Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats: AFL Friday night forecast

What better way to kick off another weekend of footy than with a mouth-watering grand final rematch?

What’s more, both Richmond and Geelong come in to tonight’s blockbuster not quite having enjoyed the form they thought they would at this stage.

It’s far from doom and gloom; the Cats humiliated West Coast by 97 points two weeks ago, while the Tigers ended the Western Bulldogs’ unbeaten start to the season last Friday night.

But both teams are out of the top four as it stands with 4-3 records – and the journey to double-chance territory will be made that much harder for whoever goes down.

Richmond fans will point to last season’s slow start and scoff at any suggestions they’re in peril and, when you’re the back-to-back reigning premiers, we’re obliged to take their word for it.

However, 3-3 was technically Richmond’s worst start to a season since the pre-Hardwick premiership era and those three losses have come against teams sitting above them on the ladder – two of them being fairly hefty defeats.

Are they still the cream of the crop?

Geelong, on the other hand, have clearly pushed all their chips to the middle of the table after an aggressive offseason spent trading in everyone they could sign. So far, they’ve looked (with notable exceptions) pretty clunky.

Two of their four wins have come by under a kick – one in controversial circumstances and one against an opponent who had no right to push them that far – while they looked very uninspiring in their comfortable win over North Melbourne.

The Eagles obliteration is a terrifying reminder of what they’re capable of – but are they capabale of producing that level every week?

Chris Scott addresses his Geelong side. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Three burning questions

How much of a difference does Jeremy Cameron make?
Before last year’s decider, I wrote that the only way Geelong were going to knock off Richmond was if they played a second key forward alongside Tom Hawkins.

They didn’t do so in that match, losing by five goals, but then went out in the trade week and nabbed themselves one of the very best in the modern game.

The article I wrote last October discusses at length how the Cats know the exact style of game they need to play to counter Richmond, but it constantly falls apart going inside 50.

We haven’t seen a lot of the Hawkins-Cameron monster in 2021, but ten goals from two games is a pretty decent base to work off and they’ll take great inspiration from the combo of Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch at the other end to know this caper can work.

Last year’s finals series proved beyond doubt that it’s virtually impossible to beat the Tigers with a solo key forward setup. Hawkins averaged 12 disposals and 2.4 goals a game in 2021 – he had ten touches and one goal in the decider.

In the preliminary final, Charlie Dixon was held to nine touches and a goal after kicking 33 in his 17 matches beforehand.

You need more than one target – or a completely unpredictable setup – to worry the Tiger backline. You can understand why they weren’t comfortable picking Esava Ratugolea or Josh Jenkins as that option in the past, but now they’re out of excuses.

Cameron needs to be the difference-maker for the Cats tonight.

(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Are the Tigers really back to their best?
One swallow does not make a summer but, if you’ve won three flags in four years, one good game can be enough to signify you’re back at full speed.

Especially when that’s a fairly comprehensive shutdown of the undefeated flag favourites sans Dustin Martin.

As one of our many crowd contributors pointed out midweek, it’s silly saying “the Tigers are back!” – they never went away in the first place.

Richmond continue to make a mockery of modern statistics and, whenever you think you’ve found a deficiency, you invariably discover they were just as ‘bad’ in that area as a flag year.

Third-last in clearances? They were second-last in 2020.

13th in contested possessions? Exactly the same as last season.

Third-last in marks? That’s actually a new one.

It’s not a lot, but last season the Tigers took 3.1 fewer marks per game than their opponents, whereas this year that’s ballooned out to almost 19. The Swans chipped their way around the MCG to a big win in Round 3 and the Demons enjoyed a 25-mark advantage in their five-goal win two weeks ago.

I’ll keep plugging my article from last year until I’m blue in the face, but playing patient, uncontested marking footy is the only way to avoid falling into Richmond’s traps. We all pinned our hopes on West Coast a few years ago for this very reason and, although it’s a small sample size, other teams look to be clueing in. This could be worth following.

Where to from here for the side that goes down?
Can you make the top four from 4-4? Of course you can.

There’s probably some nerd on Twitter who can crunch the numbers and conclude that it’s impossible for whatever reason – but it’s not. It’s not game over for whoever tastes defeat this evening.

The Tigers have got GWS (MCG), Brisbane (Gabba), Adelaide (MCG), Essendon (MCG), West Coast (Optus), St Kilda (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon), Collingwood (MCG), Brisbane (MCG), Geelong (MCG), Fremantle (Optus), North Melbourne (G), GWS (Showgrounds) and Hawthorn (MCG) from here on out. There are 11 games there, by my count, where they start very warm favourites.

So, if they fall to 4-4 tonight, they’re still looking at 15-7 come September. The last team to miss out on the double chance (outright) with that record was the Western Bulldogs in 2016. They were pretty good, from memory.

As for Geelong, they’ve got St Kilda (Marvel), Gold Coast (GMHBA), Collingwood (MCG), Port Adelaide (Adelaide), Western Bulldogs (GMHBA), Brisbane (Gabba), Essendon (MCG), Carlton (MCG), Fremantle (Optus), Richmond (MCG), North Melbourne (Hobart), GWS (GMHBA), St Kilda (GMHBA) and Melbourne (GMHBA). Hmmm, not as simple.

I’ve got them as favourites in nine of those contests, which means they’d finish 13-9 with a loss tonight – that won’t get you top four. However, I’m giving them home losses to the Bulldogs and Demons – the Kardinia Park factor could easily make that 15-7 which is top four town.

So, long story short, the Tigers are doing just fine and, while the Cats will need to fight a bit harder, top four is very much in reach for them to.

Put it this way, if either side misses out on the double chance, they won’t be looking back at this match as the one that got away.

Quick stats

• Richmond kicked nine goals to two in the second half of last year’s grand final to win by 31 points.
• The Tigers have won six of the last seven meetings between these sides, including more finals wins in 2019 (preliminary final) and 2017 (qualifying final).
• Prior to the 2017 finals, Geelong had won 13 in a row over the Tigers and a whopping 42 of 50 meetings dating back to 1984.
• Richmond haven’t won four in a row over the Cats since a five-game streak that ran from 1948-1950.
• This is the first time since 2010 a Richmond-Geelong game hasn’t featured Trent Cotchin.

The Tigers are confident they can cover Trent Cotchin’s absence. (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Prediction

The Tigers are who we thought they were. That’s why you take the field.

Yes, they’ve still not quite reached the lofty heights of recent seasons just yet, but they’ve got their heads well above water and served us all a timely reminder against the Bulldogs that, when push comes to shove, they’re still the team to beat.

Geelong may be 4-3 as well but, in my books, they’ve only played one or two really good games this season and seem to be very under Richmond’s spell.

Tigers by 21 points

That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?