Look, it’s not gone well for the Australian sides, there’s no two ways about it.
And with four wins no longer possible for the Aussie sides, the interesting part of SR-TT over the remaining three rounds becomes the race to the inevitable all-Kiwi Final on June 19.
So, here’s a little change-up: in lieu of a Sure Thing this week, I’ve asked the guys to lodge a quick prediction three weeks out around who meets in the Final. As I mentioned on Tuesday, it’s crazy to now think that four wins almost certainly won’t be enough.
Oh, and a bit of early week drama this week!
Digger and I figured that since we never got to see The Crowd’s tips released before the weekend’s games, that the logical conclusion was that no-one lodged tips to contribute to The Crowd’s selections, and therefore no points should be recorded for Round 3 at all.
I mean, the argument may well exist that you lot should lose points, but far be it for me to rule on that…
Sadly, the rest of the Eds confirmed in Dan’s absence that The Crowd had in fact picked the Kiwi sweep. So, boo…
LAST WEEK: Harry and The Crowd 5, Dan and Geoff 4, Brett and Digger 3.
OVERALL: Harry and Dan 42, Geoff and The Crowd 40, Digger 36, Brett 34.
Harry
TIPS: HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, REDS, HIGHLANDERS
Plot reveal. An Aussie team will win this week. Just one.
That team will win because it will squeeze and pressure a Kiwi squad. It won’t try to play an NBA-style fast break.
Will it be the Force, in Napier, against the flaky-shaky Hurricanes? No. The Canes will keep on scoring and conceding at a 3:2 or even 2:1 ratio.
What about the Waratahs up against a Crusaders team which would win a Rugby World Cup quarterfinal? No.
Brumbies? They’re rough. Tough. They capitalise. But no. The Blues will dominate them in the physical department and run away with it.
The Rebels? Come on. The Clan will counter-rebel and rule. Aaron Smith passes like a god. Antoine Dupont with his floaty high passes can only dream.
The Reds will carry the Australian flag high. They’re not the smartest of the Flogged Five. They’re not the most clever. But just like their coach, they can sharpen their minds by narrowing their minds. JOC to win it with a drop goal.
FINAL PREDICTION: BLUES v CRUSADERS – because they are the least dependent on one or two stars, and they score in bunches, and they can really crunches.
Codie Taylor. (Photo by Dianne Manson/Getty Images)
Dan
TIPS: HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, REDS, HIGHLANDERS
Dan’s a bit laid up at the moment, though he did manage to send through a text with his thoughts for this week:
“Pencil me in for four New Zealand teams and the Reds,” he said.
Tempted as I was to leave Marist St. Pats, Lincoln, Papatoetoe, and Green Island submitted on his behalf, I relented in the end and eventually concluded he would have meant teams playing Super Rugby.
Bryce Hegarty. (Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
Geoff
TIPS: HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, CHIEFS, REBELS
This is a very strange tipping contest. Start with the assumption that all five NZ teams will win, then try to find a reason why an Australian team will upset them.
And then when you find it, have the guts to go through with it and actually tip them!
Ardie Savea returns this week; that’s a big minus for the Force. While in Wollongong, it’s all minuses for the Waratahs against the Crusaders. No hope, surely.
The Brumbies in Auckland… now that’s something that would normally grab my interest. They’ll be much harder in the contest this week, but their scrum is simply going too poorly right now.
The Reds should be a big chance in Townsville, but I really like the focus that the Chiefs bought last week. And their front row.
Bring on the ridicule but the best chance for an Australian result this week, sits with the Rebels. Not just because the Covid situation might see them awarded two points for a ‘draw’, but because they’ve won the last two against the Highlanders and match up pretty well against them.
And Scotty will be there too. He must know something. I can see the big Caboose right now, tearing up at the prospect of doing it for Scotty.
FINALIST PREDICTION: CRUSADERS v CHIEFS – It’s going to take five wins and a handful of bonus points to make the final. The Crusaders have already beaten the two Australian finalists, so they’re one. Assuming they get through this week, the Chiefs are a good bet for the other spot.
Digger
TIPS: HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS
The bounce back factor was alive and well last weekend, just that I fell into the trap of thinking it would be the Australian sides to do so. You do expect improvement from the Oz sides but then we cannot forget the NZ sides will also improve.
The Force in Perth are a difficult proposition, but away from home has yet to be determined in this trans-Tasman version. ‘Canes by plenty and the Crusaders too.
You do expect both the Reds and Brumbies to be better than last week, but I do not think the Reds know how they need to play tactically and the Brumbies appeal as the most likely.
But the Blues look to be running into a decent form patch and at home look too good to ignore. And finally, the Highlanders should paint a pretty picture in scenic Queenstown.
FINAL PREDICTION: CRUSADERS v BLUES – Based on the draw, one side will likely be the Crusaders given they have now beaten both the Brumbies and Reds and from what’s left, I will eliminate the Hurricanes and Highlanders who both have to head to Canberra which appeals as the toughest away venue in Australia.
I will back the Blues to make the final from here, given they have maximum BP and a tremendous points differential thus far compared to the Chiefs.
Brett
TIPS: HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BRUMBIES, CHIEFS, HIGHLANDERS
I’m with Harry; one Australian side will win this weekend. But I’m still working my way through which one.
I’m pretty sure it won’t be the Force, though it would be a hell of a win if it was. They rank fourth in terms of best defence in trans-Tasman – higher than both the Hurricanes and Crusaders – but where they’re going to run into trouble is attack – and they rank ninth for tries scored, with only the Rebels behind them.
Domingo Miotti of the Force passes the ball. (Photo by Will Russell/Getty Images)
And we can safely put a line through the Waratahs and Rebels. Which leaves the Brumbies or Reds, and it’s a bit of a toss-up.
If there’s an NZ team capable of emulating the way the Crusaders ripped the Reds apart from kick-off, it’s probably the Chiefs. They blew the game apart in six last weekends, ensuring the Brumbies couldn’t come back, and have shown themselves to be a team capable of scoring tries in clumps. And then, they’re sporting what might just be the form backrow in New Zealand.
But then, I simply cannot overstate the temptation I have in front of me, in creating the ultimate win-win by picking the Blues and watching them implode against the Brumbies in Auckland. It’s quite the conundrum, and I think I’m going to have to come back to it.
FINAL PREDICTION: CRUSADERS v CHIEFS – The Crusaders seems an obvious choice, so it comes down to who they’ll face. And while I have a funny feeling about the Highlanders getting through, I think it might actually be the Chiefs.
The Highlanders will be eyeing bonus point wins at home against the Rebels this week and Waratahs next week, but then have to get to Canberra.
But I think the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Reds in Townsville this weekend than the Highlanders are to win in Canberra in a fortnight’s time. A win this weekend, and the Chiefs will be eyeing off similar BP winning finishes over the Rebels and Waratahs to finish unblemished.
And with that point about the Chiefs this weekend, it would seem I’m taking the Brumbies.
OVER TO YOU – what is your tip for the Super Rugby trans-Tasman finalists?
| Harry | Brett | Dan | Digger | Geoff | The Crowd | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUR v FOR | HUR | HUR | HUR | HUR | HUR | HUR |
| WAR v CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU | CRU |
| BLU v BRU | BLU | BRU | BLU | BLU | BLU | BLU |
| RED v CHI | RED | CHI | RED | CHI | CHI | CHI |
| HIG v REB | HIG | HIG | HIG | HIG | REB | HIG |
| Overall | 42 | 34 | 42 | 36 | 40 | 40 |
| Last week | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Get your tips in now.
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ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Hi RT, sorry about the late reply. Only saw 20 minutes highlights of the Blues vs Brumbies match. Very impressive, the wheels totally fell off the Brumbies cart and I must say it could all be sheeted to the way the Blues man-handled them. They can't blame injuries or send-offs they were totally dominated. Perhaps it's the year of the RT after all. LoL
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
“I won’t be surprised with a bumper round for Aussie sides winning 1-3 games.“ You might not be surprised but all the bookies and odd framers would be flabbergasted.. Take a multi with the three Aussie sides you think will win, out a few bucks on them then retire for life! :silly: :silly:
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Haha! Thugby, I’d stop smoking’ that stuff .. didn’t your parents warn you of the consequences of artificially deranging your mind? Read it here first, the un-named colour team the BLUES will be in the final to play the Canes .. all these two teams need to do continued with a BP win and Crusaders won’t be in the final. You must be nuttier than a fruit cake if you really think the BLUES will roll over this weekend when in fact you know they need and will score 3 more tries than that ACT mob at the Garden of Eden. The Canes will do the same and the Crusaders will not make the final. The Crusaders have enough silverware anyhow :happy:
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
groansssssssssssssss :sick:
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
I don't think Trevor Hosea of the Rebels is into Chooks, ala Tennessee style! :laughing:
ThugbyFan
Roar Guru
Have been flying the Aussie flag for the past two weeks and getting flogged, dropping 2 games every weekend. The Tahs have more chance of winning in Wollongong by 50 against the Borg than I have of Tipping Glory in 2021, so bu99er it I'm gonna tip two Aussie sides again. So who wins? The crazy attack style of the Hurry Cains versus the structured defence of the Force. It wouldn't surprise to see the Force leading the Canes about the 55 min mark as I don't think there is much difference in the two run-on sides. Then the Canes bring on their subs (ArdieS and V.Aso) and its all over, Red Rover. Interesting to see T.Kuridrani returning for the Force. The battle of the centres will be worth the gate money. Canes by 10.
Them Noble Tahs to pull an upset.Nah just kidding, The Borg by heaps. Sadly! :crying: The rest of Saturday will be St Aussie Day. The Un-Named Colour will crack under the pressure of the Brumbies. As with the Force, the structure of the Brumbies game will force RT's mob to crack trying for flash tries and they will leak points like an old geezer with massive prostate problems. The Blues' heavyweight subs will come on (Nepo, Patrick and Akira) but too late, Brumbies roll home by 8. What happened to Ofa Tuungafasi and Jacob Rats Knees, being rested or injured? Reds have beefed up for the Chiefs so have brought back ASY at #6 with L.Wright at openside. The backline is massively changed, finally the two Fijian wingers are on the run-on side. Their main problem with the backline is did they discuss who is gonna cover who while shaking hands during the warmups. I expect the Reds to come out a bit more savvy, rather than leaking 25 odd points in the 1st 8 minutes, and play a more nuanced game. They have the forwards and attack to win this game; just have to stop leaking silly tries. Oh and hopefully someone, anyone, even the bl00dy janitor, has told them about how to kick smart, not down the throat of backs who live off unstructured counter-attacks. The only way the Rebels will win this one is if the Highlanders relive the RWC1995 final and eat too many crook shish kababs and babaganouj at Coogee's finest on Saturday night. That leaves 12 hours for the bugs to work on those penguin duodenums and colons. Rebels are playing better as more troops return from the sick/broken bay but are just not gelling as a unit. Highlanders by +15. In Short: Hurricanes, Crusaders, Brumbies, Reds, Highlanders. Crusaders and Chiefs for mine. Crusaders should score the max in their last 3 games while the other 4 will like drop a match or two. Their opponent will either be the Chiefs or Highlanders. Even if Reds beat the Chiefs, the Hamilton Boyz should get a losing BP and that will get them into the big dance.WEST
Roar Guru
The Force might not know what they’ve got themselves into.. some having never traveled to NZ to play Super Rugby before. The Force haven’t played in NZ since being kicked off SR in 2017. Might be educational
Ankle-tapped Waterboy
Roar Rookie
The Tahs are currently third on the ladder of the Australian teams. You cannot dispute that.
Double Agent
Guest
When you just consider the names it's quite possible that a man with a moniker as ludicrous as Twiggy could have a financial advisor named Johnny J-Dog! :laughing:
Hopper
Guest
I guess you are new to rugby.Trial matches don`t count.
Muzzo
Roar Rookie
Not really moa, as i've been there & around that area many moons ago, & it really was quite remarkable. Lol :laughing: :silly:
Carlin
Roar Rookie
Haha good stuff mate.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Gents. I would like to entertain the idea of at least one Aussie team to win. Same as last week. And the week before - Haaazzaåæāàaäáaa: thanks for voting on the Reds. But I hope you didn't put money on it! - Dan: Marist, St Pat's, Lincoln, Papatoetoe, and Green Island will have a better chance of winning this weekend - GP: re Rebels: three words - Away Tryless Nugget - Digs: Agree Versing Learnings (or lack of) - BeeMc: Brums missing firepower taking its toll. But I wouldn't go as far as bemoaning their physicality and their bad versing
Nobrain
Roar Guru
At this point the kiwi teams are playing their hearts for not being the first to loose against an aussie team. That could be a bigger news than wining the title.
Ex force fan
Guest
Glad the game was moved to Sydney.
Ex force fan
Guest
The 400% improvement was duly noted. Well done Brett. My point stand that the Force are snubbed when it comes to media coverage of TT competition and our games are often ignored.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
You mean Riccardo “if Crusaders are good enough to make the final”, the BLUES will be there waiting for them :silly:
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
Yep I have gone for the sweep too Muzzo. I cannot do otherwise, after last week shambles.
Rugby Tragic
Roar Rookie
I reckon Highlander, that Geoff had some inside information choosing the Rebels for an upset victory. He must of known all along that the game was going to shift back to Australia to give the Rebs in “home ground” information (meaning in Australia, not necessarily Melbourne). Yep that’s it, all along I’ve been saying “that Geoff Parkes” is a very astute tipster, but it is now been confirmed that he operates on non public information just like an inside trader ... Hmmm
Fox
Roar Guru
Auckland Blues 55 – Brumbies 23 Reiko Ioane and Sotutu will score if they start and the Brumbies once much vaunted scrum will get completely cactussed with the tingling pain from the spines lingering long after the game by the near (very in form) AB Blues pack sending the horses running back to the hills. Crusaders to put the Tahs to the sword in a bloodbath that will make the fall of Jerusalem in 1099 and subsequent slaughter that followed look like an average day at the local meat works. Crusaders 61 Tahs 17 The Chiefs will have it tough in the first 10 of each half and somewhere for 10 in the middle but in between their backrow will dominate and unleash way too much class in DMac and company that with Brad Thorn reminding us of General Custer at Little Bog Horn and we all know how that went. Chiefs 46 Reds 25 Rebels – well the only rebellion they will have is by luck getting the game transferred to Australia. This disruption will no doubt impact the Highlanders – but the men in kilts from Dunedin have their own version of William Wallace in Aron Smith who will be too fast – too sharp – too slick and just plain too good for the Rebels. He will unleash wave after wave of attack with all his flair, speed, and tricks , sending their D into disarray just as he did the Reds. Highlanders 37 – Rebels 18 The Force are going to get found out this weekend as home track fighters who will travel like sheep on a boat on its way to the Middle East where upon a Hurricane will blow then drive them back to Perth. The Canes have Ardie Savea back this week and yet are resting some key players for this clash but the replacements look like they might even be scarier. Hurricanes 45 Force 19…at least 16 points in the last 20 min and Jordie Barrett and Laumape and Ardie to have real blinders. These scores are assuming fine to fine-ish weather not buckets of rain