! Good luck trying to bounce back from your worst season ever.
I’m sure there are factors involved in scheduling 16 teams – there are historic match-ups to consider and maybe even venue issues for all I know – but on any assessment the NRL schedule has no obvious rhyme or reason.
Unless, that is, you’re a Panthers, Eels or Rabbitohs fan – and that’s not having a go at you guys; it’s not like you lobbied for this. It just coincidentally fell this way.
Again.
Spartacus
Roar Rookie
"I grew up loving American football" Which franchise do you (did you) support? Perhaps you might agree with me then that the NRL badly needs to adopt a trade draft system, an injured reserve list and a two conference system to help level the playing field. That and make sure that the Roosters are salary cap compliant each year. :laughing:
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
The time to adopt a new system is when the NRL adds Perth, Adelaide, The Sunshine Coast and the Brisbane Ravens or Currawongs or Butcher Birds. This would mean 19 rounds where all teams play each other once. No complaints about easy draws and the weekend before the three State of Origins could accommodate the split round. They should not give two points for a bye as all teams get one and you can tell which ones by the games played column. They should also change the game points to differentiate between normal and golden point wins and losses.
Nico
Roar Rookie
I don't have so much of an issue about whether my team (Broncos btw) plays 10 games or 11 games against the top 8 sides, given some of the placings will no doubt change (eg Roosters look fairly likely to go down a few spots this year after losing Keary) and we already have a bit of a leveller already with Origin and salary cap. But the scheduling is pretty questionable, with upcoming games against the Storm, Rabbitohs, Panthers and the Eels over the next 4 weeks, our season could be as good as over by round 7 and could see a real drop off in fan interest (unless we have another coaching crisis to fill the void). I think the NRL's biggest issue with the draw is transparency, they need some sort of measure to communicate to fans why the draw is as it is and why their team has to play so many games against top/bottom sides
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
They did adopt the AFL’s MacIntyre system for a while. It was rubbish.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
The NSWRL asked me to submit an eight team finals system in 1995. I gave them a two group system where group A (1,4,5,8) and group B (2,3,6,7) played the top 4 system that the NSWRL adopted in 1954. This system was released to the public but there were complaints that some games could be duplicated so they added the cross over before the preliminary finals. There were duplicate games in 1994 and there would be duplicate games in the new system but not before the grand final. I preferred the Davies system as it had the best chance of 1 v 2 and the grand final teams will not have played each other before the grand final. 2. They copied the VFL's system in 1954 because the NSWRL did not always have a grand final as it only gave the minor premiers the second bite at the cherry.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
No mate i'm not. You don't necessarily improve the quality of lower sides by smashing them regularly.
Wild Panther
Roar Rookie
A supporter of a bottom 6 side? Should be more worri d about improving to quality of the lower sides. Not lowering the bar for them. Yawn
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
A 'balanced' allocation of Prime Time TV slots would see the Broncos not be on TV every Friday night. Likewise balancing the allocation of Game day for all 16 clubs would also limit how many Friday Night gigs the Broncos would get. I mean, who do they think they are, Australia's Team ?
Chris Love
Roar Guru
Couldn’t they make a ladder conference in the same scenario instead of a geographical one? Top 9 sides play each other twice (16 games) and the top v bottom conference once (9 games)? With possibly the bottom teams getting the home game advantage when playing the top teams?
Chris Love
Roar Guru
I bet if you asked the Broncos. Should they have a choice between a schedule that gives them more games against bottom 8 sides and less against top 8 sides but they lose prime time TV slots when ever they play those sides. The Broncos would not kill their golden goose. I’m happy for a ranking based schedule to be implemented as close as possible. But I also want all clubs to have the same chances of attracting sponsors etc with the most balanced Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday games as it can possibly get.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
Everyone's ignoring Penrith have 10 games against the bottom 6 clubs from last season, none of whom are setting the world on fire so far. 10 games and only 9 against the Top Six. Someone in League HQ likes the Panthers right now.
Nat
Roar Guru
I don't think you can devise a draw based on where one team finished last season. It's incumbent on the poor team to get better, not compensate for them. When you're starting from the bottom, all draws are going to seem difficult. At a count, Brisbane play a 2020 top 8 side 15x in 25 rounds and that includes the Sharks and Kinights 2x each in the last 10 rounds. IMO it starts harder than it finishes for Brisbane. If Brisbane finished 9th last season, still below average, their draw would not seem as difficult.
Big Daddy
Guest
Andrew is definitely correct in saying that home and away is the only solution. Most major leagues around the world in any sport play home and away except the NFL. They player conference so they get away with it. If we increase teams to 18 that makes home and away a bit more difficult but also makes conference a little bit easier. We have had had home and away in rugby league for a long time and I would like to see it return . Maybe reduce semi finalists to say 5 or 6 as non performing teams seem to make the 8 and have no impact. Reward the good teams not the average of ones.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
No I haven't and wouldn't know how or expect they'd be interested enough to reply. Been following the League since the 70s and have not often been impressed with their managerial acumen. They do tend to just copy other sports in what they do. You can bet IF the AFL went to Conferences, the NRL would follow suit instantly.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I take your point but it's interesting to consider all the possible structures they could use. 2 Conferences of 8 would see a 22 game season, 14 games in your conference and 8 out.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
I look forward to reading that.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
teams will run dead to finish 9th before the redraw, instead of 8th.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
2 conferences is more symmetrical. Then have the top 4 out of the 2 conferences in the finals, 1v4, 2v3. With 3 conferences you start getting into 2 of the 3 conference winners getting the week off, team with the worst record plays this team, etc. Unnecessary complications Also, if conference standings determine the finals you'd want to weight those conference games more heavily
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
why not three conferences/divisions, 10 in your division, 12 out. 22 game season. done.
zonecadet
Roar Rookie
or the bottom 8 and top 8 in that current season play each other again. That would be 22 games. I like that as a suggestion.